Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[greenforest32]

Late May/early June 2012 Minnesota poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 47%
Illegal .............................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?

Yes - 43%
No - 49%
Not sure - 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MiscellaneousMN_060512.pdf

MN PPP results from January 2012: 43% legal, 47% illegal, 10% not sure
MN PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 45% illegal, 9% not sure

[greenforest32]

Late May/early June 2012 Florida poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 42%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MiscellaneousFL_060812.pdf

FL PPP results from June 2011: 37% legal, 53% illegal, 10% not sure

[greenforest32]

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/214734857002164225

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, 2012 looks pretty good. The Maine/Maryland/Washington initiatives are favored to win and it's very possible Minnesota will reject the constitutional ban.

As far as new states passing constitutional bans, there's really only four possibilities left: Indiana, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wyoming.



None of these four states allow for citizen initiatives that amend the state constitution so it's been up to the state legislatures to refer a ban.

Indiana/Pennsylvania - I think split control in the state legislature has prevented referring a constitutional ban in these two previously, but Republicans won both these state legislatures in 2010. I was expecting them to pass bans in 2011 that were referred to the 2012 ballot like NC/MN Republicans did but it turns out these two states require a constitutional amendment to pass in two consecutive legislative sessions before it is referred to the ballot. It might fail if Democrats win control of one of the chambers of the state legislatures in the Nov. 2012 elections or if Republicans opt for amendments that ban both gay marriage and civil unions. I could see the bans failing in 2016 but sadly I think they'd have a high chance of passing in 2013/2014.

West Virginia - WV Democrats haven't passed a state constitutional ban and I think they only would in response to the state supreme court overturning the statutory ban. Of course there's also the possibility Republicans will win the state legislature sometime this decade.

Wyoming - No idea why Republicans haven't referred a ban here. They've controlled the state legislature for 30+ years and it would probably pass with 60%+ of the vote.

It's going to look pretty weird to look back and see 30+ state constitutional amendments banning gay marriage/civil unions pass from 1998 to 2014/16

[greenforest32]

Constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage have continuously failed in the Wyoming Republican legislature. They're an interesting bunch. I don't think one would ever pass the legislature there.

I think Wyoming is one of those states where odd, libertarianish Republicans dominate the party base.

This could be part of it now that I think about it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Shepard

[greenforest32]

June 2012 Washington poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 51%
Illegal .............................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_WA_619.pdf

WA PPP results from February 2012: 49% legal, 44% illegal, 7% not sure
WA PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 44% illegal, 10% not sure

[greenforest32]

June 2012 Massachusetts poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 62%
Illegal .............................................................. 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_062812.pdf

MA PPP results from March 2012: 58% legal, 31% illegal, 11% not sure
MA PPP results from September 2011: 60% legal, 30% illegal, 10% not sure
MA PPP results from June 2011: 59% legal, 33% illegal, 8% not sure

June 2012 Ohio poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 37%
Illegal .............................................................. 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Miscellaneous_OH_062812.pdf

OH PPP results from May 2012: 35% legal, 52% illegal, 13% not sure
OH PPP results from October 2011: 32% legal, 55% illegal, 13% not sure
OH PPP results from August 2011: 33% legal, 53% illegal, 14% not sure

June 2012 Oregon poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 46%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_070512.pdf

OR PPP results from June 2011: 48% legal, 42% illegal, 11% not sure

[greenforest32]

We've seen a few polls (Iowa and Minnesota I think?) slip back a few points within the margin of error, but I agree. Though this is the poll that has Obama down by 22 points against Romney with OR independents.

It looks like holding off at the 2012 measure was a good idea. There will probably be some peer pressure encouraging a 2014 push provided Washington upholds it this year and California's lawsuit ends with the Supreme Court refusing to hear the appeal and thus legalization in 2013.

Worst case scenario, it will be held off until 2016.

[greenforest32]

July 2012 Wisconsin poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_072012.pdf

WI PPP results from August 2011: 39% legal, 50% illegal, 11% not sure
WI PPP results from May 2011: 42% legal, 46% illegal, 12% not sure

[greenforest32]

July 2012 Connecticut poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 55%
Illegal .............................................................. 33%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CT_080212.pdf

CT PPP results from September 2011: 55% legal, 32% illegal, 13% not sure

July 2012 poll on the Maryland referendum:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/02/maryland-marriage-equality_n_1732555.html

[greenforest32]

August 2012 Nevada poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 47%
Illegal .............................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_082812.pdf

NV PPP results from July 2011: 45% legal, 44% illegal, 11% not sure

------

Meanwhile the Rhode Island Senate President continues to be a moderate hero: http://www.boston.com/news/local/rhode-island/2012/08/29/senate-president-mum-gay-marriage/dyZ2ozauXRqSAMInd5M6aJ/story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[greenforest32]

September 2012 Minnesota poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?

Yes - 48%
No - 47%
Not sure - 5%
Won't vote on the amendment - 0%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_912121.pdf

MN PPP results from late May/early June 2012: 47% legal, 42% illegal, 11% not sure
MN PPP results from January 2012: 43% legal, 47% illegal, 10% not sure
MN PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 45% illegal, 9% not sure

September 2012 poll on the Washington referendum:

A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?

