Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[greenforest32]

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/214734857002164225

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Yeah, 2012 looks pretty good. The Maine/Maryland/Washington initiatives are favored to win and it's very possible Minnesota will reject the constitutional ban.

As far as new states passing constitutional bans, there's really only four possibilities left: Indiana, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wyoming.



None of these four states allow for citizen initiatives that amend the state constitution so it's been up to the state legislatures to refer a ban.

Indiana/Pennsylvania - I think split control in the state legislature has prevented referring a constitutional ban in these two previously, but Republicans won both these state legislatures in 2010. I was expecting them to pass bans in 2011 that were referred to the 2012 ballot like NC/MN Republicans did but it turns out these two states require a constitutional amendment to pass in two consecutive legislative sessions before it is referred to the ballot. It might fail if Democrats win control of one of the chambers of the state legislatures in the Nov. 2012 elections or if Republicans opt for amendments that ban both gay marriage and civil unions. I could see the bans failing in 2016 but sadly I think they'd have a high chance of passing in 2013/2014.

West Virginia - WV Democrats haven't passed a state constitutional ban and I think they only would in response to the state supreme court overturning the statutory ban. Of course there's also the possibility Republicans will win the state legislature sometime this decade.

Wyoming - No idea why Republicans haven't referred a ban here. They've controlled the state legislature for 30+ years and it would probably pass with 60%+ of the vote.

It's going to look pretty weird to look back and see 30+ state constitutional amendments banning gay marriage/civil unions pass from 1998 to 2014/16

[Holmes]

Constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage have continuously failed in the Wyoming Republican legislature. They're an interesting bunch. I don't think one would ever pass the legislature there.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I think Wyoming is one of those states where odd, libertarianish Republicans dominate the party base.

[greenforest32]

Constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage have continuously failed in the Wyoming Republican legislature. They're an interesting bunch. I don't think one would ever pass the legislature there.

I think Wyoming is one of those states where odd, libertarianish Republicans dominate the party base.

This could be part of it now that I think about it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Shepard

[Holmes]

Maybe, but I don't think it plays that big a part.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wyoming - No idea why Republicans haven't referred a ban here. They've controlled the state legislature for 30+ years and it would probably pass with 60%+ of the vote.

They don't need it as a wedge issue and they likely have no fear that the Wyoming Supreme Court will overturn the legislative ban.

[greenforest32]

June 2012 Washington poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 51%
Illegal .............................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_WA_619.pdf

WA PPP results from February 2012: 49% legal, 44% illegal, 7% not sure
WA PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 44% illegal, 10% not sure

[morgieb]

Will constitutional amendments be overturned if a Roe v Wade-esque decision is passed?

[Ebowed]

Will constitutional amendments be overturned if a Roe v Wade-esque decision is passed?

Yes, the federal constitution overrides any state constitutions

[greenforest32]

June 2012 Massachusetts poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 62%
Illegal .............................................................. 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_062812.pdf

MA PPP results from March 2012: 58% legal, 31% illegal, 11% not sure
MA PPP results from September 2011: 60% legal, 30% illegal, 10% not sure
MA PPP results from June 2011: 59% legal, 33% illegal, 8% not sure

June 2012 Ohio poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 37%
Illegal .............................................................. 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Miscellaneous_OH_062812.pdf

OH PPP results from May 2012: 35% legal, 52% illegal, 13% not sure
OH PPP results from October 2011: 32% legal, 55% illegal, 13% not sure
OH PPP results from August 2011: 33% legal, 53% illegal, 14% not sure

June 2012 Oregon poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal ............................................................... 46%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_070512.pdf

OR PPP results from June 2011: 48% legal, 42% illegal, 11% not sure

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Still much work to be done.

[morgieb]

Poor numbers from Oregon.

[greenforest32]

We've seen a few polls (Iowa and Minnesota I think?) slip back a few points within the margin of error, but I agree. Though this is the poll that has Obama down by 22 points against Romney with OR independents.

It looks like holding off at the 2012 measure was a good idea. There will probably be some peer pressure encouraging a 2014 push provided Washington upholds it this year and California's lawsuit ends with the Supreme Court refusing to hear the appeal and thus legalization in 2013.

Worst case scenario, it will be held off until 2016.

[BaldEagle1991]

Where are the polls out of Georgia?

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

[Holmes]

Pretty close in Washington, but then again, seems like it'll be close either way, huh? SUSA was good in Washington for R-74 two years ago, though. I feel like R-74 will need about a 10 point lead in the polls to win "comfortably".

[krazen1211]

Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

Ha. That debunks PPP's gutter trash poll from about a month ago.

[Holmes]

One poll debunking another poll from over a month ago. Thanks for you valuable contribution to this thread.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Wyoming - No idea why Republicans haven't referred a ban here. They've controlled the state legislature for 30+ years and it would probably pass with 60%+ of the vote.

They don't need it as a wedge issue and they likely have no fear that the Wyoming Supreme Court will overturn the legislative ban.

Trying to ban gay marriage would cost the GOP support in Wyoming, as it did in Idaho six years ago (if you don't believe me, look at how badly it fared in Boise's recently developed neighborhoods and suburbs). The amount of ire the all-important libertarian-esque independents have towards the fundamentalist brand of social conservative is surprising.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Who knew there were so many DINOs in MN?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Who knew there were so many DINOs in MN?

SUSA is notoriously bad at polling MN but the lack of support among Democrats for gay marriage has been a recurring theme of this debate. It's why Aroostook County was the bastion against it in Maine.

[Holmes]

Aroostook county is "Democratic" (rather, it seems more Republican than the state average more often than not) for different reasons than areas in Minnesota, though. Comparing them is silly.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Aroostook county is "Democratic" (rather, it seems more Republican than the state average more often than not) for different reasons than areas in Minnesota, though. Comparing them is silly.

Sure but it shares more than a few similarities with the Iron Range and the fact that a swing county would vote so strongly against the state average illustrates my point. I should have just noted how poorly the "No" side fared in the strip of the Iron Range that extends into Wisconsin. It performed on par with the state average there.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

Ha. That debunks PPP's gutter trash poll from about a month ago.

Why do you care?

[krazen1211]

Minnesota is now very, very unlikely to approve SSM in November, says a new SurveyUSA poll:

52% for the man/woman marriage amendment
37% against
  5% won't vote
  6% not sure

GOP: 75-12 support
DEM: 54-38 oppose
IND: 48-42 support

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2698095.shtml?cat=1

Washington is a different story though, also by SurveyUSA:

"A new law passed by the legislature would allow same-sex couples to marry in Washington state. Should this law be approved? Or rejected?"

50% Approve
43% Rejected

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

Ha. That debunks PPP's gutter trash poll from about a month ago.

Why do you care?

Mr. Nathan, sir, there is something to be said about the merit of discrediting pollsters that have an obvious dubious agenda and that do not seek to represent the people.