Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
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Author Topic: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws  (Read 188862 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #675 on: October 25, 2013, 11:26:26 PM »


I hate to be a downer, but I notice the article says they surveyed equal numbers of landline and cell phone users.  Wouldn't that mean that the cell phone users are overweighted and thus the poll skews young and thus would overstate SSM support?

It would be acceptable if the results are normed so that the different populations fit the general distribution. Thus if one calls 500 people who have landlines and get a 40-60 result (for/against)  among them and 100 with cell phones only and  get a 60-40 result , and know that the split in land-line users and cell-phone users is 80-20 landlines, then one gets a 44-56 result.

Except there's no indication they normed the data.

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2013/2013_State_Poll.pdf

They also didn't release info on the age or partisan distribution of their sample, but looking at their past polls, I see they've never done so. (Tho they do at times release info on how particular subsamples polled, they don't include the subsample sizes.)

I don't doubt that SSM support has increased since they last polled this subject three years ago:

http://www.msubillings.edu/cas/nams/MSUB_Poll_Oct_2010.pdf

Then the numbers were:
Support: 33.9%
Oppose: 51.6%

A majority (58.5%) of Democrats and plurality of independents (45.2%) supported legalization. A majority (72.2%) of Republicans opposed legalization.

The partisan breakdown in the 2013 poll was:

A majority (76%) of Democrats and plurality of independents (47%) supported same sex marriage, while a majority (61%) of Republicans opposed them.

Those numbers are reasonably consistent with the change in the topline numbers, but as I said, I'm concerned the high number of cell phone responses have skewed the age distribution younger than it actually is and SSM is one issue where getting the age distribution correct is crucial for an accurate result.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #676 on: October 29, 2013, 06:24:36 PM »

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School. A regional anomaly vanishes.

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https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/10/29/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-in-tight-race-with-burke-for-wisconsin-governor-in-2014/



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #677 on: October 29, 2013, 08:13:50 PM »

NJ should be white.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #678 on: October 29, 2013, 08:32:32 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2013, 08:41:07 PM by True Federalist »

Yeah, several states are off in that map of yours pbrower. Besides New Jersey, Montana, Indiana, and Hawaii are off, possibly others.  You must have snagged an out of date map.  The differences are all showing greater support of SSM, save in Indiana.  Looks like for that state you picked the more favorable of the two slanted push polls from dubious pollsters that were released at about the same time, but which no one else has been including in the map.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #679 on: October 30, 2013, 12:48:16 AM »

I did clip and paste from an obsolete map. Mea culpa.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #680 on: October 30, 2013, 01:30:19 AM »

I did clip and paste from an obsolete map. Mea culpa.

We're all human, except maybe barfbag considering how often he posts.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #681 on: October 30, 2013, 02:24:08 AM »

I did clip and paste from an obsolete map. Mea culpa.

We're all human, except maybe barfbag considering how often he posts.

You think t_host is human too?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #682 on: October 30, 2013, 03:07:05 AM »

There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #683 on: October 30, 2013, 09:55:16 AM »

There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

If black attitudes on SSM were to change to conform to Democratic orthodoxy, then yes the South could become supportive of SSM.  However, given the racial polarization of politics down here, I don't expect any change in the law down here by the GOP dominated legislatures, so the change in the law will have to wait for the Supreme Court ruling in a few years time.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #684 on: October 30, 2013, 10:14:44 AM »

There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

If black attitudes on SSM were to change to conform to Democratic orthodoxy, then yes the South could become supportive of SSM.  However, given the racial polarization of politics down here, I don't expect any change in the law down here by the GOP dominated legislatures, so the change in the law will have to wait for the Supreme Court ruling in a few years time.

Three words:

Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

The conservatives in surrounding counties, even if they are dyed-in-the-wool racists, find themselves having to deal with gays and lesbians in certain settings of business.   
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Person Man
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« Reply #685 on: October 30, 2013, 10:40:14 AM »

There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

If black attitudes on SSM were to change to conform to Democratic orthodoxy, then yes the South could become supportive of SSM.  However, given the racial polarization of politics down here, I don't expect any change in the law down here by the GOP dominated legislatures, so the change in the law will have to wait for the Supreme Court ruling in a few years time.

...with "interesting" results. See the thread about the young new assistant on FOX.

Three words:

Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

The conservatives in surrounding counties, even if they are dyed-in-the-wool racists, find themselves having to deal with gays and lesbians in certain settings of business.   
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Brittain33
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« Reply #686 on: October 30, 2013, 11:17:50 AM »

Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

The conservatives in surrounding counties, even if they are dyed-in-the-wool racists, find themselves having to deal with gays and lesbians in certain settings of business.   

