Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:53:54 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  U.S. General Discussion (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Chancellor Tanterterg)
  Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 30 31 32 33 34 [35] 36 37 38 39 40 ... 51
Author Topic: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws  (Read 188845 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #850 on: March 26, 2014, 04:39:11 PM »

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School.

If Wis voted today on continuing its constitutional ban on same sex marriage, 36% would keep ban, 59% would repeal.

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll

"How would people vote?" looks like a good proxy for approval. Should there be an initiative/referendum on the issue in Wisconsin in November, SSM wins -- big. 



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #851 on: March 27, 2014, 07:16:28 PM »

The case seems settled in New Mexico:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/new-mexico-miscellany.html

A referendum against SSM would probably fail in New Mexico.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


[/quote]
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #852 on: March 28, 2014, 01:43:42 PM »

Feds OK Gay Marriages in Mich.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

March 28, 2014 11:34 AM

Governor Rick Snyder says that it's a marriage but it isn't really a marriage. There has never been a precedent for 'first-class marriages' and 'second-class marriages'. The Justice Department says that he is wrong.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2014/03/28/feds-ok-gay-marriages-in-mich.html#comments

I interpret this to mean that same-sex marriages made in the shortly-open window of opportunity are valid and equal even if subsequent SSM in Michigan is not authorized by legislation or a ruling of a court. I take the narrowest possible interpretation in case law. 
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #853 on: March 28, 2014, 05:11:16 PM »

Feds OK Gay Marriages in Mich.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

March 28, 2014 11:34 AM

Governor Rick Snyder says that it's a marriage but it isn't really a marriage. There has never been a precedent for 'first-class marriages' and 'second-class marriages'. The Justice Department says that he is wrong.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2014/03/28/feds-ok-gay-marriages-in-mich.html#comments

I interpret this to mean that same-sex marriages made in the shortly-open window of opportunity are valid and equal even if subsequent SSM in Michigan is not authorized by legislation or a ruling of a court. I take the narrowest possible interpretation in case law. 


Since US v. Windsor said that the Federal government can't apply a different standard than the States, doesn't that mean that if Michigan doesn't consider them to be currently married, then the US cannot do so either (unless they also get married in a jurisdiction that would recognize the marriage).  Kennedy was bound and determined to produce a moderate hero ruling that recognized the marriage in the case before the court while avoiding having SSM be recognized nationwide all at once, despite the damage his decision did to our federal system of cosovereignty.  Yet Holder is quite happy to ignore what Windsor had to say on State supremacy in deciding who is and isn't married when it suits him. (Yes, I realize that ultimately Holder's position is correct, but not if one follows Windsor in the convoluted way Kennedy handed down his moderate hero decision.)
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #854 on: April 10, 2014, 08:15:37 PM »

-In 2012 North Carolinians voted by a 22 point margin to ban gay marriage in the state. Now less than 2 years later voters say they oppose gay marriage by only 13 points, mirroring the kind of movement we've seen on the issue across the country. 40% say they think it should be legal to 53% who continue to think it should be illegal. Showing the direction things are headed in on the issue, 62% of young voters support it to only 33% who believe it should be illegal.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

Category change.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)


Logged
ZonedOut
Newbie
*
Posts: 11


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #855 on: April 10, 2014, 11:36:24 PM »

Louisiana: 42-53 opposed.  (The link has conflicting numbers on the opposition, I had to dig into the poll pdf itself to find the actual opposition number).

nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/04/gay_civil_unions_medical_marij.html
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #856 on: April 12, 2014, 02:12:57 PM »

Louisiana: 42-53 opposed.  (The link has conflicting numbers on the opposition, I had to dig into the poll pdf itself to find the actual opposition number).

nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/04/gay_civil_unions_medical_marij.html

Category change.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)



Logged
ZonedOut
Newbie
*
Posts: 11


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #857 on: April 17, 2014, 03:25:41 PM »

I don't know if this poll would fit the criteria for being included here, as it was conducted by the Political Science Dept of Texas Tech and not a major polling firm, but anyways...

Texas:  48-47 SUPPORT gay marriage

lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2014-04-17/tech-student-survey-shows-texans-torn-gay-marriage-not-governor
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #858 on: April 17, 2014, 03:27:20 PM »

I don't know if this poll would fit the criteria for being included here, as it was conducted by the Political Science Dept of Texas Tech and not a major polling firm, but anyways...

Texas:  48-47 SUPPORT gay marriage

lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2014-04-17/tech-student-survey-shows-texans-torn-gay-marriage-not-governor
A junky poll, but I think it really shows the tides are turning when more support gay marriage in a poll that also has Abbott leading Davis 54-25(!?!).
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #859 on: April 23, 2014, 08:11:48 AM »

I don't know if this poll would fit the criteria for being included here, as it was conducted by the Political Science Dept of Texas Tech and not a major polling firm, but anyways...

