Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor John Hickenlooper’s job performance?

Approve................. 54%
Disapprove............ 24%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Udall's job performance?

Approve .................45%
Disapprove.............34%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Michael Bennet's job performance?

Approve .................44%
Disapprove.............36%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Buck?

Favorable........................................................ 25%
Unfavorable .................................................... 46%

If you could do last fall’s election for US Senate over again, would you vote for Democrat Michael Bennet or Republican Ken Buck?

Michael Bennet ............................................... 55%
Ken Buck ........................................................ 38%

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 45%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .................................................40%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry ......................31%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...................27%

If there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

Democratic candidate ..................................... 45%
Republican candidate ..................................... 40%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party?

Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 49%

Do you think prostitution should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 56%

Do you think marijuana usage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 51%
Illegal .............................................................. 38%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott McInnis?

Favorable........................................................ 14%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Tancredo?

Favorable........................................................ 30%
Unfavorable .................................................... 43%

Would you support or oppose raising the income tax in Colorado from 4.63% to 5% and the sales tax from 2.9% to 3.0% in order to increase funding for public education?

Support ........................................................... 45%
Oppose ........................................................... 47%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_0811925.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Here is a gay marriage map of recent state polling by PPP and others:

Note:

The NY polls are from Quinnipiac and Marist, both of them showed support for gay marriage above 50%.

The CT poll is from Quinnipiac.

The MD poll is from the Washington Post.

[Tender Branson]

It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, let’s contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, let’s compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.

The results of PPP contradict you. They are one of the best out there and got almost all elections right so far this cycle and also within the MoE.

You shouldn't use Gallup to prove variations in samples either, because Gallup wasn't really good in 2008 and they collected the party ID over half a year.

[Tender Branson]

It really interesting to look at the PPP opinion polls.  Since they have become the in-house pollster for the Daily Kos they have pretty consistently produced poll results more favorable to the Democrats than most other polls.

Take for example their recent poll of Colorado voters.  (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf)

First, let’s contrast the composition of their respondents with the results of the 2008 Exit poll for Colorado. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1)

 Ideology
                                        PPP          Edison
Liberal                            35 %          17 %
Moderate                       27              46
Conservative                 39              36

Second, let’s compare their partisan identification compared to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/148949/Hawaii-Democratic-Utah-Republican-State.aspx#)

                                        PPP          Gallup
Democrat                        41 %          42 %
Republican                      33              43

Looks like PPP is a R2K reprise.

The results of PPP contradict you. They are one of the best out there and got almost all elections right so far this cycle and also within the MoE.

You shouldn't use Gallup to prove variations in samples either, because Gallup wasn't really good in 2008 and they collected the party ID over half a year.

Sorry, but, the further out PPP is from elections, the more left-leaning their polls are.

Zogby has had similiar results, having weird polls far out, and becoming more rational near elections.

Methodological changes do matter.

Next, you can look at the exit polls for partisan identification (favors Republicans in Colorado) ,since you seem to dislike Gallup and be blind to PPP's faults.

No word about Rasmussen ?

Rasmussen also used to be much more Republican early on and then moderate their results closer to election day.

Also, PPP doesn't weight according to party ID, but rely on self-ID (of what the poll respondents actually say).

And because polls are just snapshots in time, who can tell what the turnout might look like right now ?

Example: The current voter registration in Colorado is something like 33% R, 32% D, 35% I.

If the election were to be held today, it could be that of the 33% Republicans only 70% turn out and of Democrats 80% and of Independents lets say 60%.

That CHANGES the composition of the sample so that there are actually MORE Democrats in there than Republicans, even though they have a slight registration advantage.

Who tells us that in Colorado it could not be the case that Democrats are more likely to participate in a phone poll or actually turn out in greater numbers than Republicans ? The Colorado GOP isn't in really good shape either. So PPP's result for this moment could be accurate.

BTW, Democrats have recently caught up to Republicans in Colorado when it comes to registration. The gap was much larger 8 years or 4 years ago and depending on how effective the registration drives are next year, I could see Democrats overtaking Republicans ahead of the 2012 elections.

[Tender Branson]

ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But there´s also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

[Tender Branson]

ROTFLMAO!

