Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[morgieb]

Wow @ the New Jersey poll.

Any chance of getting a veto-proof majority on SSM in New Jersey.

[MaxQue]

I think than the plan at a moment was to pass a referendum on gay marriage, as Christie would have difficuties to veto it and be able to justify it.

But, perhaps they changed their mind.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Christie is the person who suggested that referendum.

[MaxQue]

Christie is the person who suggested that referendum.

I suppose it's proof than he wants to run for Presidency. Nobody can attack him on letting people voting.

[politicallefty]

Unfortunately, the Democrats in the NJ Legislature took the "principled stance" and didn't take up Christie's offer for a referendum. There may be times when it's okay to take a stance like that, but not when you can actually win. Marriage equality almost certainly would have won at the ballot box in 2012 (and quite possibly in prior years as well). If the Supreme Court does not make a 50-state ruling this year, NJ Democrats had better take up Christie's offer ASAP.

[Sbane]

Unfortunately, the Democrats in the NJ Legislature took the "principled stance" and didn't take up Christie's offer for a referendum. There may be times when it's okay to take a stance like that, but not when you can actually win. Marriage equality almost certainly would have won at the ballot box in 2012 (and quite possibly in prior years as well). If the Supreme Court does not make a 50-state ruling this year, NJ Democrats had better take up Christie's offer ASAP.

What incentive to they have to get same sex marriage passed now? They can just use this as another issue to campaign against the republicans.

[Mr. Illini]

Illinois Same-Sex Marriage Legalization:

50% Support
29% Oppose
20% Unsure/Mixed Feelings

Breakdown:

Chicago - 56% Support
Suburbs - 52% Support
Downstate - 48% Support

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20130219/BLOGS02/130219779/illinoisans-back-gay-marriage-50-29-crains-ipsos-poll

Two things stand out to me here: 1) a lot of people are on the fence 2) downstate shows more support than I would have guessed.

[Tender Branson]

Now even KANSAS with majority gay marriage support (even though the question wording is different):

Should same-sex couples be able to share in the legal benefits of marriage, such as the right to inherit property and the right to make medical decisions for one another? Or should the legal benefits of marriage be restricted only to couples consisting of a man and a woman?

60% Same-sex Couples
38% Man And a Woman

Proposition 8 was found unconsitutional by a federal district court in 2010. That ruling was upheld by a federal appeals court in 2012. Now the case has reached the Supreme Court of the United States. How should the Supreme Court rule? Should it uphold the appeals court ruling, which would end Proposition 8? Should it overturn the appeals court ruling, which would leave Proposition 8 in effect? Or do you not know enough to say?

42% Uphold The Appeals Court
40% Overturn The Appeals Court

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=323d68ba-283b-470a-8314-eb5a0c762127

And CALIFORNIA:

Should same-sex couples be able to share in the legal benefits of marriage, such as the right to inherit property and the right to make medical decisions for one another? Or should the legal benefits of marriage be restricted only to couples consisting of a man and a woman?

67% Same-sex Couples
30% Man And a Woman

Proposition 8 was found unconsitutional by a federal district court in 2010. That ruling was upheld by a federal appeals court in 2012. Now the case has reached the Supreme Court of the United States. How should the Supreme Court rule? Should it uphold the appeals court ruling, which would end Proposition 8? Should it overturn the appeals court ruling, which would leave Proposition 8 in effect? Or do you not know enough to say?

52% Uphold The Appeals Court
32% Overturn The Appeals Court

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=52e09f6d-6848-43ab-b86d-fc353833b3f9

[danny]

You can't call that support for gay marriage, since the poll didn't ask that.

[Benj]

Yeah. It vaguely looks like a two-option civil-unions-or-nothing poll, which is interesting as such polls are rare except that we know a lot of people lie and say they support civil unions while voting against them. The second poll is probably close to an actual gay marriage support poll, although of course almost all of the undecideds would vote against gay marriage, as they always do (so 42-40 means an actual result of about 44-56, and 52-32 means an actual result of about 54-46). Still, progress.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I have a feeling a Prop 8 poll with that wording would confuse a large number of people anywhere outside CA.

[pbrower2a]

Colorado favors gay marriage

-Colorado voters like the civil unions bill the legislature passed earlier this year, supporting it by a 50/38 margin. But they'd also like to take it a step further, supporting full marriage rights for same sex couples by a 51/43 spread. Voters under 30 favor it by a 74/17 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/colorado-favors-gay-marriage.html#more

[Tender Branson]

AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin:

By a ratio of 55 percent to 35 percent, Arizonans say they favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry. Majorities in the following groups appear to have locked arms in support of such unions: women (60%), Hispanics (75%), liberals (67%), moderates (64%), registered Independents (64%), Democrats (70%), and voters under 55 years of age (60%).

http://de.scribd.com/doc/141390200/Rocky-Mountain-Arizona-poll-May-2013

[pbrower2a]

AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin:

By a ratio of 55 percent to 35 percent, Arizonans say they favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry. Majorities in the following groups appear to have locked arms in support of such unions: women (60%), Hispanics (75%), liberals (67%), moderates (64%), registered Independents (64%), Democrats (70%), and voters under 55 years of age (60%).

http://de.scribd.com/doc/141390200/Rocky-Mountain-Arizona-poll-May-2013

This pollster said that Arizona was in play late in the 2012 campaign. Beware!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin

As long as Republicans are in control of the Arizona legislature, what matters is not overall support, but support among Republican primary voters.

[publicunofficial]

AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin

As long as Republicans are in control of the Arizona legislature, what matters is not overall support, but support among Republican primary voters.

Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

Yes, but a constitutional amendment requires a ton of voters to sign the petition, 15% of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election, or a bit over 250K.  I don't see that happening anytime soon.

[Sbane]

Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

Yes, but a constitutional amendment requires a ton of voters to sign the petition, 15% of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election, or a bit over 250K.  I don't see that happening anytime soon.

For an issue like Gay Marriage, I think it could happen.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

Yes, but a constitutional amendment requires a ton of voters to sign the petition, 15% of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election, or a bit over 250K.  I don't see that happening anytime soon.

For an issue like Gay Marriage, I think it could happen.

It's certainly more likely than the legislative method.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, Glengariff/Detroit News

You must be logged in to read this quote.

From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130514/POLITICS02/305140459#ixzz2TNiEf7i4

[pbrower2a]

Blank map.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Two states shown (MI, MN).

 

 

[pbrower2a]

Back to AZ and CO --

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Two states shown (MI, MN).

 

 
[/quote]

[Gass3268]

Arizona, Colorado and Michigan should put forward an initiative for 2016.

[pbrower2a]

Recognizing states in which same-sex marriage is legal--

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


 

[pbrower2a]

NJ, CA, KS, IL

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)