Look at the results on NC's DOMA amendment in Charlotte... lots of Romney/No precincts. Much of Atlanta's suburbs may act and vote like Dallas suburbs, but other areas will vote like Charlotte's.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #687 on: November 03, 2013, 06:50:57 AM »

SC - The Winthrop Poll:

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Should be valid – 38.5 percent
Should not be valid – 52.2 percent

The Winthrop Poll interviewed 887 adults in South Carolina from Oct. 19 to 27. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percent.

http://www.thestate.com/2013/11/03/3074150/exclusive-majority-oppose-but.html

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politicallefty
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« Reply #688 on: November 03, 2013, 07:53:17 AM »

If that poll is accurate, that's really not bad at all for a state like South Carolina.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #689 on: November 03, 2013, 03:35:59 PM »

Updating for the latest SC poll done by Winthrop.  They're usually fairly reliable, tho it would be nice to see crosstabs on the results.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #690 on: November 05, 2013, 06:50:51 PM »


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http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/clout/chi-gay-marriage-illinois-20131105,0,7759837.story



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #691 on: November 05, 2013, 07:17:52 PM »

Since gay marriage in Illinois is inevitable at this point...




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #692 on: November 05, 2013, 07:46:21 PM »

Here's how I predict SSM laws will go:


Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon will likely be next. Approval over 50% implies that legislation gets passed if the relevant legislatures bring it up.

But that is as far as it goes until at least 2015. As things are, same-sex marriage will take more time. 

Several states (notably WI, MI, and VA) will legalize same-sex marriage as soon as Democrats win majorities in both Houses of the state legislature. Such will absolutely not happen until 2015, at the least. The Republican Party will continue to pay off the Fundamentalists with suppression of gay rights because those Fundamentalists don't give a d@mn about economics. Obviously. Michigan will have to dump Rick Snyder as Governor and Wisconsin will have to dump Scott Walker. Ohio and Pennsylvania are more iffy -- because support for same-sex marriage is still under 50% even if it is positive.

Count on Republicans to exploit gutter fears about same-sex marriage in 2014. Republicans will have the predictable ads that associate same-sex marriage with all sorts of horrors.

Arizona, Florida, Indiana, and Montana are more problematic. The trend has been toward support for the legalization of same-sex marriage.  The Republican Party is stronger in three of the states, but in Florida support is still underwater. That can change quickly.

New Mexico is an oddity. The state law has no ban on same-sex marriage, but no permission. New Mexico would have to enact a ban on same-sex marriage to stop it, which remains possible. Short of that New Mexico is ambiguous because support for same-sex marriage is still underwater.   

Some states are going to enact same-sex marriage with economics as a pretext. Want jobs? Then vote for same-sex marriage.  Short of an oil boom I can't think of anything more likely to create jobs -- not tax breaks, not Right to Work (for starvation wages), and not lax environmental laws.     

My estimates based on polling:




Predicted date of same-sex marriage legalization:

white -- already legal
light blue -- 2013 or 2014 -- 20% saturation     
light-medium blue 2015 or 2016 if things go right -- 40% saturation
blue 2017 or 2018 -- 60% saturation
2019 or 2020 -- 80% saturation

New Mexico has an ambiguous law

ambiguous law -- yellow


Others? All bets are off, and and same-sex marriage is more likely to be established through some court ruling. Heck, Utah goes for same-sex marriage as soon as the Mormon hierarchy so says -- but probably not before then.


40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)Here's my prediction
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #693 on: November 12, 2013, 08:39:38 PM »



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #694 on: November 12, 2013, 08:42:04 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2013, 12:17:27 AM by True Federalist »

Since this is the sort of informative, but not posted in every day topic that should be stickied, I've stickied it.  If you think there is some other thread that meets that standard, PM me and I'll consider the request.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #695 on: November 13, 2013, 12:16:31 AM »



206: Voted for Romney and SSM not legal
199: Voted for Obama and SSM legal
133: Voted for Obama, but SSM not legal
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #696 on: November 13, 2013, 12:18:37 AM »

I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?
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barfbag
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« Reply #697 on: November 13, 2013, 12:23:16 AM »

Most battleground states are green. In fact all the green states are close ones.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #698 on: November 13, 2013, 12:23:46 AM »

I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Most likely, it'll be the first state to have a democratic legislature and a democratic governor (besides the conservative democrats in KY and WV) necessary for legalizing it. Arizona is a good guess. Almost all Romney states are republican-dominated at the state level, so it'll be awhile for it to happen (unless the courts force them to at some point).
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #699 on: November 13, 2013, 01:45:59 AM »

I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Wyoming.
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