FL-Quinnipiac: Obama in worse shape after budget deal

[Tender Branson]

The national debt ceiling deal does not rescue President Barack Obama's crashing job approval rating in Florida as he gets a negative 44 - 51 percent score among voters surveyed August 1 - 2, after the deal was announced, compared to a negative 44 - 50 percent score among voters surveyed July 27 - 31, before the deal, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a positive 51 - 43 percent approval rating for President Obama in a May 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.

Florida voters surveyed after the deal say 50 - 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, compared to a 47 - 46 percent split before the deal and 50 - 44 percent support for his reelection May 26.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the leading Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race, ties Obama 44 - 44 percent post-deal, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Obama lead pre-deal. Obama has double-digit leads over other top Republicans pre-deal and post-deal, except for Texas Gov. Rick Perry who trails Obama 44 - 39 percent post-deal.

"President Barack Obama's numbers in the key swing state of Florida have gone south in the last two months. The debt ceiling deal is not making any difference in that decline and any bounce he got from the bin Laden operation is long since gone," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The president's drop off is huge among independent voters who now disapprove almost 2-1."

The post-debt deal poll shows little change in Obama's May approval among Republicans and Democrats. But among independent voters he plummets from a 47 - 45 percent split in May to a 61 - 33 percent disapproval today.

Men, who approved 49 - 47 percent in May, disapprove in the post-deal survey 54 - 42 percent. Women go from 53 - 40 percent approval in May to a 46 - 49 percent split today.

From July 27 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 674 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent. August 1 - 2, 743 registered voters were surveyed with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The total survey of 1,417 registered voters surveyed from July 27 - August 2 includes 510 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1632

Obama vs. Romney

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

Florida Independents approve of the debt deal by double digits, but Obama's margin among Independents over Romney and Perry dropped by 20 points (!!!) after the debt deal. The margin remained mostly steady when matched against Bachmann and Palin.

[Rowan]

It seems like the samples were completely different.

[Tender Branson]

It seems like the samples were completely different.

Yeah, I wonder what kind of sample this is to produce a Obama vs. Romney tie.

Romney leads 89-4 among Republicans and 46-32 among Independents, while Obama leads 84-9 among Democrats.

A D+10 sample ?

[Tender Branson]

Adjusted for 2010 exit poll data, Romney leads Obama by 8 points.

Adjusted for 2008 data, Romney leads by 5 points.

[Tender Branson]

It must be at least a D+8 sample.

[Tender Branson]

2004 exit poll data has Romney leading 50-40.

[HST1948]

So junk poll?

[pbrower2a]

I am using post-deal polling by Quinnipiac which more favors Republicans and casting out pre-deal polling.  President Obama obviously has some credit or culpability for this deal which, in my opinion, practically ensures that there will be nothing like a full peacetime recovery for at least five years. Sure, the Republicans are at least as responsible (not that such is my preferred word), but it is what voters think, and I have but one vote.

More significantly, Florida has a thoroughly-corrupt Governor who will do anything to protect himself -- like rig the 2012 election -- to protect himself from criminal investigations or ouster. In a close election one of his toadies can be "worth" a few thousand votes. 
 
Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Perry

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

[tmthforu94]

I don't know how anyone could take this poll too seriously considering it's oversampling of Democrats...unless you want to cast Obama in better light in your maps.

Good news for the GOP - recent polling had me worried here. Perry's not doing so bad either. He's getting close to joining the group of Republicans who don't need a stock market crash in order to win.

[DrScholl]

If the best Romney can manage is a tie, then he's not as strong as he's being made out to be. I don't see how the sample matters much, seeing as Obama's approval is underwater.

[Tender Branson]

If the best Romney can manage is a tie, then he's not as strong as he's being made out to be. I don't see how the sample matters much, seeing as Obama's approval is underwater.

The sample matters a lot. This poll is too Democratic (ca. D+8) compared with historical turnout.

The current registration in Florida is 41% DEM, 36% GOP and 23% Others.

If the poll would have this sample (D+5), the results would be:

46-43 Romney

But usually Republicans have better turnout in FL than Democrats, like in 2004 and 2006. Only in 2008 it was D+3, in 2010 it was even. So it is very unlikely that Democrats will enjoy a 8% turnout advantage next year, when 2008 was one of the most favorable years for them.

