Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Smash255]

New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.

Remember how during the run up to the election many Republicans were complaining that the Party Id's in polls were to Democratic and that wound up being false?

This might be one that id\s a party id issue.  Party id in the poll is Dem +3, it was Dem +12 in the exit polls from November

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.

Remember how during the run up to the election many Republicans were complaining that the Party Id's in polls were to Democratic and that wound up being false?

This might be one that id\s a party id issue.  Party id in the poll is Dem +3, it was Dem +12 in the exit polls from November

Well, the 5% who want it neither allowed or banned are the ones who have their way there.

[Jordan]

New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.

Remember how during the run up to the election many Republicans were complaining that the Party Id's in polls were to Democratic and that wound up being false?

This might be one that id\s a party id issue.  Party id in the poll is Dem +3, it was Dem +12 in the exit polls from November

Well, the 5% who want it neither allowed or banned are the ones who have their way there.

This is what always got me about New Mexico same sex marriage laws.  If it isn't defined in the law as being banned, shouldn't it be De-facto legal?

I mean, it works that way for about every other law.

[Holmes]

I think I've heard that it's because of something stupid like the marriage certificates list "husband" and "wife", which seems strange to me because that makes it seem like the department that is in charge of producing or editing marriage certificates hold the power of making same-sex marriage legal in New Mexico or not.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Santa Fe's city attorney has been arguing that same-ex marriages are already legal in New Mexico, and NM AG has been studying the issue.  Currently same-sex marriages from other states are recognized.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

New Mexico does NOT support gay marriage yet:

Should marriages between same-sex couples be legally allowed in New Mexico? Or legally banned in New Mexico?

44% Allowed
51% Banned

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b470cfab-ff05-45b8-bb3f-01c54338a6ad

Seven points is a surprising margin for that state.

Remember how during the run up to the election many Republicans were complaining that the Party Id's in polls were to Democratic and that wound up being false?

This might be one that id\s a party id issue.  Party id in the poll is Dem +3, it was Dem +12 in the exit polls from November

Well, the 5% who want it neither allowed or banned are the ones who have their way there.

This is what always got me about New Mexico same sex marriage laws.  If it isn't defined in the law as being banned, shouldn't it be De-facto legal?

I mean, it works that way for about every other law.

I don't think it works that way for marriage.  A couple seeking a marriage license could only be recognized if the state's marriage laws specifically permit them to.  If the NM marriage laws as written specifically mention heterosexual couples but not homosexual ones, then gay couples don't get the benefits.  A judge, however, could easily extend those rights to homosexuals, I believe, if said marriage laws were sued for violating the equal protection clause.

[King]

New Mexico is probably the only state in the country where people don't vote against the economic interests for social issues.   

Santa Fe and Albuquerque probably have strong SSM support, but Obama didn't win the state on those two counties alone.  There are a lot of highly religious rural counties in this state that vote Democrat every 4 years because that they are poor and need government assistance.

Trust me, if you've ever been to Mora County, you'll know queers and Republicans are equally not welcome.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

NM like RI and NY used to has no law against gay marriage. I think NJ might be in that category, too. But generally people have argued that you need to explicitly legalize gay marriage to grant licenses. However they can quietly recognize out of state gay marriages, so they have a slight advantage over the 6 states that have just a statute ban (HI, WY, IL, IN, PA, WV).

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.

[Holmes]

Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.

5%.

[Blue3]

Hawaii will probably be the Pacific Rhode Island. An extremely Democratic legislature that doesn't do anything.



Oh, and can you guys believe an entire week went by without a US Senator announcing support for gay marriage, or a US state legalizing gay marriage, or another country legalizing gay marriage?? Seriously, it feels like the first week of no news on the gay marriage issue since Rob Portman came out. Though the Supreme Court decisions on DOMA and Prop8 are getting pretty close...

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.

5%.

why so low?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.

5%.

why so low?

Hawaii only started to recognize civil unions as of the beginning of 2012.  I know that this issue seems to moving fast, but for it to go from civil unions to marriage in only four years would be rather fast.  At least Hawaii alone of those states that passed a constitutional amendment did not have the amendment directly ban same-sex marriage but only gave the Assembly authority to ban same-sex marriage if it chose to do so.

Bills to recognize same-sex marriage were introduced in the Hawaii House and Senate this year, but the only action taken this year was to refer them to committees where nothing was done about them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.

5%.

Are there ever primary challenges from the left in Hawaii? Because they sure need some.

[Tender Branson]

Support for homo-marriages reaches a new high in CA:



A majority of voters favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. This represents a recent shift in attitudes toward same-sex marriage. When the PPIC Statewide Survey first asked the question in 2000, 39% of voters were in favor and 55% were opposed. The margin narrowed over the next decade until 2010, when 51% favored legalizing same-sex marriage for the first time. Today, a record 58% of registered voters are in favor, while 36% are opposed.

For many years there was a strong partisan divide on same-sex marriage, with majorities of Democrats and independents in favor and Republicans opposed. But Republicans are now closely divided (46% in favor, 49% opposed). Remarkably, Republican support has doubled since October 2008—just before the passage of Proposition 8—and has jumped 16 points since January 2013.

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=1059

[All Along The Watchtower]

^^^Excellent news.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the Supreme Court does the unexpected and upholds Proposition 8, when is the earliest a repeal initiative be voted on in California?

Updating the thread map for the new poll from California:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

(Note: a slight revision to the color key from last time, but it did not affect any states.)

[TDAS04]

So, should an amendment legalizing SSM be placed on the California ballot in 2014?  Or should the gays in California just hope that SCOTUS legalizes it in their state?

Since California is such a large state, it would be far more costly than in a state such as Oregon or Maine.  Still, it must be tempting with those poll numbers, and a SCOTUS ruling against prop 8 is far from certain.

[Thomas D]

Illinois making us wait untill the last minute.

[pbrower2a]

Quiet for three weeks here?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Quiet for three weeks here?

We'll probably get a flurry of polls once SCOTUS announces its decision in the DOMA case.

[Tender Branson]

Montana (PPP):

Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?

It should be allowed ........................................ 42%
It should not .................................................... 48%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .....................................................39%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ..........................32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship .......................27%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_628.pdf

...

As usual, only a small fraction of the "civil union people" would also support gay marriage ...

[Tender Branson]

Time to fill in the map:

Ohio (Quinnipiac)

48-44 support

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1884

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updating the thread map for the new polls from Montana and Ohio and the decision in the Prop 8 case:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot.  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.