Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it.

That hypothesis doesn't make much sense, considering the first question asks if they want same-sex marriage to be allowed, not whether they approve of same-sex marriage.

There is considerable research indicating that the "real" numbers on same-sex marriage come only after you re-assign to the "No" column people who give inconsistent answers or indicate personal discomfort/theological opposition to same-sex marriage.  And that applies to the straight-up "do you support same-sex marriage rights?" question.  The second question in this Ohio poll is about as vague and feel-good as they come.  There's absolutely no reason to believe it's more accurate than the first question, based on either wording or past history with similar poll language.

I would peg same-sex marriage for about -5 points in Ohio based on those numbers...which isn't bad at all.  The +14 number is pretty ridiculous to accept, though.

Also as I pointed out earlier, while the press release mentions the 47-48 result first, there is nothing to indicate it was asked before the question that gave the 52-38 result. If that second question was asked first, some of the respondents likely were not thinking about SSM when they gave their answer.  Indeed, thinking about again, that really is the only way to explain such disparate numbers on the two questions.  Some people who answered that question were thinking only in terms of its effects upon opposite-sex marriage, since they were thinking that is the only true form of marriage.

[Alcon]

They might not like SSM, but they would be willing to vote to legalize it.

That hypothesis doesn't make much sense, considering the first question asks if they want same-sex marriage to be allowed, not whether they approve of same-sex marriage.

There is considerable research indicating that the "real" numbers on same-sex marriage come only after you re-assign to the "No" column people who give inconsistent answers or indicate personal discomfort/theological opposition to same-sex marriage.  And that applies to the straight-up "do you support same-sex marriage rights?" question.  The second question in this Ohio poll is about as vague and feel-good as they come.  There's absolutely no reason to believe it's more accurate than the first question, based on either wording or past history with similar poll language.

I would peg same-sex marriage for about -5 points in Ohio based on those numbers...which isn't bad at all.  The +14 number is pretty ridiculous to accept, though.

Also as I pointed out earlier, while the press release mentions the 47-48 result first, there is nothing to indicate it was asked before the question that gave the 52-38 result. If that second question was asked first, some of the respondents likely were not thinking about SSM when they gave their answer.  Indeed, thinking about again, that really is the only way to explain such disparate numbers on the two questions.  Some people who answered that question were thinking only in terms of its effects upon opposite-sex marriage, since they were thinking that is the only true form of marriage.

https://freedomohio.com/docs/polling-details.pdf

Unless I systematically misunderstand how PPP reports their results, I'm quite sure this is what they did:

1. Asked Q5 ("support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to get married?")

2. Asked Q6 ("support or oppose a constitutional amendment [etc. etc.]?")

3. Of those who opposed the constitutional amendment to allow same-sex marriage, they asked Q7, which strengthens the Q6 language about religious exemptions.

It's hard for me to believe that many people didn't pick up the context clue, but even if only 1-in-4 didn't, that could make for a big difference.  Otherwise, it's possible that some people support removing the constitutional amendment, and didn't understand that it would result in same-sex marriage's immediate legality.  I think straining interpretation here is unnecessary, though: we have seen Q5 a million times, and we already know it generally overpolls, as I described above.  If Q6 is polling better than Q5, and we know Q5 overpolls, I don't see much use in thinking too hard about Q6.

It looks like, in polls that ask both legality and on a specific referendum, the "legal" margin is usually 2-5 percentage points better than the specific referendum ask, which in turn tends to be 2-5 percentage points better than the real referendum result.  If a few more polls show a "legal" average around -1, it's pretty certain that Ohio would fail a referendum by about 5-10 points (maybe more, considering some voters are probably more wary of amendments than referenda.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yeah, the ordering issue is certainly not a factor.  Given the wording of the proposed referendum and the results from Q7,  I suppose that some of those opposed to SSM, but who think it will be happening despite their opposition, favor the proposed referendum as a means of securing the ability of their church to not perform SSM.  That would make a certain degree of sense.  In that case Q6 isn't measuring SSM support and thus the much higher level of support in Q6 is not contradicting the statistical tie in Q5.

[pbrower2a]

Utah -- SSM suspended during an appeal. Back to gray. 

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSN

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


[/quote]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Internet poll of Utah done on 2 January via Google consumer surveys:
http://www.washingtonblade.com/2014/01/08/support-marriage-equality-utah-record-high/

Same sex marriage legal 41.4%
Civil unions legal but not SSM 24.2%
No civil unions or SSM 31.2%
Other response 3.2%

It is an internet poll, so it probably overstates support by a few percent.  But it is a poll and we have nothing better from Utah.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

By the way, I just noticed that our legend has been saying that green represents support for Social Security Numbers rather than Same-Sex Marriages.  Fixed.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Shoutout to Indiana!

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Utahns now evenly split on gay marriage

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/oklahoma-ban-on-same-sex-marriages-is-unconstitutional-judge

It could be that only certain parts of the ban are unconstitutional. Don't white out Oklahoma -- yet.

