Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Tender Branson]

Updating the thread map for the new polls from Montana and Ohio and the decision in the Prop 8 case:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Ernest, which polls would you like to add on your map ?

Only polls done in 2013 ?

I have found some polls from other states as well that you can include.

[Tender Branson]

KY-PPP: 27-65 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/kentucky-miscellany.html

LA-PPP: 29-59 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/louisiana-miscellany.html

TX-PPP: 35-55 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas.html

WI-PPP: 44-46 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/wisconsin-miscellany.html

KS-PPP: 39-51 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/kansas-miscellany.html

PA-Quinnipiac: 47-43 legal

http://www.politicspa.com/quinnipiac-poll-pa-voters-support-same-sex-marriage-by-a-small-margin/45702

NV (POS): 54-43 legal

http://www.rannv.org/documents/23/Release%20February%2013%20Survey.pdf

...

The last FL poll I can find is from December 2012 from Quinnipiac: 43-45 illegal

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/gaysouthflorida/2012/12/poll-florida-voters-split-on-gay-marriage-oppose-legalizing-pot.html

[Tender Branson]

Updating Ernest's map with the above polls:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

I think all the remaining states on the map would all still oppose gay marriage, many of them by huge margins.

Except Hawaii.

[Nhoj]

I think all the remaining states on the map would all still oppose gay marriage, many of them by huge margins.

Except Hawaii.

Indiana probably has atleast 40% support and perhaps as much as 45%

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updating Ernest's map with the above polls:

It was originally pbrower's map, but I modified slightly to allow better coverage of the ranges, and I'm going to do it again to add another band of values for the noes.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

I think all the remaining states on the map would all still oppose gay marriage, many of them by huge margins.

Except Hawaii.

Indiana probably has atleast 40% support and perhaps as much as 45%

Indeed.

After some googling, I found this poll from December:

45% support
45% oppose

http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/indiana/poll-oppostition-to-same-sex-marriage-permanent-ban

...

Which would make IN the first yellow state on the map.

[Tender Branson]

Hawaii was actually 42-50 illegal in a January poll:

http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/01/16/18077-civil-beat-poll-young-people-tipping-the-scales-toward-gay-marriage

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updated for Hawaii and Indiana

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

There are some polls from 2011 to Mid-2012 from states like WV, MO, UT and so on.

Should we include those on the map or not ?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd prefer to not go more than a year back considering how the situation is fluid:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf MO 36-52 June 2012

http://www.omaha.com/article/20121004/NEWS/710049903  NE 32-61 Oct 2012

Updated for Nebraska and Missouri above and Arkansas in the post below.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I endorse the change in the color choices.

[pbrower2a]

I'd prefer to not go more than a year back considering how the situation is fluid:

The 2012 election is as far back as we need go.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf MO 36-52 June 2012

http://www.omaha.com/article/20121004/NEWS/710049903  NE 32-61 Oct 2012

Updated for Nebraska and Missouri above and Arkansas in the post below.

I'm not saying that the polls for Missouri or Nebraska are inaccurate, but the 2012 election is as far back as we dare go. Same-sex marriage was basically shelved during the 2012 election. Afterwards -- Indiana polls are rare enough that I would go back to December of last year.   

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Texas, PPP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/07/texas-miscellany.html

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

It looks like the South is not "evolving" yet.

Except FL and VA ...

[greenforest32]

AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot.  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot.  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?

They may think that it would be likelier to help bring progressive voters to the ballot box than conservative voters, which even if it goes to defeat would still be a positive for them in other races.  Personally, I think that won't be the case, but it would be a logical reason to attempt a referendum you knew was going to lose.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It looks like the South is not "evolving" yet.

Except FL and VA ...

It's not the South that is resisting evolving, it's the Bible Belt that's resisting, and most of the population of Virginia and Florida are outside the Belt.

[Holmes]

AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot.  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?

When you live in a state like Arkansas, the only option you have is to try and try again. There will be no help from the legislature, governor or top court, so you have to be the one to help yourself.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot.  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?

When you live in a state like Arkansas, the only option you have is to try and try again. There will be no help from the legislature, governor or top court, so you have to be the one to help yourself.

Having the debate will help move the numbers toward the right side. It certainly can't make things worse there, can it?

[Tender Branson]

IA (PPP):

47-44 legal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Iowa_710.pdf

[Badger]

Hawaii was actually 42-50 illegal in a January poll:

http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/01/16/18077-civil-beat-poll-young-people-tipping-the-scales-toward-gay-marriage

See sole comment in linked article about piss-poor wording of polled question. Unreliable poll IMO.

[Badger]

KY-PPP: 27-65 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/kentucky-miscellany.html

LA-PPP: 29-59 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/louisiana-miscellany.html

TX-PPP: 35-55 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas.html

WI-PPP: 44-46 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/wisconsin-miscellany.html

KS-PPP: 39-51 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/kansas-miscellany.html

PA-Quinnipiac: 47-43 legal

http://www.politicspa.com/quinnipiac-poll-pa-voters-support-same-sex-marriage-by-a-small-margin/45702

NV (POS): 54-43 legal

http://www.rannv.org/documents/23/Release%20February%2013%20Survey.pdf

...

The last FL poll I can find is from December 2012 from Quinnipiac: 43-45 illegal

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/gaysouthflorida/2012/12/poll-florida-voters-split-on-gay-marriage-oppose-legalizing-pot.html

When oh when will people realize that in most states civil unions are the way to go? They'll pass in all but a handful of states, but would pass in scads of states where gay marriage can't for many years. Furthermore, it'll speed up gay marriage in those states by overcoming the conservatives fear of the unknown.

The issue isn't whether a second rate form of marriage should be accepted. Its whether to accept civil unions and gay marriage in 5-10 years, or no marital rights whatsoever and gay marriage in 20-30 years (maybe).

[publicunofficial]

KY-PPP: 27-65 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/kentucky-miscellany.html

LA-PPP: 29-59 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/louisiana-miscellany.html

TX-PPP: 35-55 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-could-win-texas.html

WI-PPP: 44-46 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/wisconsin-miscellany.html

KS-PPP: 39-51 illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/kansas-miscellany.html

PA-Quinnipiac: 47-43 legal

http://www.politicspa.com/quinnipiac-poll-pa-voters-support-same-sex-marriage-by-a-small-margin/45702

NV (POS): 54-43 legal

http://www.rannv.org/documents/23/Release%20February%2013%20Survey.pdf

...

The last FL poll I can find is from December 2012 from Quinnipiac: 43-45 illegal

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/gaysouthflorida/2012/12/poll-florida-voters-split-on-gay-marriage-oppose-legalizing-pot.html

When oh when will people realize that in most states civil unions are the way to go? They'll pass in all but a handful of states, but would pass in scads of states where gay marriage can't for many years. Furthermore, it'll speed up gay marriage in those states by overcoming the conservatives fear of the unknown.

The issue isn't whether a second rate form of marriage should be accepted. Its whether to accept civil unions and gay marriage in 5-10 years, or no marital rights whatsoever and gay marriage in 20-30 years (maybe).

Except Republican legislatures won't pass civil unions/domestic partnerships, and past elections have shown that people who support civil unions in polls will vote against them when given the option.

"I'm fine with gays getting some recognition, but if it's my decision I'll vote NO."