Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Person Man]

I wonder how it is doing in Deleware and Illinois.

This is what I assume at this point-

red- favor gay marriage
blue- oppose gay marriage
dark blue- majority antiabortion
90% blue- a personhood amendment might have enough votes
yellow- favor gay marriage, majority antiabortion




Though what's interesting is that support for gay marriage is now more or less as prevalent as antiabortion sentiment. And though there has been uptick of this Conservative Humanist (basically Huckabee if he wasn't a closet case)  view of being pro-gay and antiabortion, its still the norm to just accept that the law is the law.

If Cook County really has real liberals in it, support for gay marriage now surpassed 270 EVs.

[Person Man]

Really want to see what a poll would show on abortion. I think that Wyoming's is being pulled to conform with the rest of the Republican base.

[Person Man]

Other notes from Ohio:

-For the first time ever PPP finds a plurality of Ohio voters in support of gay marriage- 48% favor it to 42% who are opposed. There's been a massive shift in attitudes over the last two years- in October of 2011 we found only 32% of voters supporting it and 55% against. Younger voters in particular are sparking the movement toward acceptance of same sex marriage- those under 45 favor it by a 64/28 margin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/ohioans-skeptical-about-kasich-2016-and-more.html#more

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

At this point, a majority of states' voters support gay marriage. About a third of the population lives in a state that allows gay marriage and almost a half live in a state that allows gay marriage by any other name.

[Person Man]

There's no way Georgia supports Same-Sex Marriage. It shouldn't even be close too.

If black attitudes on SSM were to change to conform to Democratic orthodoxy, then yes the South could become supportive of SSM.  However, given the racial polarization of politics down here, I don't expect any change in the law down here by the GOP dominated legislatures, so the change in the law will have to wait for the Supreme Court ruling in a few years time.

...with "interesting" results. See the thread about the young new assistant on FOX.

Three words:

Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

The conservatives in surrounding counties, even if they are dyed-in-the-wool racists, find themselves having to deal with gays and lesbians in certain settings of business.   

[Person Man]

I wonder what will be the first Romney state to legalize SSM.  Arizona?

Wyoming.

I don't think so.
Wyoming has been pushing to the right on social issues though I still think they are few years away from being some sort of faux bible belt state like the Dakotas or Nebraska. They get a lot of Southerners to work the mines and wells and the libertarian Republicans that make up the plurality of voters in this state might be melding into modern right-wing orthodoxy.  John Barraso is a good example of this. He used to be a moderate libertarian conservative and now he is a borderline TEA bagger.

[Person Man]

The only decision now in Colorado is when we are going to put SSM on the ballot..

[Person Man]

Oregon from PPP: 54/40 support.

You'd think it would be higher, eh?

Also, lol at the 24% who said legalizing SSM would have a "negative impact" on their lives.

Some of those 24% might be vain and think that they are more likely to be hit on by members of the same sex.

[Person Man]

When do you think the first state to vote for Bush twice will have SSM?

[Person Man]

Indiana -- subject to appeal, and the Attorney General says that he will appeal the ruling. Utah -- appeal failed, so it goes white.

The legal process works. I expect to see some more appeals implode. Utah was the first.

Utah should stay as it was.  The 10th Circuit placed its decision on hold pending appeal to the Supreme Court.  If the Supreme Court declines to hear the case, then not only Utah, but also Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming would go white.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.
Orange -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed unpopular
Dark blue -- same-sex marriage ban ruled void by a judge, but subject to a legal appeal and assumed popular enough to pass in a popular vote

Green -- current same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular or plurality support for legalization of SSM

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- ruby (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

Of course, it wouldn't be automatic but opponents would ultimately lose though they have started issuing SSM licenses in Boulder and Longmont.

[Person Man]

Another map, and I hope that it is for your convenience.

States in white (and DC) already have legalized same-sex marriages. Other states are coded by district:

I do not know the status of SSM in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, Guam, or the Northern Marianas.

4th circuit*
5th circuit
6th circuit
7th circuit
8th circuit
9th circuit
10th circuit*
11th circuit

*Next appeal, US Supreme court.

Colors have no political significance.

DC and all states within the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd circuit courts have legalized SSM.

I think that SCOTUS will not issue cert until the 5th or 11th upholds a gay marriage ban. If they don't, they won't.

[Person Man]

Nor would it be a good idea during a midterm. I think it could be a good thing to put on the ballot in Nevada, Colorado and Virginia in the general.

[Person Man]

Here's where YouGov most recently had Wyoming on approval and disapproval on same-sex marriage (SSM):

WY    33    50    -17

I don't know where the 53-39 poll came from. If such is the pattern, then it would seem that soon after SSM is tolerated by law, the public follows. Maybe people find that it does not hurt them.  

PPP could poll North Carolina. This could compel me to update the approval rating for SSM in at least one state.

Why does Wyoming get this reputation of being all libertarian and whatnot... like a gaggle of cowboys that don't want the government involved in anything?  They are clearly just a bunch of nasty hicks like the rest of Republamerica.  

I think there was a time where it was like that, but the energy boom of the late 2000s brought in a lot of white trash. I think as the value of Hydrocarbons decreases, that these people will move out and things may or may not turn to normal in the next few years. Though even then, I don't think they are anti-Government as they are "we don't really care about feminism or civil rights or religion for that matter, we just want to get rich and enjoy the outdoors".