Democrats having a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado!?!

Republicans really blew last year's Governor and Senate races in Colorado.

However, they DO control the state legislature and had a pickup in the House.

It was nice to see you acknowledge that in voter registration there are more Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, which both Gallup and Edison results support, and PPP disagrees with!

Hmm.

I didn't say that Democrats have necessarily a significantly higher turnout rate than Republicans in Colorado, but that at the moment it could be this way because the Colorado GOP sucks and because of more and more minorities registering as Democrats in Colorado.

After all there were 5-6% more Democrats turning out last year.

But there´s also the margin of error in the PPP poll (which is 4.5%), so you can also say that the spread between Dems and GOP could be lower. Who knows ?

Well, lets look your assertions.

First, occasionally there are elections when Democrat turnout is higher than Republican turnout, but, those elections are rare (roughly 1 out of 10).

Second, it is true that PPP polls do have unusually high sample size MoE (due to small samples), but that would NOT explain the partisan sample composition distribution.  In the PPP poll you cited, Democrats have an 8 point advantage, whereas in the Edison and Gallup polls (as well as voter registration you cited), they have a 1 point disadvantage.  That's a 9 point spread, which is NOT explained by sample size MoE!

Third, you ignored the other point about the PPP poll being heavily laden with liberals, both compared to the Edison and Gallup polls.

Finally, to me it makes no difference the race/ethnicity of voters as a vote is a vote.  So, would you be pleased to lose two white votes to gain one "minority" vote? 

Colorado is trending Democratic according to the exit polls:

2004 exit poll: R+9
2008 exit poll: R+1
2010 exit poll: D+5/6

Besides that you don't seem to understand what I´m trying to say.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

[Tender Branson]

Interesting. I bet Delaware would support it at this point too.

PPP did a poll for the Delaware Right to Marry PAC in Feb. 2011. The results were:

48% Favor
47% Oppose

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2011/02/09/large-plurality-of-delaware-supports-marriage-equality

Nice. Time to update the map? I think Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin are going to be the next states supporting it. Hawaii might already support it too.

I don't use polls for "Pro Gay Marriage" or "Pro Man/Woman Marriage" groups in my map.

But you can help me look for other polls in states that I have not coloured so far.

[Tender Branson]

First, would you please be so good as to provide the link for your 2010 exit poll?

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#COS01p1

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=COG00p1

[Tender Branson]

3 more PPP polls about Gay Marriage out today.

Wisconsin: 39% legal, 50% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0826.pdf

Iowa: 46% legal, 45% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0826.pdf

Ohio: 33% legal, 53% illegal

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0826.pdf

Map:

[Tender Branson]

Kentucky doesn't like the gays either, but we already knew that before:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 26%
Illegal .............................................................. 62%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_08311118.pdf

[Tender Branson]

PA now in favor of gay marriage, says F&M:

CU1. The state legislature is considering several proposals related to gay marriage and civil
unions. Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow
homosexual couples to get legally married?

50% Support
42% Oppose

CU2. Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow homosexual couples to legally
form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples?

62% Support
34% Oppose

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyaug11_1.pdf

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (Rutgers):

Support Gay Marriage 52%
Oppose Gay Marriage 32%

Support Civil Union alternative 58%
Oppose Civil Union alternative 26%

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/polls/release_08-31-11.pdf

[/quote]

[Tender Branson]

PPP is out with the NC poll on gays and the state is very "special":

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 31%
Illegal .............................................................. 61%

State legislators have proposed an amendment to the North Carolina Constitution that would prohibit the recognition of marriage, civil unions, or domestic partnerships for gay and lesbian couples. If the election was held today, would you vote for or against this amendment?

Would vote for it.............................................. 30%
Would vote against it ...................................... 55%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_09071217.pdf

[Tender Branson]

PPP is out with the SC poll on gay marriage:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 21%
Illegal .............................................................. 69%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_0907.pdf

Damn, are these the worst numbers we've seen so far?

Until they poll MS or AL, probably yeah.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder what percentage a gay, liberal, muslim, black Democrat would get in WV in a 50-50 Presidential year ... ?

