Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Tender Branson]

SSM leads by 56-36 in Rhode Island:

http://www.wpri.com/generic/elections/polls/campaign-2012-exclusive-poll-results-sept-2012?chartid=21

[Tender Branson]

Colorado (Univ. of Denver/Selzer):

8. Which best represents your view on same-sex relationships:

49% The law should allow same-sex couples to marry
24% The law should allow same-sex couples to form civil unions, but not marry
23% The law should not recognize same-sex relationships
  4% Not sure

http://debate2012.du.edu/media/documents/coloradovoterspoll.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Landslide victory ahead for the SSM referendum in WA:

55-40 support

http://www.krem.com/news/local/172959271.html

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota SSM amendment gets close:

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

47% Yes (-3)
46% No (+3)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c5df6fe-ac56-44ec-ba5b-73fdf4769eab

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota

St. Cloud State University poll shows the gay marriage ban failing:

Marriage amendment (likely voters)

44% vote for
51% vote against

http://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2012/10/st-cloud-state-poll-shows-slender-lead-opponents-marriage-amendment

Great news ...

[Tender Branson]

Gay Marriage now trails by 1 in MD:

47-46 illegal

Mostly because the Blacks switched over to the "illegal" side.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-ballot-poll-20121027,0,2752616,full.story

[Tender Branson]

In MN the hetero marriage amendment leads by 1 now:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/176007971.html

[Tender Branson]

In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

[Tender Branson]

Good news for the pro-gay-marriage side today:

WA - SurveyUSA

52% Support
43% Oppose

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/11/01/king-5-poll-governors-race-down-to-the-wire

MD - Goucher College Poll

55% Support
39% Oppose

http://de.scribd.com/doc/111599471/Goucher-Poll-Results-1

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, in MN (SUSA):
Yes 48%
No 47%

Not enough to pass under Minnesota law.

Well, you have to factor in about a 5-point Gaydley-Effect.

[Tender Branson]

NJ (PPP):

53-36 legal

IL (PPP):

47-42 legal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ILNJ_120512.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Oregon (PPP):

Q21 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Oregon, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 54%
Should not....................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

Georgia (PPP):

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Georgia, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 27%
Should not....................................................... 65%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_120512.pdf

[Tender Branson]

NJ (Quinnipiac):

Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

64-30 support

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1872

[Tender Branson]

Now even KANSAS with majority gay marriage support (even though the question wording is different):

Should same-sex couples be able to share in the legal benefits of marriage, such as the right to inherit property and the right to make medical decisions for one another? Or should the legal benefits of marriage be restricted only to couples consisting of a man and a woman?

60% Same-sex Couples
38% Man And a Woman

Proposition 8 was found unconsitutional by a federal district court in 2010. That ruling was upheld by a federal appeals court in 2012. Now the case has reached the Supreme Court of the United States. How should the Supreme Court rule? Should it uphold the appeals court ruling, which would end Proposition 8? Should it overturn the appeals court ruling, which would leave Proposition 8 in effect? Or do you not know enough to say?

42% Uphold The Appeals Court
40% Overturn The Appeals Court

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=323d68ba-283b-470a-8314-eb5a0c762127

And CALIFORNIA:

Should same-sex couples be able to share in the legal benefits of marriage, such as the right to inherit property and the right to make medical decisions for one another? Or should the legal benefits of marriage be restricted only to couples consisting of a man and a woman?

67% Same-sex Couples
30% Man And a Woman

Proposition 8 was found unconsitutional by a federal district court in 2010. That ruling was upheld by a federal appeals court in 2012. Now the case has reached the Supreme Court of the United States. How should the Supreme Court rule? Should it uphold the appeals court ruling, which would end Proposition 8? Should it overturn the appeals court ruling, which would leave Proposition 8 in effect? Or do you not know enough to say?

52% Uphold The Appeals Court
32% Overturn The Appeals Court

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=52e09f6d-6848-43ab-b86d-fc353833b3f9

[Tender Branson]

AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin:

By a ratio of 55 percent to 35 percent, Arizonans say they favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry. Majorities in the following groups appear to have locked arms in support of such unions: women (60%), Hispanics (75%), liberals (67%), moderates (64%), registered Independents (64%), Democrats (70%), and voters under 55 years of age (60%).

http://de.scribd.com/doc/141390200/Rocky-Mountain-Arizona-poll-May-2013

[Tender Branson]

What poll says Kansas has more gay marriage support than Colorado and Illinois?

The poll on the previous page.

[Tender Branson]

New TN poll:



The poll results suggest a marked shift in Tennesseans’ views since 2006, when 81 percent of voters approved an amendment to the state constitution defining marriage between one man and one woman as “the only legally recognized marital contract” in the state.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20130521/NEWS/305220071/Poll-finds-growing-support-for-same-sex-marriage

[Tender Branson]

Previous PPP polls in the states have shown though that only a small part of the "civil union" people also support SSM.

So, in this case it would be ca. 35-60 opposed, with 5% undecided.

[Tender Branson]

New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

[Tender Branson]

Support for homo-marriages reaches a new high in CA:



A majority of voters favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. This represents a recent shift in attitudes toward same-sex marriage. When the PPIC Statewide Survey first asked the question in 2000, 39% of voters were in favor and 55% were opposed. The margin narrowed over the next decade until 2010, when 51% favored legalizing same-sex marriage for the first time. Today, a record 58% of registered voters are in favor, while 36% are opposed.

For many years there was a strong partisan divide on same-sex marriage, with majorities of Democrats and independents in favor and Republicans opposed. But Republicans are now closely divided (46% in favor, 49% opposed). Remarkably, Republican support has doubled since October 2008—just before the passage of Proposition 8—and has jumped 16 points since January 2013.

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=1059

[Tender Branson]

Montana (PPP):

Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?

It should be allowed ........................................ 42%
It should not .................................................... 48%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .....................................................39%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ..........................32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship .......................27%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_628.pdf

...

As usual, only a small fraction of the "civil union people" would also support gay marriage ...

[Tender Branson]

Time to fill in the map:

Ohio (Quinnipiac)

48-44 support

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1884

[Tender Branson]

Updating the thread map for the new polls from Montana and Ohio and the decision in the Prop 8 case:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Ernest, which polls would you like to add on your map ?

Only polls done in 2013 ?

I have found some polls from other states as well that you can include.

[Tender Branson]

KY-PPP: 27-65 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/kentucky-miscellany.html

LA-PPP: 29-59 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/louisiana-miscellany.html

TX-PPP: 35-55 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas.html

WI-PPP: 44-46 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/wisconsin-miscellany.html

KS-PPP: 39-51 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/kansas-miscellany.html

PA-Quinnipiac: 47-43 legal

http://www.politicspa.com/quinnipiac-poll-pa-voters-support-same-sex-marriage-by-a-small-margin/45702

NV (POS): 54-43 legal

http://www.rannv.org/documents/23/Release%20February%2013%20Survey.pdf

...

The last FL poll I can find is from December 2012 from Quinnipiac: 43-45 illegal

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/gaysouthflorida/2012/12/poll-florida-voters-split-on-gay-marriage-oppose-legalizing-pot.html

[Tender Branson]

Updating Ernest's map with the above polls:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)