2012: Battle Royale

[NHI]

Prologue: Time for a Change

Pres. Obama's approval ratings dipped to 37% following the downgrade of the US' credit rating. Americans had reached their limit. An economic recovery that was promised, had yet to come and there showed no it coming at all. Unemployment still remained high, foreign competitors like China seemed ready to seize on the United States' inevitable fall, and many Americans believe wholeheartedly that the US' best days were long behind.

The American people wanted change. They wanted a change from Barack Obama and his policies. They wanted new leadership, the only problem was that nothing seemed to becoming from the opposing side. While Mitt Romney appeared as the Mr. Fix-it on the economy, many American were unsure if he was the man for the job.

Something dramatic needed to happen. Many voices called for a third party candidacy to shakeup the two parties, many called for a better selection of candidates. However in August of 2011 the American people got something that they did not take as change at first, but eventually would realize the event would be the beginning of America's revival.

At 10:00 AM, after a brief discussion with the President earlier in the week, Sec. of State Hillary Clinton submitted her letter of resignation to Barack Obama, then headed on a plane for New York. The media had heard rumblings of Clinton's sudden resignation late Thursday night and began to speculate on her departure.

Clinton arrived in New York, then headed for Liberty Island, where a large crowd awaited. Standing with her husband, daughter, her husband and her mother she took the stage and proclaimed to the crowd around her, and to the entire country.

"I am running for President of the United States in 2012."


The news sent shockwaves throughout the country, and through the Democratic Party. Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz was caught off guard by the announcement, having only watched it live on TV. She delivered a short, but somewhat scattered statement, in response to Clinton's announcement.

"This is certainly surprising." --Debbie Wasserman Schultz

The entrance of Hillary Clinton as a candidate for the Democratic Nomination was something that was speculated in Washington, but never seen as a reality. Yet, with the downgrade of the US' credit rating, the lack of credible GOP candidates and the declining American economy Clinton decided to act.

She had publicly denied any intention to run for President, but personally was torn. Reportedly it was the loss of America's triple A credit rating and Obama's sinking approval ratings that forced her into the race. While many progressives saw the candidacy as a way to vent their frustrations with the Obama Presidency, many were divided on Clinton's entrance into the race.

Many Democrats saw this as a replay of 1980 with Kennedy, Carter and the Reagan reelection. While some realized that no Reagan-like figure occupied the GOP field, some worried a divided democratic party would give way to a Romney victory.

Then came the question: What if she won? (The Nomination), could the party unite behind her, while the incumbent Democratic President sat on the sidelines. Many assumed the answer would be No.

Within a few days of her big announcement, Pres. Obama continued his campaign for reelection, visiting many swing states, but refused to comment on Clinton's entrance, only offering the response: "We'll see who wins."

In a head-to-head matchup Clinton still trailed the President, but among Independent voters and even some more moderate Republicans, Clinton was favored overwhelming compared to Obama.

Obama: 58%
Clinton: 40%

Clinton: 60%
Obama: 37%

Should Hillary Clinton challenge Pres. Obama for the nomination?
NO:   50%
YES:  47%

Though the numbers that caught some Democrat's attentions, particularly Howard Dean was the general election match ups. With Pres. Obama's approval ratings declining almost daily, many insider's fears were realized when they saw his numbers against more realistic Republican candidates.

Romney vs. Obama:
Romney: 52%
Obama:   44%

Pawlenty vs. Obama:
Pawlenty: 49%
Obama:    45%

Huntsman vs. Obama:
Huntsman:  50%
Obama:       45%

Bachmann vs. Obama:
Obama: 47%
Bachmann: 45%

When polled against Clinton the numbers changed dramatically.

