Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Landslide victory ahead for the SSM referendum in WA:

55-40 support

http://www.krem.com/news/local/172959271.html

That doesn't look like a landslide to me.


Anyway, nice to see the club might get a few members this fall.

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota SSM amendment gets close:

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

47% Yes (-3)
46% No (+3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c5df6fe-ac56-44ec-ba5b-73fdf4769eab

[Gass3268]

Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin:

Q27
Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship.
Allowed to legally marry 45%
Civil unions 29%
No legal recognition 22%
Don't know (v) 4%
Refused (v) 1%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/MLSP13_Toplines_Likely.pdf

This is the second straight poll by Marquette to have marriage equality leading!

[Lief 🗽]

Minnesota SSM amendment gets close:

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

47% Yes (-3)
46% No (+3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c5df6fe-ac56-44ec-ba5b-73fdf4769eab

damnit

[Meeker]

Minnesota SSM amendment gets close:

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

47% Yes (-3)
46% No (+3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c5df6fe-ac56-44ec-ba5b-73fdf4769eab

damnit

It's moving in the right direction at least.

[greenforest32]

Another Minnesota poll from October: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/minnesota-marriage-amendment-narrowly-trails.html

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These seem too good: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/poll-support-grows-for-same-sex-marriage-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia/2012/10/09/969bea0e-1220-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_story.html

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[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's definitely getting more popular. Bloomberg announced a new PAC to support moderates. One of the requirements for being a moderate is support of SSM.

[Holmes]

Those Florida, Ohio and Virginia numbers are too good to be true, not that it matters. Those states aren't on the radar for same-sex marriage (as horrible as that sounds). As for Minnesota, those numbers also might be too good to be true - silver lining being that approve has to be above 50% to actually pass. So as long as neither are above a majority, it's fine.

[Lief 🗽]

On the bright side, it looks like the good guys will win in Maryland. It's leading 52-43 according to the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/maryland-leans-toward-historic-embrace-of-same-sex-marriage-in-vote-next-month/2012/10/18/a91dedba-1885-11e2-9855-71f2b202721b_story.html

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

On the bright side, it looks like the good guys will win in Maryland. It's leading 52-43 according to the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/maryland-leans-toward-historic-embrace-of-same-sex-marriage-in-vote-next-month/2012/10/18/a91dedba-1885-11e2-9855-71f2b202721b_story.html

People up here are also considering it almost a foregone conclusion in Maine.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm just worried that in Maine there'll be a "I probably support this, but I'm kind of annoyed that they're already making me vote on it again" backlash.

[Holmes]

On the bright side, it looks like the good guys will win in Maryland. It's leading 52-43 according to the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/maryland-leans-toward-historic-embrace-of-same-sex-marriage-in-vote-next-month/2012/10/18/a91dedba-1885-11e2-9855-71f2b202721b_story.html

I don't think that's enough for it to pass. ftr, I have it winning in Maine and Washington, losing in Maryland and Minnesota.

[Thomas D]

I'm optimistic about my home state of Maryland.

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota

St. Cloud State University poll shows the gay marriage ban failing:

Marriage amendment (likely voters)

44% vote for
51% vote against

http://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2012/10/st-cloud-state-poll-shows-slender-lead-opponents-marriage-amendment

Great news ...

[Tender Branson]

Gay Marriage now trails by 1 in MD:

47-46 illegal

Mostly because the Blacks switched over to the "illegal" side.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-ballot-poll-20121027,0,2752616,full.story

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Wtf.

Does Baltimore Sun have a good record?  I still expect it to pass, but that seems unexpected.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

If we still can't get any non-New England states to vote for gay marriage I might actually be equally or more depressed about this country and its people than I'll be if Obama loses.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If we still can't get any non-New England states to vote for gay marriage I might actually be equally or more depressed about this country and its people than I'll be if Obama loses.

Washington looks good and Wisconsin might be a target in the next cycle or so.  It isn't all bad.

[Holmes]

Gay Marriage now trails by 1 in MD:

47-46 illegal

Mostly because the Blacks switched over to the "illegal" side.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-ballot-poll-20121027,0,2752616,full.story

It begins.

[Tender Branson]

In MN the hetero marriage amendment leads by 1 now:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/176007971.html

[xavier110]

LOL. I can't wait until the gay marriage questions fail in all 4 states.

[Tender Branson]

In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

[Lief 🗽]

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

In MN the hetero marriage amendment leads by 1 now:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/176007971.html

18-34-year-olds only oppose it 54-44?  Um, okay.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

This is just unutterably upsetting and disheartening.

Even if retaining restrictions on the marriage franchise that cause more and more legal problems and social friction as their existence continues by narrow margins in popular referenda would somehow help resolve the real crisis of late secular modernity that this country and many others are in (which it won't), the fact that it takes all sorts of misleading or flat-out inaccurate trash advertising every single time to sway this completely negates any sort of moral or religious high ground these opponents could conceivably have otherwise had.