Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
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Author Topic: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws  (Read 188888 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #650 on: September 27, 2013, 07:13:06 AM »

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

I doubt that. Wisconsin is culturally similar in demographics and voting patterns to Iowa. Politically it is closer to Virginia than to West Virginia. I wish that PPP had asked the question in Wisconsin. There will be plenty of opportunities due to  heated  gubernatorial and Senate races.

Social conservatism in America relates closely to Christian fundamentalism and eveangelicalism except among Mormons.   
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #651 on: September 27, 2013, 09:31:04 AM »

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

I doubt that. Wisconsin is culturally similar in demographics and voting patterns to Iowa. Politically it is closer to Virginia than to West Virginia. I wish that PPP had asked the question in Wisconsin. There will be plenty of opportunities due to heated gubernatorial and Senate races. 

Similar is not the same as. In polling, Iowa has consistently been several percentage points higher than in Wisconsin in its support of SSM. Yet even now, four years after the courts there required the state to recognize SSM, the latest poll numbers from July would place Iowa in the same aqua shade as Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, with a plurality, but not a majority supporting it.  44-46,45-46, 45-45, 46-45 are the most probable numbers from a Wisconsin poll now based on the trends within the states and polls in adjacent states.  Indeed, if anything, a comparison with Iowa would suggest no change in Wisconsin opinion.  In February Iowa polled 46-43 (+3) while in July it polled 47-44 (+3).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #652 on: September 27, 2013, 07:09:58 PM »

If the legalization of gay marriage were on this year’s ballot, would you vote in favor of the legalization of gay marriage or against it?

55% You would vote in favor of the legalization of gay marriage
38% Against
9% Not sure

http://chpp.kean.edu/poll/new-jersey-survey-1000-likely-voters-0




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #653 on: October 15, 2013, 08:35:14 PM »

Despite Constitutional Ban, A North Carolina Clerk Accepts First Same-Sex Marriage Applications
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #654 on: October 16, 2013, 03:20:20 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2013, 03:22:43 PM by Scott »

Dueling polls in Indiana on same-sex marriage

The Indiana Family Institute released the following poll:
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Whereas Freedom Indiana released this poll:
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Different story in Virginia:

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For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #655 on: October 16, 2013, 04:53:37 PM »

Besides that they likely used different screens for likely voters, there was one other significant difference between the two polls.  In the Freedom Indiana poll informed people before hand that there was already a law on Indiana's books preventing recognition of SSM before asking people if they supported an amendment.  The IFI poll suggests that people were left with the impression that the amendment would add something not already covered by existing law.

So his suggests that there are a fair number of Indianans who are opposed to SSM, but see no reason to make a ban part of the state constitution when it is already part of the law.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #656 on: October 16, 2013, 06:05:59 PM »

Georgia needs to be updated. There was a poll released on 9/23 via the AJC that showed 48/43 support (initial release was subscription-only, but poll question/results can be viewed here and is also referenced here).

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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #657 on: October 16, 2013, 07:16:48 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2013, 07:20:10 PM by Scott »

Georgia, really?  How reliable is AJC?





For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #658 on: October 16, 2013, 08:11:42 PM »

Georgia, really?  How reliable is AJC?

AJC usually uses the same pollster as WaPo (Abt SRBI). It would appear to be an outlier, but I doubt that it is that far off. Still, a bit of skepticism is necessary; PPP polled GA in August and showed 60/32 (against).

Here's their final poll for Georgia in 2012.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #659 on: October 18, 2013, 03:18:00 PM »

With the New Jersey Supreme Court refusing to issue a stay in the order requiring SSM licenses to be issued starting Monday, time to turn NJ white:



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #660 on: October 21, 2013, 10:11:32 PM »

Indiana Family Institution is a right-wing, Christian fundamentalist group. As such its polling could be suspect. I notice that its headlines include:


Iowa Small Business Owners Sued for not Promoting Homosexuality...Is Indiana Next?
October 11, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Poll Shows Strong Support for Marriage Amendment among Hoosier Voters
October 10, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
The Social Costs of Abandoning the Meaning of Marriage
September 13, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Leading Academics Can't Make the Case for Evolution
- See more at: http://www.hoosierfamily.org/#sthash.FyH5d3qA.dpuf

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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #661 on: October 21, 2013, 11:20:08 PM »

Indiana Family Institution is a right-wing, Christian fundamentalist group. As such its polling could be suspect.

