Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Tender Branson]

NC (Elon):

Would you [support or oppose] an amendment to the North Carolina constitution that would prevent any same sex marriages?

38% Support
54% Oppose

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/030912_Methodology.pdf

[Tender Branson]

NC (Elon):

Would you [support or oppose] an amendment to the North Carolina constitution that would prevent any same sex marriages?

38% Support
54% Oppose

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/030912_Methodology.pdf

PPP notes that this poll is useless, because it doesn't use the correct ballot language.

The PPP poll for NC that's currently in the field shows a result that is different by 50 points !

[greenforest32]

March 2012 Massachusetts numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 58%
Illegal .............................................................. 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_322121.pdf

MA PPP results from September 2011: 60% legal, 30% illegal, 10% not sure
MA PPP results from June 2011: 59% legal, 33% illegal, 8% not sure

Come on, somebody get to those 15 unpolled states

[Nhoj]

March 2012 Massachusetts numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 58%
Illegal .............................................................. 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_322121.pdf

MA PPP results from September 2011: 60% legal, 30% illegal, 10% not sure
MA PPP results from June 2011: 59% legal, 33% illegal, 8% not sure

Come on, somebody get to those 15 unpolled states

Im sure PPP is on it [in fact since they just polled LA, I bet its likely we get one there.]

I do wonder why no one has polled Illinois on this one, considering there is legislative movement towards legalizing it in the state and I would think its electorate would be one of the most supportive in the midwest.

[greenforest32]

April 2012 Colorado numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 53%
Illegal .............................................................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_041312.pdf

CO PPP results from December 2011: 47% legal, 43% illegal, 10% not sure
CO PPP results from August 2011: 45% legal, 45% illegal, 10% not sure

Damn look at that age gap:

18-29 y/o - 77% legal, 23% illegal, 0% not sure
30-45 y/o - 52% legal, 40% illegal, 7% not sure
46-65 y/o - 58% legal, 35% illegal, 7% not sure
65+ y/o - 28% legal, 59% illegal, 13% not sure

[Tender Branson]

New NC referendum numbers show a narrower margin, actually the narrowest ever:

Would you vote for or against a constitutional amendment to provide that marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State?

Would vote for it.............................................. 54%
Would vote against it ...................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Do you think that a 'yes' vote on Amendment One bans just gay marriage, bans both gay
marriage and civil unions, legalizes gay marriage, or are you not sure?

Bans just gay marriage ................................... 26%
Bans both gay marriage and civil unions ........ 36%
Legalizes gay marriage................................... 10%
Not sure .......................................................... 27%

If you knew that Amendment One banned both gay marriage and civil unions, would you vote
'yes' or 'no'?

Would vote 'yes'.............................................. 38%
Would vote 'no' ............................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry ..................................................28%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................25%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................44%
Not sure ... 3%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_424.pdf

[greenforest32]

April 2012 Virginia numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_VA_050412.pdf

VA PPP results from December 2011: 34% legal, 53% illegal, 13% not sure
VA PPP results from July 2011: 35% legal, 52% illegal, 14% not sure

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?

[morgieb]

So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?

I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.

[BaldEagle1991]

Damn look at that age gap:

18-29 y/o - 77% legal, 23% illegal, 0% not sure
30-45 y/o - 52% legal, 40% illegal, 7% not sure
46-65 y/o - 58% legal, 35% illegal, 7% not sure
65+ y/o - 28% legal, 59% illegal, 13% not sure

Well you have one age group that grew up during a time when gays were persecuted and torched, and you have one that grew up thinking homosexuality is normal, innate, and saw/heard homosexuals on TV and radio all the time.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

New NC referendum numbers show a narrower margin, actually the narrowest ever:

Would you vote for or against a constitutional amendment to provide that marriage between one man and one woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this State?

Would vote for it.............................................. 54%
Would vote against it ...................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Do you think that a 'yes' vote on Amendment One bans just gay marriage, bans both gay
marriage and civil unions, legalizes gay marriage, or are you not sure?

Bans just gay marriage ................................... 26%
Bans both gay marriage and civil unions ........ 36%
Legalizes gay marriage................................... 10%
Not sure .......................................................... 27%

If you knew that Amendment One banned both gay marriage and civil unions, would you vote
'yes' or 'no'?