Clinton vs. Romney:
Clinton: 49%
Romney: 46%

Clinton vs. Pawlenty:
Clinton: 51%
Pawlenty: 43%

Clinton vs. Huntsman:
Clinton: 54%
Huntsman: 42%

Clinton vs. Bachmann:
Clinton: 58%
Bachmann: 39%

Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida polling:
Clinton vs. Obama

IA:
Obama: 47%
Clinton: 44%

NH:
Clinton: 50%
Obama: 44%

FL:
Clinton: 50%
Obama: 41%

It was announced that CNN would host a debate between the two candidates in October in New Hampshire. 2012 to many was starting to resemble 2008, though it would not be, by a long shot.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Wow I'm gonna love this one! Hillary vs Obama! Will any other Republicans and Democrats enter the race?

[NHI]

Chapter I: Calm before the Storm

In the days following Hillary Clinton’s entrance into the race some Democrats began to worry about their party’s prospects come November 2012. While some insiders worried, many were applauding the move by Clinton and saw it as a great way to cause the President to move more to the left; even some announced their support of Hillary Clinton, publically stating that Clinton would be the better President.

At an event to a crowd of 2,000 people former governor of Pennsylvania Ed Randall announced his strong support of Hillary Clinton for President.

“She is the fighter we should have elected in 2008, but we won’t make a mistake twice. Hillary will be the fighter we elect in 2012.



In the national polls Clinton began to see an uptick, which began to worry people inside the Obama campaign.

Clinton vs. Obama:
Obama: 47%
Clinton: 45%



As Clinton continued to make her way across the country she slammed Pres. Obama for his “failed leadership on the economy, and failing to bring the change he promised to Washington.”

With one Clinton came two, and the former President let loose his thoughts on the incumbent. “I had to deal with a Republican congress and Republican Senate. This guy has one out of two, so he don’t have it as bad as I did, and look at what we did, then compared to what he is doing now.”

Clinton seemed to hone his message as he traveled with Hillary to New Hampshire. “We had a recession the time I took office, and by the end of my first term unemployment was done, and the economy was growing. I don’t see that happening now and I know it won’t happen if we keep Pres. Obama as our candidate.”


When it was time for Hillary to take the stand she delivered a volley of verbal assaults onto Pres. Obama, but one became a staple with the media and the campaign.

“Twenty years ago it took a Clinton to clean up after a Bush, we’re still in the mess spawned by the second Bush, the only trouble is what was started by Bush has been made worsened by Obama, and I never thought I’d find myself saying this, but it’s going to take a Clinton to clean up what Obama has worsened.”

Despite the attacks that kept coming Pres. Obama remained tightlipped on his criticisms on Hillary Clinton. As David Axelrod stated, “The President wants to stay focused on the general election and his opponent from the Republican side, so we’re sticking to the issues, not politics.”

As Clinton prepared for the debate, Obama announced a week before it that he would not debate Clinton, citing that his focus was on governing, not politicking.

Clinton responded to it swiftly, “He’s been in office for almost four years and now he’s concerned on governing. You have sold out our party in the interests of being liked by the Republican Congress. Mr. Pres, the American people elected a new President, not a Clone of George Bush!”

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney seemed cruising towards the nomination. Bachmann was struggling to stay relevant, and Rick Perry had decided to stay out of the race and endorsed no one.



Romney continued to attack Pres. Obama for his failed leadership on the economy, while he offered a few jabs at Hillary Clinton, Romney like Obama avoid taking her on directly. Insiders from the Romney campaigned feared a Clinton candidacy.

However, the Romney campaign and the Republican field got a jolt over Labor Day weekend, when Sarah Palin announced her campaign for President of The United States. In her announcement she attacked Pres. Obama and GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney as the status quo, that it was time to end the grip of the establishment in Washington!


Palin quickly rose to frontrunner status, knocking Bachmann out of the top tier and engaging with Romney directly. With Clinton and Obama, and Romney and Palin the race for 2012 had truly begun!