Yeah, I'm not sanguine about how IFI picked likely voters.  Conversely, Freedom Indiana did a push poll in that they provided information beyond the language of the amendment prior to asking the question and they asked registered voters rather than likely voters.  For an off year election that will be even more significant than with a presidential election.  I can't see including either poll in the map.
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barfbag
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« Reply #662 on: October 21, 2013, 11:25:27 PM »

Indiana Family Institution is a right-wing, Christian fundamentalist group. As such its polling could be suspect. I notice that its headlines include:


Iowa Small Business Owners Sued for not Promoting Homosexuality...Is Indiana Next?
October 11, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Poll Shows Strong Support for Marriage Amendment among Hoosier Voters
October 10, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
The Social Costs of Abandoning the Meaning of Marriage
September 13, 2013
Author: Ryan.McCann
Leading Academics Can't Make the Case for Evolution
- See more at: http://www.hoosierfamily.org/#sthash.FyH5d3qA.dpuf



Reading your headlines makes me think my party is just as bad as the other side when it comes to picking favorites, but only when we do pick favorites. Hoosier Family sounds very biased as does 99% of media. One of my favorites is the USA Today where I haven't noticed much partisanship.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #663 on: October 21, 2013, 11:37:20 PM »

New poll shows dramatic support for marriage equality in Illinois
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Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows
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Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?





For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #664 on: October 21, 2013, 11:41:25 PM »


Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows
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Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?

you're going to get racially informed answers with possibly including words like 'traditional', 'culture', and 'honor'
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #665 on: October 21, 2013, 11:57:09 PM »


Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows
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Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?

you're going to get racially informed answers with possibly including words like 'traditional', 'culture', and 'honor'

Nah.  It's probably just anger at the gays for stealing the rainbow.  Wink
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #666 on: October 22, 2013, 01:28:12 AM »


Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows
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Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?


Many Hawaiian Polynesians/Asians tend to vote in the same way that Southern blacks do AKA heavily Democratic but opposed to things like gay marriage
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TDAS04
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« Reply #667 on: October 22, 2013, 10:35:21 AM »


Hawaii Support For Same-Sex Marriage Grows
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Hawaii's numbers are truly baffling.  Is there any good explanation for them?


Many Hawaiian Polynesians/Asians tend to vote in the same way that Southern blacks do AKA heavily Democratic but opposed to things like gay marriage

Asian Democrats are not as pro-SSM as white liberals, but they're not as opposed as blacks (nor are they as overwhelmingly Democratic).  On prop 8 in California, whites and Asians voted the same (rejecting prop 8 with 51%).

Still, Hawaii might be slightly different, and the Asian population probably does make the state less pro-SSM than what such a Democratic state would typically be.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #668 on: October 23, 2013, 07:18:31 PM »


Arkansas Poll shows modest improvement in SSM approval, but still dismal from a national perspective.

http://plsc.uark.edu/7129.php

Figures are among very likely voters, change is from the 2011 version of the Arkansas Poll

 24% (+2%) Same Sex Marriage
 23% (+1%) Civil Unions, but no SSM
 46% (-4%) No legal recognition at all

Since the map is of the two pronged question and not the three pronged one asked here, I didn't add it to the map, tho really the only question is what shade of red would be the result.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #669 on: October 25, 2013, 11:24:31 AM »

Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #670 on: October 25, 2013, 11:37:04 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2013, 11:47:52 AM by Rep. Scott »



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #671 on: October 25, 2013, 11:56:11 AM »


Cheesy
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #672 on: October 25, 2013, 12:01:48 PM »


I hate to be a downer, but I notice the article says they surveyed equal numbers of landline and cell phone users.  Wouldn't that mean that the cell phone users are overweighted and thus the poll skews young and thus would overstate SSM support?
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TDAS04
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« Reply #673 on: October 25, 2013, 01:28:11 PM »

I find Montana's promising survey results more believable than Georgia's, even if both are inflated. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #674 on: October 25, 2013, 07:05:41 PM »



It would be acceptable if the results are normed so that the different populations fit the general distribution. Thus if one calls 500 people who have landlines and get a 40-60 result (for/against)  among them and 100 with cell phones only and  get a 60-40 result , and know that the split in land-line users and cell-phone users is 80-20 landlines, then one gets a 44-56 result.
I hate to be a downer, but I notice the article says they surveyed equal numbers of landline and cell phone users.  Wouldn't that mean that the cell phone users are overweighted and thus the poll skews young and thus would overstate SSM support?
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