NV-PPP: Romney remains the frontrunner
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  NV-PPP: Romney remains the frontrunner
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Author Topic: NV-PPP: Romney remains the frontrunner  (Read 685 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 04, 2011, 03:12:18 PM »

If the candidates for President next year were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Mitt Romney.................................................... 31%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 18%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 10%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 10%
Ron Paul......................................................... 9%
Herman Cain................................................... 7%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 6%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 1%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 1%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 6%

If Sarah Palin didn't end up running for president, and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Mitt Romney.................................................... 31%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 18%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 14%
Ron Paul......................................................... 11%
Herman Cain................................................... 8%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 2%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 1%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NV_0804.pdf
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2011, 04:00:52 PM »

Romney is supposed to have NV in the bag. This lead is too small.
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California8429
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2011, 04:06:38 PM »

Romney is supposed to have NV in the bag. This lead is too small.

It's a caucus so this poll really isn't worth anything :/ I wish we could get results for those definitely attending the caucus or extremely likely.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2011, 04:26:31 PM »

Romney is supposed to have NV in the bag. This lead is too small.

It's a caucus so this poll really isn't worth anything :/ I wish we could get results for those definitely attending the caucus or extremely likely.
Me too. I also would like a poll question with only Perry, Bachmann and Romney because most caucuses will likely come to that.
Either way it is still disturbing for Romney to see his lead like this. I thought he would reach 40 or 35 at least.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2011, 04:42:08 PM »

Romney is supposed to have NV in the bag. This lead is too small.

It is about the same as his NH lead.

Perhaps not of the supposedly "in the bag" states for Romney are as solid as they should be.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2011, 05:58:49 PM »

Romney is supposed to have NV in the bag. This lead is too small.

It is about the same as his NH lead.

Perhaps not of the supposedly "in the bag" states for Romney are as solid as they should be.

Well if you do compare it with 2008 you will see such a dramatic shift.

Mitt Romney   22,649   51.1%   18
Ron Paul           6,087   13.73%   4
John McCain   5,651   12.75%   4
Mike Huckabee   3,616   8.16%   2
Fred Thompson3,521   7.94%   2
Rudy Giuliani   1,910   4.31%   1
Duncan Hunter   890           2.01%   0
Total                   44,324   100%   31
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2011, 06:03:58 PM »

Well none of the other top candidates (McCain, Rudy, Huck, Fred) put any time or effort into NV, unlike Romney. Considering that, it is reasonable to assume that some of that 51% was the result of him being the only real contender there. What was the NV polling like in 2008?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2011, 06:05:24 PM »

Romney only broke 30% once in a poll in Nevada in 2008. The poll average on here gave him 26-21 over McCain going into the election. So you can't compare polls to caucus results.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2011, 06:16:51 PM »

Is NV using a caucus again in 2012?
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2011, 08:04:41 PM »

Romney only broke 30% once in a poll in Nevada in 2008. The poll average on here gave him 26-21 over McCain going into the election. So you can't compare polls to caucus results.

Ah okay I did look it up and you're right about that and I concede there. I still would love to see a poll with only the first three candidates. The demographics here in NV are supposed to favor Romney a lot.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2011, 09:53:40 PM »


Yes.
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California8429
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2011, 10:17:02 AM »

Romney sent an e-mail out to close supporters a month ago stating they were going to win New Hampshire and Nevada, Iowa and South Carolina would be good bonuses. So this will hurt him if he doesn't win because he won't win Iowa and South Carolina looks bleak with enough social conservatives and southerners running.
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