Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Penelope]

Here we go again.. =(

[Oakvale]

I heard recently that undecided voters on gay marriage referenda tend to break very heavily against same-sex marriage, for whatever reason. I expect the Minneosta amendment will pass, unfortunately. Washington will be close. Ugh.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The DNC should really start pouring some funds into this.  But with one week left to go, how much can you do?

[Oakvale]

Come to think of it, has gay marriage ever survived a popular vote in the US? I can't think of one offhand, which is kind of disheartening.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Come to think of it, has gay marriage ever survived a popular vote in the US? I can't think of one offhand, which is kind of disheartening.

No. Only one anti-gay ballot measure of any kind, a particularly draconian one in Arizona before that state slammed the dial as far right as it could go without breaking, has ever even failed.

Again, it will still probably get carried in Maine and Washington is more likely than not to be a squeaker, in which I think we still have a slight but diminished edge. Either or both of those would be hugely important symbolic as well as practical victories considering the total lack of any previous victories of this kind. Minnesota might be saved by the fact that abstentions count as No votes on ballot questions there. I'm very depressed about Maryland, though.

[ilikeverin]

In MN the hetero marriage amendment leads by 1 now:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/176007971.html

18-34-year-olds only oppose it 54-44?  Um, okay.

Um, more confusing still: 65+ oppose it 51-43?  What?

[Lief 🗽]

The MN poll is very R-leaning (Obama is only up 3), so maybe we'll pull that one off after all.

[Seattle]

In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

I wouldn't be too worried, it's Elway and they aren't a great polster.

[Frodo]

In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

I wouldn't be too worried, it's Elway and they aren't a great polster.

So what do you think the actual numbers are? 

[Seattle]

In WA, the gay-marriage amendment is only ahead by 4 anymore according to a new poll:

49-45 in favor of gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/24/new-poll-points-to-tightening-race-on-gay-marriage

I wouldn't be too worried, it's Elway and they aren't a great polster.

So what do you think the actual numbers are? 

I don't think R-74's support is quite as high as what PPP, SUSA, and the others have showed, but I believe 51-53% will be the likely range for it. I like that the Washington Poll came out with those "adjusted" numbers to try and account for a presumed Bradley Effect. Even then, R-74 was leading 53-46, or something like that. I've always thought this was going to be tight, but in the end, Seattle and Eastside voting should be able to carry it through.

[Holmes]

Yeah, guys. Calm down. Bad polls happen, although I'm inclined to believe the actual numbers are probably in the single digits everywhere rather than double digits that other polls show. Remember, SUSA is great in Washington and pretty much nailed R-71's numbers. They were even the only poll that initially had it much closer than the other polls. The only one I'm unhappy about is Maryland.

[krazen1211]

These fresh polls quite clearly show that Barack Obama has attacked his own religion as well as the people's values.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

These fresh polls quite clearly show that Barack Obama has attacked his own religion as well as the people's values.

They actually show that he's 'attacked' about 45-50% of the people's values, but if you say so. Also, Obama's a nondenominational Christian who used to be Congregationalist. I'm not sure how familiar you are with the UCC, but...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In 2008 there were 2,920,214 votes cast in Minnesota. There were 2,776,561 votes cast "Yes" or "No" for the Constitutional amendment, so almost 5% of voters left it blank. Based on those numbers the "Yes" side would need around 52.6% of the votes of those cast for it to pass it so 47-48 "No" might be enough to kill it. Admittedly the 2008 vote was on a far less hot button issue, but even with half the blanks it still needs over 51%.

[Tender Branson]

Good news for the pro-gay-marriage side today:

WA - SurveyUSA

52% Support
43% Oppose

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/11/01/king-5-poll-governors-race-down-to-the-wire

MD - Goucher College Poll

55% Support
39% Oppose

http://de.scribd.com/doc/111599471/Goucher-Poll-Results-1

[Lief 🗽]

I think it'll pass in Washington. We've seen conflicting numbers in Maryland, but I'm not optimistic.

Meanwhile, in MN (SUSA):
Yes 48%
No 47%

[Speed of Sound]

We just have to win one of these to get the ball rolling...please Washington save the skin of decency, man.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Meanwhile, in MN (SUSA):
Yes 48%
No 47%

Not enough to pass under Minnesota law.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, in MN (SUSA):
Yes 48%
No 47%

Not enough to pass under Minnesota law.

Well, you have to factor in about a 5-point Gaydley-Effect.

[Gass3268]

Marquette University Poll:

Q27
Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay
couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no
legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship.
N %
Allowed to legally marry 547 44%
Civil unions 360 29%
No legal recognition 278 22%
Don't know (v) 44 4%
Refused (v) 14 1%

This has been consistant throughout all of Marquette's polling

[Lief 🗽]

The Maine ballot measure leads 52-45, says PPP. Cautiously optimistic here. Anyone remember what the polls were saying here before the last vote?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-king-marriage-lead-in-maine.html

[Marokai Backbeat]

The Maine ballot measure leads 52-45, says PPP. Cautiously optimistic here. Anyone remember what the polls were saying here before the last vote?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-king-marriage-lead-in-maine.html

PPP did two polls in the last couple weeks before the initiative in 2009, the first was a 48-48 tie, the last was 51-47 in favor of passing the repeal, which was pretty much exactly the final result. The language on this initiative is pretty simple, yes for gay marriage, no for keeping the ban, and polling has been much more favorable this time around, though for obvious reasons we should remain cautious. But gay marriage is in much better shape in the polls of Maine this time around.

[Gass3268]

Minnesota (PPP)

Q2   Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
Yes.................................................................. 45%
No ................................................................... 52%
Notsure.......................................................... 3%
Won't vote on the amendment........................ 0%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_1103.pdf

[politicallefty]

That's very good news if true. Hopefully, that'll be enough of a lead for the No side to defeat the hate amendment.

Unrelated, but the voter ID amendment is also trailing 46-51.

[morgieb]

Great stuff!