[DrScholl]

If the best Romney can manage is a tie, then he's not as strong as he's being made out to be. I don't see how the sample matters much, seeing as Obama's approval is underwater.

The sample matters a lot. This poll is too Democratic (ca. D+8) compared with historical turnout.

The current registration in Florida is 41% DEM, 36% GOP and 23% Others.

If the poll would have this sample (D+5), the results would be:

46-43 Romney

But usually Republicans have better turnout in FL than Democrats, like in 2004 and 2006. Only in 2008 it was D+3, in 2010 it was even. So it is very unlikely that Democrats will enjoy a 8% turnout advantage next year, when 2008 was one of the most favorable years for them.

But the approval still says a lot here, if there were too many Democrats skewing the sample, wouldn't that equal better approval? And even with an adjustment, the numbers don't shift that dramatically.

[Tender Branson]

If the best Romney can manage is a tie, then he's not as strong as he's being made out to be. I don't see how the sample matters much, seeing as Obama's approval is underwater.

The sample matters a lot. This poll is too Democratic (ca. D+8) compared with historical turnout.

The current registration in Florida is 41% DEM, 36% GOP and 23% Others.

If the poll would have this sample (D+5), the results would be:

46-43 Romney

But usually Republicans have better turnout in FL than Democrats, like in 2004 and 2006. Only in 2008 it was D+3, in 2010 it was even. So it is very unlikely that Democrats will enjoy a 8% turnout advantage next year, when 2008 was one of the most favorable years for them.

But the approval still says a lot here, if there were too many Democrats skewing the sample, wouldn't that equal better approval? And even with an adjustment, the numbers don't shift that dramatically.

It shifts a bit.

In a tied election (36% DEMs, 36% GOPers and 28% Independents turning out) - like in most recent Florida elections - Obama's adjusted approval is down to 42% approve, 54% disapprove, instead of 44-51 in the DEM+8 sample.

[Umengus]

good for romney but especially for perry, who shows that he's viable at national level.

[TheGlobalizer]

Interesting:

Florida Independents approve of the debt deal by double digits, but Obama's margin among Independents over Romney and Perry dropped by 20 points (!!!) after the debt deal. The margin remained mostly steady when matched against Bachmann and Palin.

Hard to reconcile, but my best guess is that independents tend to favor budgetary discipline and increasingly see the GOP as the way to pursue it.  In other words, they see the debt deal as a victory for the GOP and identify with that victory.  They see a GOP moderate president as the way to obtain that outcome, and I think Romney and Perry are seen as moderate compared to Bachmann and Palin.  Maybe some gender bias in there, too (R-leaners who care about debt issues favor male R candidates?)

Just spitballing.  Wacky sample makes the brainstorming harder.

[pbrower2a]

Interesting:

Florida Independents approve of the debt deal by double digits, but Obama's margin among Independents over Romney and Perry dropped by 20 points (!!!) after the debt deal. The margin remained mostly steady when matched against Bachmann and Palin.

Hard to reconcile, but my best guess is that independents tend to favor budgetary discipline and increasingly see the GOP as the way to pursue it.  In other words, they see the debt deal as a victory for the GOP and identify with that victory.  They see a GOP moderate president as the way to obtain that outcome, and I think Romney and Perry are seen as moderate compared to Bachmann and Palin.  Maybe some gender bias in there, too (R-leaners who care about debt issues favor male R candidates?)

Just spitballing.  Wacky sample makes the brainstorming harder.

People are all for budgetary discipline until they start to experience hunger pr have to surrender such freedom as they have to corporate fat-cats  who 'offer' harsh terms of employment in return for a little bit of food.

Independents will demand an economic panacea from the spending cuts -- and when the jobs fail to materialize they will want a stimulus that the Hard Right cannot offer. No panacea means that President Obama runs as a populist and assails a bad piece of legislation.

[TheGlobalizer]

People are all for budgetary discipline until they start to experience hunger pr have to surrender such freedom as they have to corporate fat-cats  who 'offer' harsh terms of employment in return for a little bit of food.

Exactly who does this rhetoric describe?  I don't know many people who are fed by the government.  As for prostrating yourself before your corporate master, well, that's all of us, even yuppies like myself.

[pbrower2a]

People are all for budgetary discipline until they start to experience hunger or have to surrender such freedom as they have to corporate fat-cats  who 'offer' harsh terms of employment in return for a little bit of food.

