Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
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  Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
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Author Topic: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws  (Read 188891 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #525 on: May 15, 2013, 01:29:19 PM »

from February:

North Carolina (PPP)

Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in North Carolina, or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 38%
It should not .................................................... 54%
Not sure  9%

Alaska (PPP)

Q5 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Alaska, or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 43%
It should not .................................................... 51%
Not sure  6%

and an obscure university poll from Virginia late in March (46-47 split)

I am not going back to January or earlier.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- medium red (50% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 40% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #526 on: May 15, 2013, 03:08:19 PM »

Most recent South Carolina poll I could find:

December 2012 (PPP)

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 27%
It should not .................................................... 62%
Not sure  10%


That 35 point margin opposed was 13 point drop from a September 2011 poll PPP did (which was 21-69 for a 48 point margin).

Support for civil unions improved from 48-51 (-3) in 2011 to 54-43 (+11)

Almost all improvement in marriage support came from Democrats, with increases among independents and Republicans being within the MoE.

Most improvement in civil union support came from Democrats, with a lesser increase among independents, while that among Republicans improved by less than the MoE in this case also.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

I added another red to deal with deeply opposed states like mine and even tho PBR didn't want to go back too far, I see no reason to think a South Carolina poll today would yield a different color than the December poll, tho it is conceivable that support is above 30% today.
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Holmes
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« Reply #527 on: May 15, 2013, 04:29:10 PM »

Arizona, Colorado and Michigan should put forward an initiative for 2016.

Only Colorado could conceivably pass it, though. Let's be honest.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #528 on: May 15, 2013, 05:07:15 PM »

Taking a look at that Kansas-poll, I'd have to say that was a civil union poll not a marriage poll, so I removed it. Added the December polls from PPP for OR (54-40) and GA (27-65), but decided not to add pre-election polls.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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Jordan
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« Reply #529 on: May 15, 2013, 05:14:14 PM »

The only states that I would be comfortable putting this on the ballot (that don't already have same sex marriage) are California, Oregon, and Colorado (I would be comfortable with Hawaii, but only the legislature can enact it).
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #530 on: May 15, 2013, 05:18:11 PM »

What would have to happen in Michigan for the amendment to be repealed?  Would the legislature have to act, or can the people petition for it?
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Benj
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« Reply #531 on: May 15, 2013, 05:49:06 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2013, 05:53:04 PM by Benj »

What would have to happen in Michigan for the amendment to be repealed?  Would the legislature have to act, or can the people petition for it?

Michigan can have constitutional amendments by petition and could repeal their constitutional amendment without a vote of the legislature. However, they can't actually legalize same-sex marriage by referendum; the (heavily gerrymandered and Republican) legislature would need to vote to allow same-sex marriage. (I suppose they could put same-sex marriage in the state constitution, but that seems far-fetched.)

The only states that I would be comfortable putting this on the ballot (that don't already have same sex marriage) are California, Oregon, and Colorado (I would be comfortable with Hawaii, but only the legislature can enact it).

I'd be comfortable here in New Jersey, as well, and also in Nevada and New Mexico (none of which allow referendums, however).*

*Nevada apparently can vote on constitutional amendments without a legislative vote. However, for whatever reason they are attempting to repeal their constitutional amendment at the moment by going through legislative channels (which requires a vote this session (in 2013), a vote next session (in 2015) and then a referendum (in 2016). I'm not sure why they're not just directly initiating a referendum.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #532 on: May 15, 2013, 06:20:03 PM »

Arizona, Colorado and Michigan should put forward an initiative for 2016.

Only Colorado could conceivably pass it, though. Let's be honest.

Polls look good now at least in Michigan and there is a reason I said 2016 instead 2014. Three years ago did you think that Minnesota would have it? 
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Nhoj
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« Reply #533 on: May 15, 2013, 08:07:06 PM »

http://www.washingtonpost.com/virginians-changing-views-of-gay-marriage/2013/05/14/883b5f14-bd0e-11e2-9b09-1638acc3942e_graphic.html

56% now support gay marriage in Va according to WaPo. Including 40% of republicans.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #534 on: May 15, 2013, 09:55:21 PM »

What would have to happen in Michigan for the amendment to be repealed?  Would the legislature have to act, or can the people petition for it?

The current state legislature owes too much to the Religious Right to act upon a pro-gay sentiment of any kind. If Michigan voters turn on the Republican-dominated state legislature and vote out a now-unpopular Governor  in 2014, a Democratic Governor and State legislature could either enact same-sex marriage or offer it in a referendum on the pretext of economic necessity. It would be good for Michigan business, including tourism.

But so long as the GOP-dominated legislature can get away with legislating as if Michigan were Oklahoma, same-sex marriage and any assertion of rights of homosexuals is out of the question. Count on Republicans stirring up anti-gay sentiment in 2014.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #535 on: May 16, 2013, 01:19:49 AM »

What poll says Kansas has more gay marriage support than Colorado and Illinois?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #536 on: May 16, 2013, 01:22:21 AM »

What poll says Kansas has more gay marriage support than Colorado and Illinois?