Would vote 'yes'.............................................. 38%
Would vote 'no' ............................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry ..................................................28%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................25%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................44%
Not sure ... 3%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_424.pdf

Damn.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Who said that the it would legalize gay marriage? I think they shouldn't be allowed to vote.

[courts]

Who said that the it would legalize gay marriage? I think they shouldn't be allowed to vote.

Agreed. No seriously, I'm tired of the obviously ignorant being allowed any say in things.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Who said that the it would legalize gay marriage? I think they shouldn't be allowed to vote.

Agreed. No seriously, I'm tired of the obviously ignorant being allowed any say in things.

Agreed in sentiment, not in actuality.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?

I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.

I meant Washington and not Massachusetts. Maine will have a proposition to legalize gay marriage on the ballot. There's still a chance that California will too. Maryland and Washington will  likely have challenges to gay marriage on the ballot.

[morgieb]

So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?

I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.

I meant Washington and not Massachusetts. Maine will have a proposition to legalize gay marriage on the ballot. There's still a chance that California will too. Maryland and Washington will  likely have challenges to gay marriage on the ballot.

Well Washington replaces Massachusetts as the most likely then.

California a little way behind due to the high minority population.

[Sbane]

So what are the odds that all of MA, MD, ME, and CA (if it's on the ballot in CA) vote for gay marriage this year?

I'd say they all end up in favour of it.

In order of likelihood for least likely to most likely - Maryland, Maine, California and Massachusetts.

I meant Washington and not Massachusetts. Maine will have a proposition to legalize gay marriage on the ballot. There's still a chance that California will too. Maryland and Washington will  likely have challenges to gay marriage on the ballot.

Well Washington replaces Massachusetts as the most likely then.

California a little way behind due to the high minority population.

So let's see here. You don't see a problem with Maine voting even more strongly against gay marriage because most of the voters there were white? Only if minorities cause something you favor to fail you see a problem with it? It always seems like the California results seem to piss off people more than all the other states where whites voted against gay marriage (btw whites voted 49-51 for prop 8, only 7 points away from the result). Minorities shouldn't have a say, right? Maybe the no on 8 campaign could have done a better job communicating with minorities, but no, they should just fall in line on their own. And if they don't, ridicule them. And if lobster fisherman in Maine don't vote for gay marriage, well at least they were white and have a right to be heard, yeah?

I mean let's ignore other variables such as say religiousness, class backgrounds and professions of the voters and let's focus on the melanin content!

[greenforest32]

More May 2012 North Carolina numbers

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 34%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?

Would vote for it - 55%
Would vote against it - 39%
Not sure - 6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_506.pdf

NC PPP results from January 2012: 32% legal, 57% illegal, 12% not sure
NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure

[Marokai Backbeat]

I still don't understand how anyone ever had any hope of that amendment failing. It's North Carolina.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I still don't understand how anyone ever had any hope of that amendment failing. It's North Carolina.

This.

[CARLHAYDEN]

More May 2012 North Carolina numbers

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 34%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?

Would vote for it - 55%
Would vote against it - 39%
Not sure - 6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_506.pdf

NC PPP results from January 2012: 32% legal, 57% illegal, 12% not sure
NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure

Here's the actual results

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

100 of 100 Counties Reporting

        Percent                  Votes

For           61.04%              1,303,876
Against    38.96%                 832,219
            

[greenforest32]

May 2012 Ohio numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 35%
Illegal .............................................................. 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_050912.pdf

OH PPP results from October 2011: 32% legal, 55% illegal, 13% not sure
OH PPP results from August 2011: 33% legal, 53% illegal, 14% not sure

[greenforest32]

April 2012 Montana numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050412.pdf

MT PPP results from November 2011: 37% legal, 51% illegal, 12% not sure

May 2012 New Hampshire numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 57%
Illegal .............................................................. 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NH_051612.pdf

NH PPP results from July 2011: 51% legal, 38% illegal, 11% not sure

[Marokai Backbeat]

Surprisingly not-completely-awful Montana numbers.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

It doesn't actually surprise me much that most of the mountain West should be better than most of the Rust Belt.