As Clinton continued her campaign for the President and began unveiling her positions and plans for a possible administration, Obama finally agreed to debate Clinton in a single debate in New Hampshire. With his approval ratings continuing to slide, Clinton surprisingly remained relatively high. Having left with a 69% approval, her numbers remained steadied at 60%

Obama vs. Clinton:
Obama: 47%
Clinton: 46%

Romney vs. Palin:
Romney: 26%
Palin:      26%
Bachmann: 14%
Paul:           12%
Gingrich:       9%
Huntsman:    5%
Pawlenty:       4%
Other:            3%

The media began its speculation on the real possibility of Hillary Clinton winning the nomination, though the question remained could she unite the party, or would she suffer a fate that many thought would befall Romney if he won his nomination.

[NHI]

Chapter II: The Race to New Hampshire

Hillary Clinton continued to climb in the polls, matching, even in some cases surpassing Pres. Obama. The Democrats picked Pres. Obama managed to hold on his core supporters, Clinton had hers and disaffected Democrats, but the progressives seemed to be evenly split.

On the issue of Iraq and Afghanistan Clinton remained a tad elusive on her criticisms of the President's continued involvement of the US wars, particularly the US involvement in Libya. Many saw this as Clinton's achilles' heal, since she played a great role in US diplomacy. Even Bernie Sanders admitted that he did not see a difference between the two candidates on the issues involving foreign policy. However former senator from Wisconsin Russ Feingold praised Clinton for challenging Pres. Obama, saying, "It needed to be done."

"I've said what I've thought about the President's spineless leadership."

However, where Clinton seemed to hold the advantage over Pres. Obama was wooing the disaffected left. She grilled Obama for abandoning the hope and change that was promise, and instead of uniting America, he was merely dividing it.


Her attacks seemed to be weakening Obama who saw his approval ratings dip to an all time low of 34%, coupled with an uptick of the unemployment rate. October 2011 saw it spike up to: 9.4%. Americans were angered at the depressing economic news, and the lack of leadership from the White House.

With his approval rating tanking Pres. Obama agreed to debate Clinton in a sole debate at New Hampshire's St. Anselm's College. The debate was seen as draw between the two candidates, but many thought Clinton had the upper hand. While there was discussion of policy, the night was remembered for Clinton's zingers of Pres. Obama.



Clinton: "Mr. President, I think the question that remains tonight is: Are the American people better off than they were four years ago this time. I believe the answer is No, and if we're to win in November then  Mr. President we need a candidate who can go toe to toe with someone like Romney or Palin."
Obama: "Dividing our party is not what leads to victory. 1980 proved that, Hillary."
Clinton: "Mr. President, the Republicans are not putting Ronald Reagan up next year, and this is not 1980. Our party wants leadership, the American people want leadership and I want to be the candidate, and if elected I will be that President."
Obama: But if by-
Clinton: "You've done so Mr. President. The politics of yes, we can are more like, no, we didn't."

The last line drew both applause and criticism from the media. Hardball host Chris Matthews chided Clinton for attacking the President, but in the same breath compared her favorably to democratic challengers like Ned Lamont. "The President had been been bullied by the republicans. It's like the giant elephant in the room, and no one dares say anything, we'll give 'em hell Hill is."

Clinton vs. Obama: IOWA
Obama: 48%
Clinton: 48%

On the Republican side Romney and Palin seemed to be heading for a death march towards the convention. Most of the media speculated that Palin would win New Hampshire and Romney would win New Hampshire and they'd fight it out the rest of the way, barring a surprise win by Paul or Bachmann.


The Iowa Caucus came with Clinton attacking Pres. Obama in a series of mailers, critiquing the country's economic malaise on the President. However the results would not be decided for hours on the Democratic side. Yet, on the Republican side produced a winner quickly. Sarah Palin was announced the winner at eight o'clock, followed by Bachmann and Ron Paul, with surprisingly Romney coming in fourth.

IA:
Palin....... 35%
Bachmann.....33%
Paul...............14%
Romney........12%
Other.............6%

For the majority of the night Clinton led Obama, but by ten thirty Pres. Obama was declared the winner, narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton.