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

NC amendment still failing:

N.C. constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage

September 2011: 56 percent oppose / 39 percent support
February 2011: 56 percent oppose / 38 percent support
March 2009: 50 percent oppose / 43 percent support

The poll, conducted Sept. 25-29, 2011, surveyed 594 North Carolina residents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.02 percentage points. The sample is of the population in general, with numbers that include both landlines and cellular phones. The Elon University Poll does not restrict respondents by voter eligibility or likelihood of voting.

http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/093011.xhtml

[Tender Branson]

New Maryland poll:

Poll: Marylanders split on gay marriage, immigrant tuition

By John Wagner

A new poll finds Maryland voters almost evenly divided over the legalization of same-sex marriage and over allowing children of illegal immigrants to receive in-state college tuition rates — two issues that could be decided at the ballot box next year.

Meanwhile, President Obama’s job approval has “dipped considerably,” while Gov. Martin O’Malley’s rating remains “fairly solid,” and Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin appears well-positioned for re-election next year, according to the poll by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.

The poll comes as both sides gear up for another legislative fight next year over same-sex marriage, this time with O’Malley (D) planning to sponsor the bill.

The Gonzales poll found 48 percent of Marylanders who vote regularly favor a law allowing same-sex marriages, while 49 percent of that population are against allowing same-sex marriages.

There is a notable difference based on race. Fifty-one percent of white voters approve, compared to 41 percent of African-American voters. Meanwhile, 46 percent of white voters disapprove, compared to 59 percent of African Americans.

The opinion of voters could become particularly relevant if a same-sex marriage bill passes this session.

Opponents have vowed to take advantage of a provision in the state Constitution that allows citizens to petition just-passed laws to the ballot. With enough signatures, same-sex marriage would be subject to a statewide vote in November 2012.

A law passed this year allowing in-state college tuition rates for certain children of illegal immigrants has already been petitioned to the ballot.

The Gonzales poll found 47 percent of voters support the so-called Dream Act, while 51 percent are opposed.

Voters were asked whether they agree that “children of immigrants who are not in the state legally should be given the opportunity to receive Maryland in-state college tuition rates if they have graduated from a Maryland high school and their parents have filed Maryland tax returns for the past three years.”

The poll also found more voters approve of the way O’Malley is handling his job than the way Obama is handling his.

Voters in heavily Democratic Maryland are now almost evenly split on Obama, with 49 percent saying they approve of the job he is doing as president and 47 percent saying they disapprove.

That is a considerable slide since a January poll, which found 54 percent approved and 40 percent disapproved.

The poll found that 52 percent of Maryland voters approve of the job O’Malley is doing, while 40 percent disapprove — marks Gonzales said are “fairly solid.” O’Malley’s approval rating of 52 percent is higher in all but two of 11 previous Gonzales polls since the governor arrived in office in 2007.

The poll also showed that 63 percent of voters say they either will definitely vote for Cardin (D-Md.) next year or consider voting for him. More than one-third of Republicans even said they would consider voting for Cardin — “not the result a Republican hopeful for the office wants to see,” Gonzales noted.

The telephone poll of 805 registered voters who vote regularly was conducted Sept. 19 to Sept. 27. It was said to have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/poll-marylanders-split-on-gay-marriage-immigrant-tuition/2011/10/03/gIQAFmHuIL_blog.html

[Tender Branson]

Update:

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota likely to ban gay-marriage next year:

"Would you favor or oppose amending the Minnesota constitution to allow marriage only between a man and a woman?"

48% Favor
43% Oppose

http://www.startribune.com/politics/133367088.html

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/133406223.html

...

Update:

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota (SurveyUSA):

If an amendment to the Minnesota Constitution were on the ballot, that defines marriage as between one man and one woman, would you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

46% For
40% Against

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=98e06008-a002-4bda-b2dc-d5093903734a

[Tender Branson]

Mississippi (PPP):

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 13%
Illegal .............................................................. 78%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

10% Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
28% Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
60% There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship
  2% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MS_1118.pdf

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

Here's a comparable map of how the referendums have gone so far (between 1998 and 2008):

Incl. NC and MN next year (according to polls now):