The poll on the previous page.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #537 on: May 16, 2013, 03:13:14 AM »

What poll says Kansas has more gay marriage support than Colorado and Illinois?

The poll on the previous page.

It's not a poll on gay marriage, though.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #538 on: May 16, 2013, 06:06:30 AM »

http://www.washingtonpost.com/virginians-changing-views-of-gay-marriage/2013/05/14/883b5f14-bd0e-11e2-9b09-1638acc3942e_graphic.html

Capital Insights/Washington Post -- Virginia.

"Should it be legal or  illegal for gay couples to get married?"

56% legal, 33% illegal

A similar response in 2011 was 46% in favor, 43% opposed.

I was not going back to January or earlier, but there are few polls to that effect from January. This thread does not go back that far. The Kansas poll is technically of civil unions, but the language all but recognizes the right of same-sex marriage. Still, it does not say marriage. To be sure the WaPo poll in Virginia says nothing about lesbians getting married, but close enough.

Republican state legislators are out of touch with voters in Virginia as in Michigan. I see a rapid shift in attitudes in Virginia. At the very time in which Americans are getting more intolerant of spousal abuse and especially child sexual abuse (I strongly endorse this trend) they increasingly accept of homosexuality. 

If I am a Republican activist, I recognize the futility of exploiting anti-homophobic sentiment in political campaigns except in the Deep and Mountain South, and I wouldn't trust even the LDS hierarchy in Arizona, Idaho, Utah, or Wyoming. The LDS hierarchy can always have some 'revelation' that homosexuality is less a personal choice than is drinking coffee or using cancerweed products. 



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
[/quote]
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Fritz
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« Reply #539 on: May 16, 2013, 03:19:12 PM »

Does anyone have a map that shows:

1. states where SSM is legal
2. states where SSM is constitutionally banned
3. neither

??
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danny
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« Reply #540 on: May 16, 2013, 03:39:45 PM »

Does anyone have a map that shows:

1. states where SSM is legal
2. states where SSM is constitutionally banned
3. neither

??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Samesex_marriage_in_USA.svg
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Benj
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« Reply #541 on: May 16, 2013, 04:10:35 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2013, 04:13:30 PM by Benj »

For those looking to decipher the map:

Dark blue: Same-sex marriage legal
Medium blue: Civil unions with rights equivalent to marriage available
Light blue: Unions with limited rights available
Gray: No laws on same-sex marriage or civil unions
Light red: Statute bans same-sex marriage
Medium red: Constitution bans same-sex marriage
Dark red: Constitution bans same-sex marriage and civil unions with equivalent rights

The (2) is for the complicated status of same-sex marriage in California. The (1) is apparently for same-sex marriage not yet being available in Minnesota, though the recently passed same-sex marriage statutes in Delaware and Rhode Island also have also not yet come into effect.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #542 on: May 22, 2013, 11:27:05 AM »

New TN poll:



The poll results suggest a marked shift in Tennesseans’ views since 2006, when 81 percent of voters approved an amendment to the state constitution defining marriage between one man and one woman as “the only legally recognized marital contract” in the state.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20130521/NEWS/305220071/Poll-finds-growing-support-for-same-sex-marriage
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #543 on: May 22, 2013, 11:30:11 AM »

Previous PPP polls in the states have shown though that only a small part of the "civil union" people also support SSM.

So, in this case it would be ca. 35-60 opposed, with 5% undecided.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #544 on: May 23, 2013, 01:25:35 AM »

New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #545 on: May 23, 2013, 08:24:33 AM »

Updating the thread map for the new polls from Tennessee and New Mexico:



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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« Reply #546 on: May 23, 2013, 02:44:09 PM »

New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #547 on: May 23, 2013, 06:57:18 PM »

Is SUSA robocalling cell phones or only landlines? I remember then skewing old.
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Benj
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« Reply #548 on: May 23, 2013, 07:20:02 PM »

Is SUSA robocalling cell phones or only landlines? I remember then skewing old.

Doesn't look to skew that old, but only 63% among under-35s is a little suspicious. Interesting confirmation for Native American support for SSM, though; New Mexico might be the only state with a big enough Native population to get a not-totally-ridiculous sample size.

Poll seems off, I agree, but who knows. SUSA does have a reputation for being random.
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Seattle
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« Reply #549 on: May 24, 2013, 11:01:26 PM »

Is SUSA robocalling cell phones or only landlines? I remember then skewing old.

Doesn't look to skew that old, but only 63% among under-35s is a little suspicious. Interesting confirmation for Native American support for SSM, though; New Mexico might be the only state with a big enough Native population to get a not-totally-ridiculous sample size.

Poll seems off, I agree, but who knows. SUSA does have a reputation for being random.
What about Arizona or Oklahoma?
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