IA:
Obama.......48.74%
Clinton.......48.69%

Pres. Obama sounded like the second place finisher, instead of the winner when he addressed his supporters. He knew how close the results were, and that bothered him, and he knew that one defeat over Clinton would not silence her candidate. As the two headed towards New Hampshire Pres. Obama campaigned liked the underdog, but the polls did not look promising.
As Clinton arrived in New Hampshire she received the endorsement of Senator Jeanne Shaheen, where she proclaimed, "Hillary Clinton is the change we need and the one we will elect in 2012!"


A few days later Hillary Clinton scored a large victory over Pres. Obama that caused doubts among many inside the White House. David Axelrod was noted for saying, "Margins like that are tough to beat."

NH:
Clinton.....59.5%
Obama.....38.2%

While New Hampshire was a successful night for Hillary Clinton, it was not a successful night for Sarah Palin who was trounced by Romney and Huntsman who came in second. Palin's shocking finish was seen by many as the end of her candidacy, but she promised to campaign onto South Carolina

NH:
Romney.....50.4%
Huntsman....30.6%
Bachman.....11.8%
Palin...............4.3%


The results of the first two contests in the nominating states provided no hints towards who the nominee would be of either party. The one who seemed to be more certain was Mitt Romney's who's comeback in New Hampshire was seen as needed, while on the Democratic side, no candidate could declare victory yet, but her twenty point win over Pres. Obama was troubling to many who Pres. Obama as falling from the public view, and began to become more comfortable with Clinton as the parties' leader.

Perhaps the biggest blow from the New Hampshire primary was the rise once more in the unemployment rate (after staying at 9.3% for a few months) to 9.6%. This caused many democratic insiders to turn to Pres. Obama and began to wonder if it was time for him to bow out like Lyndon Johnson did 1968...

[NHI]

Chapter III: The Fall of One, The Rise of the Other

Tim Pawlenty ended his Presidential bid and threw his support behind still GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney, stating, "He will be the President who will reverse economic decline in America." Other candidates such as Newt Gingrich ended their campaigns as well.


Hillary Clinton continued her campaign against Pres. Obama, calling on him for failed leadership when it came to the economy. "The President cannot serve another term, for he will lose the election to the Republicans, because of his policies. I am the candidate who will defeat the Republicans, because I can go toe to toe with someone like Romney or Palin and campaign on the issues and win!"

The Nevada Caucuses produced Romney and Clinton once again as the winners. Clinton used the high unemployment rate to defeat Pres. Obama.

NV:
Clinton....60.0%
Obama.....37.4%

NV:
Romney....51.1%
Huntsman....29.0%
Bachmann.....12.8%
Palin..............5.4%

However, the battle was brewing in South Carolina. Bachmann and Palin competed heavily in the state, effectively splitting the vote, leaving Romney and Huntsman to gobble up the remaining pieces. Pres. Obama hoped to stop Clinton from achieving a third straight win. He had beaten her four years earlier in the state and was confident he could do it again.

Clinton offered to debate Obama again, but the President refused, citing he was governing. The decision made the President appear weak and timid, and news photo appeared in TIME, portraying the President as in over his head.


Around this time Debbie Wasserman Schultz reportedly spoke to the President, regarding his reelection bid, stating that, "Maybe it's time to to step aside." As Obama's approval ratings continued to dip, the President finally decided to engage Clinton one on one and attacked his former secretary of state.

"I'd like to see her do better. I inherited this mess, and while she may not have sat at the desk, she knew what type of trouble we were in when I came into office, and now she's trying to run as the outsider and the one with the solutions? Come on, come on. That doesn't work, shame on you Hillary."


The South Carolina primary came and Pres. Obama managed to turn the tide against him and defeated Clinton in the state, though by a much closer margin than expected. On the GOP side Romney managed to eek out a win over Bachmann and Palin.

SC:
Obama.....50.0%
Clinton.....49.2%

SC:
Romney.....33.5%
Bachmann...32.2%
Palin............30.8%
Huntsman.....3.3%

The President was reenergized by his win, albeit narrow in South Carolina, however Clinton was not deterred. She continued her attacks on Pres. Obama, calling him out of touch with the needs of American people and with the American economy. "You can give a speech, sure, but can you actually lead?"