Approved - 56%
Rejected - 38%
Not sure - 6%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=331e05a7-633b-4775-b354-821f378f63f7

Up from 50%/43%/7% in June: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

------

Rhode Island had its primaries on Tuesday and things didn't change much. Delaware will probably beat them to it at this rate.

http://blog.thephoenix.com/BLOGS/notfornothing/archive/2012/09/11/tough-night-for-gay-marriage-supporters.aspx

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[greenforest32]

September 2012 Maine poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 52%
Illegal .............................................................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Question 1 would allow the State of Maine to
issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples.
If the election was today, would you vote yes or
no on question 1?

Yes - 52%
No - 44%
Not sure - 4%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_92012.pdf

ME PPP results from March 2012: 54% legal, 41% illegal, 5% not sure
ME PPP results from October 2011: 51% legal, 42% illegal, 8% not sure
ME PPP results from March 2011: 47% legal, 45% illegal, 8% not sure

September 2012 poll on the Washington referendum #2:

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/09/17/gay-marriage-pot-legalization-gain-elway-poll/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

----------------------

September 2012 Marquette Law School Wisconsin Poll

"Q31: Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship."

Allowed to legally marry - 48%
Civil unions - 25%
No legal recognition - 21%
Don't know - 4%
Refused - 2%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MLSP11_Toplines.pdf

Wow, those numbers look a little too good.

[greenforest32]

Neat, a recent (September 2012) Illinois poll: http://capitolfax.com/2012/09/26/more-illinoisans-favor-gay-marriage-now-than-two-years-ago/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[greenforest32]

Another Minnesota poll from October: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/minnesota-marriage-amendment-narrowly-trails.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

--------

These seem too good: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/poll-support-grows-for-same-sex-marriage-in-florida-ohio-and-virginia/2012/10/09/969bea0e-1220-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[greenforest32]

Good results.

Where does marriage equality go next?

Logical next states:

- California (Will probably wait until after the Supreme Court rules on Prop
- Colorado
- Delaware
- Illinois (Redistricting greatly helped the Democrats here)  
- New Mexico
- Oregon
- Rhode Island  

Longshot tries:

- Florida
- Minnesota
- Nevada

I think the Supreme Court will narrowly overturn DOMA (allow federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where it's legal but not force recognition between states).

For the future, I think California and Illinois will legalize it in 2013 via court rulings (SCOTUS declines Prop 8 appeal and the IL Supreme Court overturns the state's statutory ban) plus Delaware through the state legislature.

Rhode Island and Hawaii really need to get it together and Minnesota/Colorado should avoid the civil union route IMO now that Democrats control these state legislatures again though Colorado does have a constitutional amendment to deal with (would be nice to have a Western sweep with CO/OR/NV in 2014/2016). Lawsuits in Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and New Jersey are probably the quickest for those states considering the Republican governors.

I doubt Florida will be soon as mentioned previously that state constitutional amendments there now need 60% to pass. I can't really think of any near-term ones beyond the ones you mentioned considering the levels of support. Maybe Wisconsin (forgot there's no initiatives in WI) and Arizona...

[greenforest32]

I was considering federal recognition as having more soft opposition compared to forcing recognition between states so I figured maybe they'd take a moderate hero route that offends the least people and do it in a way that doesn't make it a permanent decision (something like making the Medicaid expansion optional).

I don't really see the problem with court rulings overturning the legislature on civil rights/liberties issues. They could use a slap on quite a few things.

[greenforest32]

I was considering federal recognition as having more soft opposition compared to forcing recognition between states so I figured maybe they'd take a moderate hero route that offends the least people and do it in a way that doesn't make it a permanent decision (something like making the Medicaid expansion optional).

Except your moderate hero route ain't so moderate. You like it because a few states happen to have adopted laws on the subject that you like and you want them to be able to force the Federal government to go along with them.  But what if the situation were reversed and a few states had adopted a law you didn't like and the courts were to force the Federal government to follow that law because the States had adopted it?  Indeed, by your own moderate hero position, if the Federal government repealed DOMA on its own and wanted to extend Federal benefits to same-sex couples in a state that prohibited construing a same-sex relationship as being equivalent to marriage, it couldn't, since it would be using a different definition that the State government in question had decided.

It is because I am a true federalist that I do not want the States to be able to force the Federal government to decide what to do on this issue or any other issue, save in the case of some constitutional provision that would bind both the State and Federal governments.

Slipping through the states is not my preferred option (I would prefer a full 50 state federal mandate but it's probably too soon for that), I was talking about what I thought was most likely.

What I would really like is to abolish the states. I don't see them as some type of 'free enablers' but as a great way to divert attention and focus for divide and conquer techniques and as loopholes for national standards. I think we would have dealt more effectively with things like healthcare years ago if we had a unicameral national legislature.

[greenforest32]

What I would really like is to abolish the states. I don't see them as some type of 'free enablers' but as a great way to divert attention and focus for divide and conquer techniques and as loopholes for national standards. I think we would have dealt more effectively with things like healthcare years ago if we had a unicameral national legislature.

A man after my own heart.

[greenforest32]

AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot.  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?

[greenforest32]

It's really just a question of method now in Oregon. The group working to put a measure on the 2014 ballot has gathered 160k signatures for the initiative as of this month (probably already enough to qualify for the ballot) and the signature deadline isn't until July but it's possible that the state's ban on same-sex marriage will be struck down by a federal judge before then like what happened in UT/OK/VA so they said they might not even want to put a legalization measure on the ballot at that point.

Of course the federal decision could be stayed and the language of the previous ban would still be in the state constitution so who knows? I doubt the initiative would fail at the ballot but I also kind of doubt it would get 55% or more. It is a mid-term electorate after all.