Exactly who does this rhetoric describe?  I don't know many people who are fed by the government.  As for prostrating yourself before your corporate master, well, that's all of us, even yuppies like myself.

Outright fascism, the dream of America's economic elite.

[CatoMinor]

good for romney but especially for perry, who shows that he's viable at national level.

How is it good for him? He is trailing Obama in the poll.

[TheGlobalizer]

People are all for budgetary discipline until they start to experience hunger or have to surrender such freedom as they have to corporate fat-cats  who 'offer' harsh terms of employment in return for a little bit of food.

Exactly who does this rhetoric describe?  I don't know many people who are fed by the government.  As for prostrating yourself before your corporate master, well, that's all of us, even yuppies like myself.

Outright fascism, the dream of America's economic elite.

For the life of me, I have no idea what connection your comment has to mine.

[opebo]

People are all for budgetary discipline until they start to experience hunger or have to surrender such freedom as they have to corporate fat-cats  who 'offer' harsh terms of employment in return for a little bit of food.

Exactly who does this rhetoric describe?  I don't know many people who are fed by the government.  As for prostrating yourself before your corporate master, well, that's all of us, even yuppies like myself.

Outright fascism, the dream of America's economic elite.

For the life of me, I have no idea what connection your comment has to mine.

Dude, you asked a question - 'exactly what does this rhetoric describe' - and he answered it 'Outright fascism, the dream of American's economic elite.

I thought you Ivy-beating lawyers had to know how to read.

[TheGlobalizer]

People are all for budgetary discipline until they start to experience hunger or have to surrender such freedom as they have to corporate fat-cats  who 'offer' harsh terms of employment in return for a little bit of food.

Exactly who does this rhetoric describe?  I don't know many people who are fed by the government.  As for prostrating yourself before your corporate master, well, that's all of us, even yuppies like myself.

Outright fascism, the dream of America's economic elite.

For the life of me, I have no idea what connection your comment has to mine.

Dude, you asked a question - 'exactly what does this rhetoric describe' - and he answered it 'Outright fascism, the dream of American's economic elite.

I thought you Ivy-beating lawyers had to know how to read.

Who, not what.  Who the f*** is "fascism"?  It's a concept, a political ideology.  He was making a comment that people like fiscal discipline until they're starving.  Who's starving?  Fascism?  What the f*** sense does that make?

MY ANSWER TO YOU IS COMMUNISM, THE DREAMLAND OF GRANOLA OPTIMISTS AND UNEMPLOYABLE TRADESMEN THE WORLD 'ROUND

There, I showed you both!  My point is unassailable.

[pbrower2a]

People are all for budgetary discipline until they start to experience hunger or have to surrender such freedom as they have to corporate fat-cats  who 'offer' harsh terms of employment in return for a little bit of food.

Exactly who does this rhetoric describe?  I don't know many people who are fed by the government.  As for prostrating yourself before your corporate master, well, that's all of us, even yuppies like myself.

Outright fascism, the dream of America's economic elite.

For the life of me, I have no idea what connection your comment has to mine.

Dude, you asked a question - 'exactly what does this rhetoric describe' - and he answered it 'Outright fascism, the dream of American's economic elite.

I thought you Ivy-beating lawyers had to know how to read.

Who, not what.  Who the f*** is "fascism"?  It's a concept, a political ideology.  He was making a comment that people like fiscal discipline until they're starving.  Who's starving?  Fascism?  What the f*** sense does that make?

MY ANSWER TO YOU IS COMMUNISM, THE DREAMLAND OF GRANOLA OPTIMISTS AND UNEMPLOYABLE TRADESMEN THE WORLD 'ROUND

There, I showed you both!  My point is unassailable.

The compulsion to prostrate oneself before elites who have the ability to determine who gets a basic need and who doesn't indicates a lack of freedom, at least for those whose needs become objects of exploitation.   

[TheGlobalizer]

The compulsion to prostrate oneself before elites who have the ability to determine who gets a basic need and who doesn't indicates a lack of freedom, at least for those whose needs become objects of exploitation.   

Understand and agree.  How does that alter that people demand fiscal responsibility from their government?  And what circumstances (historical or hypothetical) do people demand the government deficit spend on FOOD?

This almost makes my point for me -- what people really want is both fiscal responsibility and the essentials to be taken care of.