Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Tender Branson]

What exactly makes SD so gay friendly ?

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania joins the gay-haters, according to the new PPP poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 36%
Illegal .............................................................. 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_1129513.pdf

Most likely the previous F&M poll was a bad one ...

[Tender Branson]

(CO & NC)

[Tender Branson]

Gallup also compiles their state data over the course of 1 friggin year.

I wouldn't trust a polling company that collects data by interviewing 1 person from NM each day.

[Tender Branson]

There are worse places than Alabama or Mississippi for gays though:

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[Tender Branson]

There are worse places than Alabama or Mississippi for gays though:

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Ouch.  Eastern Europe is nowhere near as socially liberal like everyone thought.

[Tender Branson]

France:

63% support

http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/les-francais-favorables-au-mariage-gay-14-01-2012-1811697.php

[Tender Branson]

Is it legal in France?

I think it's Civil Unions in France, but with almost all the rights like what a Marriage has. It's just not called marriage. But somewhere I have read that these Civil Union laws are so liked that even heteros want to register their relationships in these Civil Unions because they don't want it to be a Marriage ...

Maybe one of the French posters know more.

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

New Jersey voters support 52 - 42 percent allowing same-sex couples to marry, the first time support tops 50 percent.

On related issues, New Jersey voter opinions are:

    65 - 32 percent that same-sex marriage is not a threat to traditional marriage;
    53 - 45 percent that denying same-sex marriage is discrimination;
    69 - 26 percent support for New Jersey's same-sex civil union law;
    66 - 29 percent support allowing same-sex couples to adopt children.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1693

...

Maryland (Gonzales Research):

Maryland voters remain divided on the issue of same-sex marriage. Statewide, 49% favor a law allowing same-sex couples to marry (34% “strongly” favor and 15% “somewhat” favor), while 47% oppose same-sex marriage (38% “strongly” oppose and 9% “somewhat” oppose).

62% of Democrats support same-sex marriage, as do 56% of independents. Among Republicans, 76% are opposed to same-sex marriage.

Whites: 55-43 support
Blacks: 33-60 oppose

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20January%202012.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Washington (SurveyUSA):

A new KING 5 poll finds Washington state voters are very divided on the issue of gay marriage.

In a poll of 617 registered voters statewide on landlines and cell phones, KING 5 and SurveyUSA asked specifically, “If the legislature were to approve marriage for same-sex couples, and you were asked to approve or reject the law, how would you vote?”

In our poll, 47% said they would approve the law, while 46% said they would reject it; 7% said they weren’t sure.  The poll has a margin of +/-4%.

Gay marriage supporters are trying to pass a bill through the legislature during this session, but have not secured enough votes in the state senate.  Opponents say if the legislature were to pass a bill, they would collect signatures to force a referendum on the issue.

In the poll, younger voters were far more likely to support gay marriage with 50% saying they’d approve a measure, compared to 39% support among voters over age 65.  While voters in the King, Pierce and Snohomish County region voiced 50% support for a bill, voters in eastern Washington rejected the idea 54% to 38%.

The poll also found women voters more inclined to approve gay marriage (52% to 41% reject) than men (43% to 52% reject).

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-State-divided-over-gay-marriage-137689348.html

[Tender Branson]

That would be cool if it was passed/upheld in WA, NJ, MD, and ME this year.

If the polls are this close and it comes to a referendum in WA, MD and ME - it will probably not pass. Because gay marriage has in history always overpolled. Could pass in NJ though, but even there I'm not sure.

P.S. - What about the map?

[Tender Branson]

I always thought Minnesota was more progressive on these issues ...

[Tender Branson]

Maryland now favors it by a 50-44 margin, according to a new Washington Post poll:

[Tender Branson]

NJ now strongly in favor:

52-34

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/37459b64-548b-4dd0-8ccf-7985264ef9d5.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Iowa (Selzer):

A majority of Iowans oppose passage of a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.

The poll found that 38 percent favor a legislative initiative to pass a constitutional amendment, while 56 percent are against. Six percent aren’t sure.

The findings show little movement on the issue from February 2011, when 40 percent of those surveyed supported passing an amendment, while 54 percent were opposed.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120227/NEWS09/302270022/-1/SPORTS12/Iowa-Poll-Majority-opposes-ban-same-sex-marriage

[Tender Branson]

Maryland (PPP):

52-44 for gay marriage in a Nov. referendum

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-poll-shows-slim-support-for-gay-marriage-20120308,0,3650775.story?track=rss

[Tender Branson]

NC (Elon):

Would you [support or oppose] an amendment to the North Carolina constitution that would prevent any same sex marriages?

38% Support
54% Oppose

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/030912_Methodology.pdf

[Tender Branson]

NC (Elon):

Would you [support or oppose] an amendment to the North Carolina constitution that would prevent any same sex marriages?

38% Support
54% Oppose

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/030912_Methodology.pdf

PPP notes that this poll is useless, because it doesn't use the correct ballot language.

The PPP poll for NC that's currently in the field shows a result that is different by 50 points !

[Tender Branson]

New NC referendum numbers show a narrower margin, actually the narrowest ever:

Would you vote for or against a constitutional amendment to provide that marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State?

Would vote for it.............................................. 54%
Would vote against it ...................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Do you think that a 'yes' vote on Amendment One bans just gay marriage, bans both gay
marriage and civil unions, legalizes gay marriage, or are you not sure?

Bans just gay marriage ................................... 26%
Bans both gay marriage and civil unions ........ 36%
Legalizes gay marriage................................... 10%
Not sure .......................................................... 27%

If you knew that Amendment One banned both gay marriage and civil unions, would you vote
'yes' or 'no'?

Would vote 'yes'.............................................. 38%
Would vote 'no' ............................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry ..................................................28%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................25%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................44%
Not sure ... 3%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_424.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Homo-marriage now leads by 14:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/22/11812596-nbcwsj-poll-obamas-gay-marriage-announcement-a-draw?lite

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

[Tender Branson]

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota for the "Star Tribune" shows the following:

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http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/170854241.html

[Tender Branson]

Maybe there's still some hope left for the otherwise progressive Minnesota ...

(But for it to pass, gay marriage would probably have to lead by 5-10 in the pre election polls, because of the "Gay Bradley Effect")

[Tender Branson]

Gay Marriage heading for a blow-out victory in Maine:

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http://www.onlinesentinel.com/news/king-by-less_-obama-by-more_2012-09-29.html

[Tender Branson]

SSM leads 49-39 in a new MD poll from the Baltimore Sun:

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-09-29/news/bs-md-poll-20120929_1_opinionworks-new-baltimore-sun-poll-voter-turnout