Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[morgieb]

I'm gonna say Montana. The Democrats have a monopoly on the governorship and social ideals in the West aren't nearly as nutty as they are down south.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Montana could do civil unions quickly if it wishes, but SSM requires repealing a state constitutional amendment.  There are only five states left that do not have constitutional provisions prohibiting state recognition of SSM, that do not have statewide recognition of it: Indiana, New Mexico Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  Alaska, Arizona, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, and Tennessee are the states whose constitutions ban recognizing SSM, but which could enact civil unions, but have not yet done so.

[pbrower2a]

I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Indiana -- for economic reasons.

[Tender Branson]

FL (Gravis Marketing):

45-43 legal

http://gravismarketingblog.com/2013/11/14/gravis-marketing-florida-governor-poll

[Person Man]

I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Wyoming.

I don't think so.
Wyoming has been pushing to the right on social issues though I still think they are few years away from being some sort of faux bible belt state like the Dakotas or Nebraska. They get a lot of Southerners to work the mines and wells and the libertarian Republicans that make up the plurality of voters in this state might be melding into modern right-wing orthodoxy.  John Barraso is a good example of this. He used to be a moderate libertarian conservative and now he is a borderline TEA bagger.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Florida goes slightly positive, and in a poll involving a right-wing magazine (Human Events):

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Gass3268]

Indiana supprots SSM by 2% and opposes a popossed ban by 20%.

http://blogs.wishtv.com/2013/11/14/wish-tvball-state-hoosier-survey-shows-growing-opposition-to-marriage-amendment/

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

That map looks like something out of a sci-fi novel. I guess unless you live in the underdeveloped and uncultured parts of America that cling to "guns and religion", it is now verboten to express homophobic sentiments.

[pbrower2a]

That map looks like something out of a sci-fi novel. I guess unless you live in the underdeveloped and uncultured parts of America that cling to "guns and religion", it is now verboten to express homophobic sentiments.

Indiana is very conservative, and you can trust that people cling to 'guns and religion'.

People are catching on to the idea that homosexuality is no threat to people who have no predisposition to homosexuality.

If Republicans try to use homosexuality as a wedge issue it will backfire worse than a car whose catalytic converter has been removed. 

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

That map looks like something out of a sci-fi novel. I guess unless you live in the underdeveloped and uncultured parts of America that cling to "guns and religion", it is now verboten to express homophobic sentiments.

Indiana is very conservative, and you can trust that people cling to 'guns and religion'.

People are catching on to the idea that homosexuality is no threat to people who have no predisposition to homosexuality.

If Republicans try to use homosexuality as a wedge issue it will backfire worse than a car whose catalytic converter has been removed. 

Indianapolis and its suburbs might cling to religion but its denizens certainly don't cling to guns and they want to maintain a veneer of respectability. My sense is that upscale Republicans want nothing to do with this issue because its increasingly beyond the pale to be against gay rights in certain circles.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

By 2016 we could see direct initiatives legalize gay marriage in AZ, OR, NV, CO, MT, MI, OH, and FL.

[pbrower2a]

The Dakotas and Nebraska could be interesting.

[TDAS04]

I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

I would guess Arizona, Montana, or Alaska.

[Badger]

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

By 2016 we could see direct initiatives legalize gay marriage in AZ, OR, NV, CO, MT, MI, OH, and FL.

OH will likely have one in 2014

[JacobNC]

Georgia more supportive of gay marriage than North Carolina?  Georgia supportive of gay marriage AT ALL?  Hard to believe.

[pbrower2a]

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

By 2016 we could see direct initiatives legalize gay marriage in AZ, OR, NV, CO, MT, MI, OH, and FL.

OH will likely have one in 2014

In 2004 the Republicans put a "gay marriage" proposition on the ballot to bring out the fundamentalist voters, and such may have well served R politicians. In 2014 such could backfire.

[pbrower2a]

Mississippi (PPP)

Mississippi will not be among the next batch of states to legalize same-sex marriage. The most likely way in which same-sex marriage becomes lawful in Mississippi is a Supreme Court ruling analogous to Loving v. Virginia (the ruling that legalized interracial marriage in states in which it was still unlawful).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mississippi-miscellany.html#more

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
[

[Maxwell]

Civil Unions are actually narrowly positive in Mississippi, so there's hope for movement in the right direction.

[TDAS04]

According to that Mississippi poll, voters aged 18-29 are only at 21% support for same-sex marriage, but those 30-45 are much more supportive at 39%.  Interesting.

[ElectionsGuy]

According to that Mississippi poll, voters aged 18-29 are only at 21% support for same-sex marriage, but those 30-45 are much more supportive at 39%.  Interesting.

That's really weird, it should be the opposite.

[TDAS04]

According to that Mississippi poll, voters aged 18-29 are only at 21% support for same-sex marriage, but those 30-45 are much more supportive at 39%.  Interesting.

That's really weird, it should be the opposite.

Actually, as I look more closely, both age groups are at 57% opposed.  Those under 30 are just more "unsure" (21%) than everyone else. 

[Alcon]

According to that Mississippi poll, voters aged 18-29 are only at 21% support for same-sex marriage, but those 30-45 are much more supportive at 39%.  Interesting.

That's really weird, it should be the opposite.

The entire sample of voters 18-45 is 30% of n=502, so 18-29 and 30-45 combined are only 151 people.  That means that the sample of 18-29 is probably around n=50 at most, for a gigantic Margin of Error of +/-14%.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

53-38 support in Colorado

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)