[RedSLC]

Utahns now evenly split on gay marriage

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

As stated in that poll, some of the support might just be from people who oppose SSM, but don't think that the court's decision should be challenged (as the question is phrased "should SSM get marriage licenses?", not "do you support SSM?"

Still, roughly two years after the last poll, this seems promising. At this point, I honestly think that the majority of Utahns under 30 support SSM (Much like Georgia).

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

A new Indiana poll (conducted for Republicans) came out today showing a majority in favor of the anti-gay amendment, but like most polls out of Indiana it's unreliable because it completely left out Bloomington and has heavy bias caused to calling landlines (80%) over cell phones (20%).  One user in the comments section details the flaws well.

Take it as you will, but I'd keep Indiana green at this point.

[pbrower2a]

A new Indiana poll (conducted for Republicans) came out today showing a majority in favor of the anti-gay amendment, but like most polls out of Indiana it's unreliable because it completely left out Bloomington and has heavy bias caused to calling landlines (80%) over cell phones (20%).  One user in the comments section details the flaws well.

Take it as you will, but I'd keep Indiana green at this point.

Does it also miss Lafayette?

Polls intended to serve a partisan entity or a special interest aren't worth consideration except for explaining why they must be rejected.

[ElectionsGuy]

A new Indiana poll (conducted for Republicans) came out today showing a majority in favor of the anti-gay amendment, but like most polls out of Indiana it's unreliable because it completely left out Bloomington and has heavy bias caused to calling landlines (80%) over cell phones (20%).  One user in the comments section details the flaws well.

Take it as you will, but I'd keep Indiana green at this point.

That would obviously favor more rural, older people, thus favoring the anti-ssm side. So yes, not accurate.

[Tender Branson]

A new Deseret News/Dan Jones poll shows UT is still strongly against SSM:





http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865594458/Poll-Majority-of-Utahns-against-same-sex-marriage-and-say-states-have-the-right-to-decide.html

[IceSpear]

That one looks a lot more believable than the other one.

But it's very interesting despite being overwhelmingly against SSM, it's a tie on whether or not they think SSM from other states should be recognized there. That could end up being a very easy way to backdoor legalize SSM nationwide. Ex: "Utah doesn't have to perform it, but must recognize". Two guys or gals go out to California, get married, come back, and then they're married in Utah as well.

[eric82oslo]

That one looks a lot more believable than the other one.

But it's very interesting despite being overwhelmingly against SSM, it's a tie on whether or not they think SSM from other states should be recognized there. That could end up being a very easy way to backdoor legalize SSM nationwide. Ex: "Utah doesn't have to perform it, but must recognize". Two guys or gals go out to California, get married, come back, and then they're married in Utah as well.

Good point. Didn't think of that option before.

[pbrower2a]

Going with the Deseret poll on whether SSM should be done in Utah. It is mainstream media. It's about even for SSM performed elsewhere.

Now for Florida (PPP):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No change in Florida.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

(Edit: Changed Utah from blue to red)

[Miles]

Fox News: For/Against tied at 47% nationally.

[ZonedOut]

Pennsylvania now supports gay marriage 56-39, so still green on the map.
(bctv.org/special_reports/government/franklin-marshall-college-poll/article_7797b1e4-8ab8-11e3-b909-001a4bcf887a.html)
Sorry I guess I can't post full links yet.

Big news is that via PPP's twitter, a plurality of Alaska voters now support gay marriage
although numbers won't be out until later in the week.

[pbrower2a]

Nebraska and the Dakotas should be interesting.

[free my dawg]

Alaska supports gay marriage now, 47-46.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

(Edit: Added key, corrected color — TF)

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20140207/NEWS01/302070077/-1/7daysarchives/Same-sex-marriage-Bluegrass-poll-show-Kentuckians-views

The trend is clear.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

added this one to the map:

Pennsylvania now supports gay marriage 56-39, so still green on the map.
(bctv.org/special_reports/government/franklin-marshall-college-poll/article_7797b1e4-8ab8-11e3-b909-001a4bcf887a.html)
Sorry I guess I can't post full links yet.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.9% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm not really certain we should include the Franklin & Marshall polls.  College polls tend to be somewhat problematic and compared to PPP's polls of the state over the years, F&M has pretty consistently shown tripleplus greater support for SSM in Pennsylvania than PPP.  I suppose it feels good to go with a darker shade of green, but I wouldn't consider it accurate.  F&M has not only shown higher support than PPP but also higher than two other college pollsters, Quinnipac and Muhlenberg, that have polled the commonwealth on this issue, tho not as frequently as PPP and F&M have.  Based on past results, if PPP were to do a poll today in Pennsylvania, I'd expect the result to be a minimal plurality (of around 47-45) in favor of SSM. and not the +17 margin F&M is finding.

[ZonedOut]

If we're going to start cherry-picking polls based on our own opinions  then what's the point of this thread?  Sure, to look at the map I think that most people would say that the Georgia result is ridiculous, and personally I think that AZ should only be yellow or the very light green color.  However, a reputable poll found otherwise and so the map was changed.  If another poll finds differently then we can change it again (well somebody else can - I have no clue how to do it).