Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[ElectionsGuy]

There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

[ElectionsGuy]

206: Voted for Romney and SSM not legal
199: Voted for Obama and SSM legal
133: Voted for Obama, but SSM not legal

[ElectionsGuy]

I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Most likely, it'll be the first state to have a democratic legislature and a democratic governor (besides the conservative democrats in KY and WV) necessary for legalizing it. Arizona is a good guess. Almost all Romney states are republican-dominated at the state level, so it'll be awhile for it to happen (unless the courts force them to at some point).

[ElectionsGuy]

According to that Mississippi poll, voters aged 18-29 are only at 21% support for same-sex marriage, but those 30-45 are much more supportive at 39%.  Interesting.

That's really weird, it should be the opposite.

[ElectionsGuy]

What do people think will be the last Kerry state to get SSM? Based on popular support it would appear to be PA. But the makeups of the legislature and judges have a significant impact. For instance, Corbett is a lot more likely to lose re-election than the other Kerry state R governors, and a D Governor would presumably help a lot, but maybe the other factors would outweigh this.

4 Kerry states haven't legalized, and those are Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Oregon already looks like it has a potential ballot measure next year (which I assume will pass if put up). The other 3 states all have republican governors and legislatures, so those will be difficult. But gun to my head: Wisconsin. Just because Walker is the likeliest of those governors to win re-election. Although the republicans here have a weak majority in the Senate. In order from most likely to least likely.

1. Oregon
2. Pennsylvania
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin

[ElectionsGuy]

A new Indiana poll (conducted for Republicans) came out today showing a majority in favor of the anti-gay amendment, but like most polls out of Indiana it's unreliable because it completely left out Bloomington and has heavy bias caused to calling landlines (80%) over cell phones (20%).  One user in the comments section details the flaws well.

Take it as you will, but I'd keep Indiana green at this point.

That would obviously favor more rural, older people, thus favoring the anti-ssm side. So yes, not accurate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oregon from PPP: 54/40 support.

You'd think it would be higher, eh?

Also, lol at the 24% who said legalizing SSM would have a "negative impact" on their lives.

[ElectionsGuy]

Did Scott Walker appeal the decision on SSM in Wisconsin?

No, but J.B. Van Hollen did.