Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[pbrower2a]

-Colorado legalized civil unions earlier this year but voters in the state are ready to take the next step and make gay marriage legal too. 53% think it should be allowed to just 39% that think it should continue to be illegal. Among voters under the age of 45 it's a 60/32 spread in support of legalizing it. 80% of voters in the state at least support civil unions, compared to only 18% who think there shouldn't be any legal recognition at all for same sex couples. Even with Republicans there's 66% support for civil unions.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/colorado-miscellany.html#more

[Mr. Illini]

Am I the only one who is a bit puzzled by the support in Georgia?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Am I the only one who is a bit puzzled by the support in Georgia?

Atlanta (the city, not the suburbs) has a considerable LGBT community with about 1 in 8 Atlantans identifying as LGBT.  Between that and that African Americans in general appear to be rapidly abandoning their opposition to gay marriage and embracing their fellow Democrats, its not too surprising, tho I suspect the most recent poll is likely an outlier.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Update.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updating for the Ohio poll in the previous post:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[PJ]

What happened to Ohio?

[angus]

What happened to Ohio?

Ernest changed it to conform to the original color code in the legend below the map.

The link provided shows a growing acceptance of same-sex marriage, and that continues.  In 2004, they were 38% in support.  Now it's 47% in support.  Most those polls report an error of a few percent, which could explain the slight difference in the last two polls (48% earlier this year, now 47%), but overall it's about what you'd expect given the trend in Ohio.

As for the color change, there was a slight support earlier this year, now there's slight opposition.  Actually, reading that as noise, you could call it a tie, but I think Ernest reserves yellow for reported ties, not statistical ones.  It's probably best that he sticks to the original color scheme, otherwise it becomes conjectural.  Don't read too much into the small fluctuations.  These polls really aren't all that scientific, and a five percent difference is not unusual.

[IceSpear]

Wouldn't it make more sense to put these initiatives on the ballot on 2016, when there's higher turnout among young voters and presumably the issue will have moved even further in the pro-gay marriage direction by then? I could definitely see anti-gay marriage forces pulling off upsets in 2014 which could blunt momentum.

[pbrower2a]

UTAH

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http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/57291925-78/marriage-utah-laws-shelby.html.csp

Who'd a thunk it? It's not April Fool's day.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[Holmes]

You'll probably be reverting that back to dark red within hours of a few days though, tbh.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll

So Ohians oppose SSM 48-47, but would vote to allow it 52-38?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll

So Ohians oppose SSM 48-47, but would vote to allow it 52-38?

That news release did not indicate the order in which questions were asked.  If that second question was asked first, some of the respondents likely were not thinking about SSM when they gave their answer.  There's also the possibility that some of the SSM opposition comes from concerns that churches and other institutions would be forced to participate in gay marriages even in they don't want to.

[pbrower2a]

You'll probably be reverting that back to dark red within hours of a few days though, tbh.

Reverting to dark red? Utah was never polled. Technically it was gray.

I make no distinctions in a state in which SSM has been legalized either through legislative process, referendum, or a court decision. If it is legal it is legal. Of course if specific legislation adjudged Constitutional should be enacted before the state is polled, then Utah goes back to gray. It's all nit-picking for now.



 

[Nichlemn]

What do people think will be the last Kerry state to get SSM? Based on popular support it would appear to be PA. But the makeups of the legislature and judges have a significant impact. For instance, Corbett is a lot more likely to lose re-election than the other Kerry state R governors, and a D Governor would presumably help a lot, but maybe the other factors would outweigh this.

[ElectionsGuy]

What do people think will be the last Kerry state to get SSM? Based on popular support it would appear to be PA. But the makeups of the legislature and judges have a significant impact. For instance, Corbett is a lot more likely to lose re-election than the other Kerry state R governors, and a D Governor would presumably help a lot, but maybe the other factors would outweigh this.

4 Kerry states haven't legalized, and those are Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Oregon already looks like it has a potential ballot measure next year (which I assume will pass if put up). The other 3 states all have republican governors and legislatures, so those will be difficult. But gun to my head: Wisconsin. Just because Walker is the likeliest of those governors to win re-election. Although the republicans here have a weak majority in the Senate. In order from most likely to least likely.

1. Oregon
2. Pennsylvania
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin

[Gass3268]

What do people think will be the last Kerry state to get SSM? Based on popular support it would appear to be PA. But the makeups of the legislature and judges have a significant impact. For instance, Corbett is a lot more likely to lose re-election than the other Kerry state R governors, and a D Governor would presumably help a lot, but maybe the other factors would outweigh this.

4 Kerry states haven't legalized, and those are Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Oregon already looks like it has a potential ballot measure next year (which I assume will pass if put up). The other 3 states all have republican governors and legislatures, so those will be difficult. But gun to my head: Wisconsin. Just because Walker is the likeliest of those governors to win re-election. Although the republicans here have a weak majority in the Senate. In order from most likely to least likely.

1. Oregon
2. Pennsylvania
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin

Michigan has a really easy ballot initiative process, I'd move that to number 2.   

[pbrower2a]

earliest -- Oregon. Nothing in the way.

Republicans have right-wing governors and dominant state legislatures in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  The question is either

(1) when those go down, or
(2) if the Republicans (I think rashly) offer a 'gay-marriage' initiative to get right-wing voters out to vote. Such would backfire in any of the three states.