Texas:  48-47 SUPPORT gay marriage

lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2014-04-17/tech-student-survey-shows-texans-torn-gay-marriage-not-governor
A junky poll, but I think it really shows the tides are turning when more support gay marriage in a poll that also has Abbott leading Davis 54-25(!?!).

I agree... the poll is crap all over.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #860 on: April 23, 2014, 09:03:58 AM »

NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you think it should be legal or not legal for same sex couples to marry?

AR: 35-57
KY: 38-54
LA: 36-56
NC: 44-49

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #861 on: April 23, 2014, 10:48:28 AM »

NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you think it should be legal or not legal for same sex couples to marry?

AR: 35-57
KY: 38-54
LA: 36-56
NC: 44-49

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf


I don't know if this poll would fit the criteria for being included here, as it was conducted by the Political Science Dept of Texas Tech and not a major polling firm, but anyways...

Texas:  48-47 SUPPORT gay marriage

lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2014-04-17/tech-student-survey-shows-texans-torn-gay-marriage-not-governor
A junky poll, but I think it really shows the tides are turning when more support gay marriage in a poll that also has Abbott leading Davis 54-25(!?!).

I agree... the poll is crap all over.

Texas is extremely difficult to poll effectively. Because no state is a good analogue for this giant any poll involving Texas is suspect. Arizona is probably the most relevant analogue although more liberal or less fascistic, take your choice)... and Arizona seems amenable enough to gay rights.  Texas Tech is new at it, and it is in a very conservative part of Texas (take the Panhandle and the Permian Basin out of Texas and the state is basically another Florida).

With the caveat about any polling in Texas... I am accepting this one.  Opposition to gay marriage is not good for business, and business elites in Texas are more likely to concede on gay rights than on anti-union and anti-environmental policies.   

Texas is more urban than any other strong-R states except Utah and perhaps Arizona.



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #862 on: April 28, 2014, 08:59:01 AM »

Quinnipiac CO Poll: SSM support 61/33.
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #863 on: April 28, 2014, 09:15:56 AM »



For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #864 on: April 28, 2014, 02:17:39 PM »

The only decision now in Colorado is when we are going to put SSM on the ballot..
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #865 on: April 29, 2014, 04:32:40 AM »

I suspect that support for SSM correlates heavily to urbanization. The only highly-urban state in which SSM is unpopular is Utah. When the LDS hierarchy turns pro-SSM, Utah goes pro-SSM... fast!   
Logged
SUSAN CRUSHBONE
a Person
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,735
Antarctica


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #866 on: April 29, 2014, 01:54:20 PM »

When the LDS hierarchy turns pro-SSM, Utah goes pro-SSM... fast!   

*if
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #867 on: April 30, 2014, 02:57:33 PM »


When the LDS hierarchy realizes that gay rights are much less of a concession than an asset, then the LDS hierarchy will move in favor of gay and lesbian rights (including SSM) -- much as it did on race.

The Mormons had a series of ads showing attractive people from unlikely origins and remarkable careers called "And I am a Mormon!"

It would be easier for the LDS Church to accept homosexuality than  something like drug abuse or alcoholism. 

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #868 on: April 30, 2014, 03:13:25 PM »
« Edited: May 01, 2014, 09:28:12 PM by pbrower2a »

Same-Sex Marriage  (Quinnipiac, Florida)

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2036




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
Logged
Meursault
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 771
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #869 on: April 30, 2014, 06:32:45 PM »

The numbers out of Florida are impressive to me because I'd have assumed the retirees there would have acted as an anchor on the issue; I genuinely expected Upper South states like North Carolina and Tennessee to pull ahead of it in support of same-sex marriage.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #870 on: May 01, 2014, 09:08:42 PM »

The state closest to Florida in its politics is Ohio. Florida is very dissimilar to neighboring states in politics. Florida is a Southern state only in its latitude. Politically it is north of Missouri.

We are seeing the end of an era in most States in which Republicans can get political capital from bating homosexuals. 
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #871 on: May 01, 2014, 09:29:24 PM »


Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

- See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/#sthash.vjHmoY1e.dpuf




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,611


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #872 on: May 09, 2014, 03:46:53 AM »


Man, even if you look at Obama's massive underperformance in Arkansas n 2012, gay marriage has a much more extreme SSM PVI than Obama PVI.
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #873 on: May 09, 2014, 10:23:34 AM »

Oregon: 58% in favor




For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)
Logged
Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
The Obamanation
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #874 on: May 09, 2014, 07:44:49 PM »

Is SSM on the ballot in any state this fall?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 30 31 32 33 34 [35] 36 37 38 39 40 ... 51  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.118 seconds with 12 queries.