Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[pbrower2a]

Updated to include Florida poll.

Less than 1% difference is effectively a tie, which applies to polls with fractional differences. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If they'd reported whole numbers it would have been 47-46 against once rounded.  Now if you want yellow to be -1 to +1, I can support that, but it is disingenuous to suggest the result is ±0 when it isn't.  Even if you round the decimal difference, -0.6 rounds to -1.

[pbrower2a]

-Georgia voters are still strongly opposed to gay marriage- only 32% support it with 60% against. But even there you can see the wheels turning- last year we found 27% of voters in the state supportive and 65% opposed. Voters under 30 support it by a 56/31 marriage. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-miscellany.html

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[old timey villain]

-Georgia voters are still strongly opposed to gay marriage- only 32% support it with 60% against. But even there you can see the wheels turning- last year we found 27% of voters in the state supportive and 65% opposed. Voters under 30 support it by a 56/31 marriage. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-miscellany.html

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

ugh, get it together Georgia

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updated to include Georgia poll. (Note, my map differs from pbrower's because we disagree on whether the Florida poll should be counted as a tie.)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Other notes from Ohio:

-For the first time ever PPP finds a plurality of Ohio voters in support of gay marriage- 48% favor it to 42% who are opposed. There's been a massive shift in attitudes over the last two years- in October of 2011 we found only 32% of voters supporting it and 55% against. Younger voters in particular are sparking the movement toward acceptance of same sex marriage- those under 45 favor it by a 64/28 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/ohioans-skeptical-about-kasich-2016-and-more.html#more

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[barfbag]

This is nice to see. I support same sex marriage, but think the states should decide.

[ajc0918]

This is nice to see. I support same sex marriage, but think the states should decide.

Do you also think states should be able to ban interracial marriage?

[Person Man]

Other notes from Ohio:

-For the first time ever PPP finds a plurality of Ohio voters in support of gay marriage- 48% favor it to 42% who are opposed. There's been a massive shift in attitudes over the last two years- in October of 2011 we found only 32% of voters supporting it and 55% against. Younger voters in particular are sparking the movement toward acceptance of same sex marriage- those under 45 favor it by a 64/28 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/ohioans-skeptical-about-kasich-2016-and-more.html#more

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

At this point, a majority of states' voters support gay marriage. About a third of the population lives in a state that allows gay marriage and almost a half live in a state that allows gay marriage by any other name.

[pbrower2a]

Court decision, New Mexico.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[/quote]

At this point, a majority of states' voters support gay marriage. About a third of the population lives in a state that allows gay marriage and almost a half live in a state that allows gay marriage by any other name.
[/quote]

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I wouldn't color New Mexico white just yet.  The case still has to go to the state's Supreme Court.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yup.  It is too soon to decolor New Mexico, tho it probably will be the next state to go white on the map.  Maybe if one of those court cases had applied statewide, but they haven't so far.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Indiana, Bellwether Research:

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SORRY, JCL

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updated to include the Indiana poll in the post above.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[old timey villain]

Updated to include the Indiana poll in the post above.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Have you factored in the recent Georgia poll on SSM? You can find the details on the georgia megathread in the gubernatorial/statewide elections page.

[pbrower2a]

Updated to include the Indiana poll in the post above.

Congratulations to Indiana!  None for West Virginia, though.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_WV_925.pdf

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If it weren't for the fact that I don't think it really matters, I'd be tempted to go back and separate the under 30% group into under 25% and 25-29.9% groups.

[pbrower2a]

If it weren't for the fact that I don't think it really matters, I'd be tempted to go back and separate the under 30% group into under 25% and 25-29.9% groups.

It wouldn't matter. Same-sex marriage is not going to be legalized in any state in which support is under 30% except through the decision of a federal court -- most likely the Supreme Court.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If it weren't for the fact that I don't think it really matters, I'd be tempted to go back and separate the under 30% group into under 25% and 25-29.9% groups.

It wouldn't matter. Same-sex marriage is not going to be legalized in any state in which support is under 30% except through the decision of a federal court -- most likely the Supreme Court.

Exactly.  The only question is when that case will be decided by the Supreme Court, 2016 or 2017?  A case might reach them by 2016, but they might want to delay it until after the election.

[Joe Republic]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

[Sol]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

Well, if GA now supports SSM, Wisconsin could be anywhere!

[Gass3268]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

I've seen different numbers in Wisconsin. Marquette's polling last year before the election showed that people were in favor of SSM, but I don't think they've polled that question this year for some reason.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

Well, if GA now supports SSM, Wisconsin could be anywhere!

I've seen different numbers in Wisconsin. Marquette's polling last year before the election showed that people were in favor of SSM, but I don't think they've polled that question this year for some reason.

In favor of SSM or civil unions?  While the latest polls I've seen out of both Georgia and Wisconsin show a solid majority in both states are in favor of recognizing same-sex couples, when the M-word is mentioned support plummeted to the point that in Wisconsin a slim plurality opposed and in Georgia a solid majority opposed.  If you remove civil unions as an option, only about 15% of those who favor civil unions but not marriage tend to support marriage in that case.