Virginia probably recognizes SSM before Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Florida, Indiana, and Ohio are really in the category with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

[LeBron]

We went for Obama and Sherrod Brown, one of the most liberal, pro-marriage equality Senators, twice, yet a majority of Ohioans can't even their social justice changes in tact? Come on Ohio! It could be interesting to see what Kasich's approval will be going into November to see which way this amendment could go. I just wouldn't see the state voting for this amendment while re-electing Kasich or voting against the amendment while voting in FitzGerald. It will be both or neither.

I personally will be voting for the amendment, but I won't necessarily be thrilled about it. I can't emphasize enough how there needs to be a separation of church and state when it comes to marriage, yet here Kilroy comes giving churches the power to decide whether they marry same-sex couples in the state or not. She obviously did it in the best interest of having a better chance of passing, but it's still freedom restricting and gives into the Repubs. in the state.

[pbrower2a]

Eventually SSM will be seen as good for business. It is telling that in neighboring Indiana both Eli Lilly (the huge pharmaceutical company) and Cummins Diesel (diesel engine manufacturer)  both endorse a marriage-equity bill.

Right-wing Republicans still have the Religious Right to pay off for votes that aided the consolidation of right-wing legislatures, which explains why SSM is not going to pass in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.

[Deus Naturae]

We went for Obama and Sherrod Brown, one of the most liberal, pro-marriage equality Senators, twice, yet a majority of Ohioans can't even their social justice changes in tact? Come on Ohio! It could be interesting to see what Kasich's approval will be going into November to see which way this amendment could go. I just wouldn't see the state voting for this amendment while re-electing Kasich or voting against the amendment while voting in FitzGerald. It will be both or neither.

I personally will be voting for the amendment, but I won't necessarily be thrilled about it. I can't emphasize enough how there needs to be a separation of church and state when it comes to marriage, yet here Kilroy comes giving churches the power to decide whether they marry same-sex couples in the state or not. She obviously did it in the best interest of having a better chance of passing, but it's still freedom restricting and gives into the Repubs. in the state.

I don't really see how it's freedom restricting. Churches should have freedom of association and all that. I mean, is there any state where churches are required to perform same-sex marriages?

[pbrower2a]

We went for Obama and Sherrod Brown, one of the most liberal, pro-marriage equality Senators, twice, yet a majority of Ohioans can't even their social justice changes in tact? Come on Ohio! It could be interesting to see what Kasich's approval will be going into November to see which way this amendment could go. I just wouldn't see the state voting for this amendment while re-electing Kasich or voting against the amendment while voting in FitzGerald. It will be both or neither.

I personally will be voting for the amendment, but I won't necessarily be thrilled about it. I can't emphasize enough how there needs to be a separation of church and state when it comes to marriage, yet here Kilroy comes giving churches the power to decide whether they marry same-sex couples in the state or not. She obviously did it in the best interest of having a better chance of passing, but it's still freedom restricting and gives into the Repubs. in the state.

I don't really see how it's freedom restricting. Churches should have freedom of association and all that. I mean, is there any state where churches are required to perform same-sex marriages?

I know of a preacher who refuses to marry any couple who has been cohabitating within a year. There are surely churches in which the preacher invariably refuses to solemnize an interracial marriage.

County judges or justices-of-the-peace may be obliged... but that is part of the job. 

[pbrower2a]

Ohio (PPP):

Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?

Strongly support.............................................. 28%
Somewhat support.......................................... 19% =====> 47%

Somewhat oppose .......................................... 12%
Strongly oppose.............................................. 36% =====> 48%

Q6 Thinking again about the November 2014 election, a proposal to amend the Ohio Constitution may appear on the ballot. This constitutional amendment would allow two consenting adults to be married, so long as they are not nearer of kin than second cousins, are not currently married to someone, and no religious institutions will be required to perform or recognize a marriage. If the election were held today, would you vote in favor of this amendment to the Ohio Constitution, or would you vote against it?

Strongly for ..................................................... 34%
Not so strongly for........................................... 18% =====> 52%

Strongly against .............................................. 33%
Not so strongly against ................................... 5%  =====> 38%

https://freedomohio.com/poll

So Ohians oppose SSM 48-47, but would vote to allow it 52-38?

They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it. It is law and not public opinion that determines whether SSM is legal. An initiative that would legalize SSM  would legalize the marriage of two men or two women.  Plenty of behavior is lawful that many people dislike -- let us say interracial marriage. 

I'm going for support of a law trumping 'like' or 'dislike'. One can be for SSM in principle but not like the idea of one's son marrying a man or one's daughter marrying a woman.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSN

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

As a rule I do not predict the outcome of trials or court decisions because courts can act capriciously. With that caveat

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/25/gay-marriage-state-courts_n_4501577.html

[Alcon]

They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it.

That hypothesis doesn't make much sense, considering the first question asks if they want same-sex marriage to be allowed, not whether they approve of same-sex marriage.

There is considerable research indicating that the "real" numbers on same-sex marriage come only after you re-assign to the "No" column people who give inconsistent answers or indicate personal discomfort/theological opposition to same-sex marriage.  And that applies to the straight-up "do you support same-sex marriage rights?" question.  The second question in this Ohio poll is about as vague and feel-good as they come.  There's absolutely no reason to believe it's more accurate than the first question, based on either wording or past history with similar poll language.

I would peg same-sex marriage for about -5 points in Ohio based on those numbers...which isn't bad at all.  The +14 number is pretty ridiculous to accept, though.