During her speech she even evoked John McCain, saying he would have been a better President, than Obama. "I look at where we were three years ago and where we are today, you can't write this stuff and that's what's sad my friends. It's time for a change. That's what we thought we voted for in 2008, instead we just got more of the same. Bush minds well as stayed in office."

Who do you want to be the Democratic Nominee?
Clinton: 49%
Obama: 45%

Obama vs. Romney:
Romney: 50%
Obama:   44%

Clinton vs. Romney:
Clinton: 48%
Romney: 48%

In the Florida Primaries on the Republican side Mitt Romney pulled out another win, followed by Palin, Bachmann and Huntsman. The former governor of Utah ended his campaign and announced his support of Mitt Romney. The race came down to the two tea party queens and sensible moderate.

The Republican establishment began to circulate around Mitt Romney, seeing him as the realistic and most electable general election candidate. Chairman Reince Priebus reportedly said, "The democrats are tearing themselves apart, this is our chance, we've got to nominate Romney."

In Florida Clinton pulled out her third win over Pres. Obama in the crucial state, weakening him even more.

FL:
Clinton...53.9%
Obama....45.4%

Democratic insiders wanted the President to concede defeat, realizing that Mitt Romney was looking like the next nominee, and that a fight all the way to the convention would weaken the party. The President refused, citing that he would wait until Super Tuesday and then make a decision.

Many in the media were struck by Palin's candidacy, despite winning Iowa, she failed to place second in any state since. She appeared to be a flash in the pan and was winding down in influence, as Bachmann took center stage. Though when asked on the state of the race, "We don't have a nominee yet, and we need one who is a true conservative, that is how we'll win this time."

The remark was seen as a dig at Mitt Romney and the establishment and worries began to grow about Palin's intention if Romney became the nominee.

GOP:
Romney....38%
Bachmann....36%
Palin.............23%

[JerryBrown2010]

Bump!

[NHI]

Chapter IV: For the Sake of the Party

After a series of losses on Super Tuesday, Pres. Obama looked weaker than ever. His approval rating were tanking, and following a rise in the unemployment rate once more the President called a Press Conference from the White House Rose Garden. With Hillary Clinton by his side he conceded the nomination to her, citing: "The choice on the Republican side is not an alternative and I will not watch this party weaken over a continued fight to the convention. Therefore, I'm ending my bid for the Democratic Party's nomination, and proudly endorsing Hillary Clinton as the nominee of our party and the next President of the United States."


Obama's exit was widely praised by the Democratic Party, and with an economy still failing it seemed like the best move. As Hillary Clinton prepared her general election campaign the Republican Party began to gather around the nominee of Mitt Romney who trounced Sarah Palin in the Super Tuesday Contests.

Clinton vs. Romney:
Romney: 47%
Clinton: 46%

Pres. Obama Approval Rating:
A: 37%
D: 61%

However, as the Democratic Party united around Clinton, some feared that the nomination fight, coupled with a weak Democratic President could spell doom for her Presidential bid. By the spring Mitt Romney secured the nomination for the GOP side.

Uncertainty remained over Sarah Palin's prospects. She never properly conceded to Mitt Romney, and some suspected a possible independent bid was in the works. In the days following his achievement of the nomination the campaign reached out to Sarah Palin in her supporters and the Romney people leaked a list of possible Vice-Presidential choices:

Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
Michele Bachmann
Allen West
Rick Perry
Bobby Jindal



A few days later Hillary Clinton at a speech in Ohio rattled off the names of a few Vice-Presidential picks for her ticket. "People like Mark Warner, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, certainly Evan Bayh, but I'll have a pick in a few months."

Clinton vs. Romney Map:

Clinton: 233
Romney: 222
Tossup: 83

Who would make the Better President?
Clinton: 48%
Romney: 48%

Who are you voting for President? (Democrats)
Clinton: 79%
Undecided:  13%
Other:           8%

Who are voting for President? (Republicans)
Romney: 73%
Undecided: 16%
Other:        11%