Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Gass3268]

September 2012 Marquette Law School Wisconsin Poll

"Q31: Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship."

Allowed to legally marry - 48%
Civil unions - 25%
No legal recognition - 21%
Don't know - 4%
Refused - 2%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MLSP11_Toplines.pdf

[Gass3268]

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota for the "Star Tribune" shows the following:

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http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/170854241.html

If the Democrats get the legislature back, they should try to push for civil union recognition because it looks like there is nothing in the constitutional amendment that prevents that.

[Gass3268]

Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin:

Q27
Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship.
Allowed to legally marry 45%
Civil unions 29%
No legal recognition 22%
Don't know (v) 4%
Refused (v) 1%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/MLSP13_Toplines_Likely.pdf

This is the second straight poll by Marquette to have marriage equality leading!

[Gass3268]

Marquette University Poll:

Q27
Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay
couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no
legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship.
N %
Allowed to legally marry 547 44%
Civil unions 360 29%
No legal recognition 278 22%
Don't know (v) 44 4%
Refused (v) 14 1%

This has been consistant throughout all of Marquette's polling

[Gass3268]

Minnesota (PPP)

Q2   Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
Yes.................................................................. 45%
No ................................................................... 52%
Notsure.......................................................... 3%
Won't vote on the amendment........................ 0%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_1103.pdf

[Gass3268]

Where does marriage equality go next?

Logical next states:

- California (Will probably wait until after the Supreme Court rules on Prop
- Colorado
- Delaware
- Illinois (Redistricting greatly helped the Democrats here) 
- New Mexico
- Oregon
- Rhode Island 

Longshot tries:

- Florida
- Minnesota
- Nevada

[Gass3268]

Oregon (PPP):

Q21 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Oregon, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 54%
Should not....................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

Georgia (PPP):

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Georgia, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 27%
Should not....................................................... 65%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_120512.pdf

Interesting thing about the Georgia is that if you put together the people that support same-sex marriage and civil unions together you get 57% for some form of legal recognition. I see that to even be a big deal! 

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .............................................................. 24%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil    unions but not marry ....................................... 33%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ....................................... 40%
Notsure.......................................................... 3%

[Gass3268]

Oregon (PPP):

Q21 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Oregon, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 54%
Should not....................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

Georgia (PPP):

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Georgia, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 27%
Should not....................................................... 65%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_120512.pdf

Interesting thing about the Georgia is that if you put together the people that support same-sex marriage and civil unions together you get 57% for some form of legal recognition. I see that to even be a big deal! 

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .............................................................. 24%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil    unions but not marry ....................................... 33%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ....................................... 40%
Notsure.......................................................... 3%

Until you realize that nearly everyone who says "civil unions but not marriage" votes against civil unions at the ballot box.

When has Civil Unions exclusively been on the ballot box? Also isn't this a change in the numbers?

[Gass3268]

Arizona, Colorado and Michigan should put forward an initiative for 2016.

[Gass3268]

Arizona, Colorado and Michigan should put forward an initiative for 2016.

Only Colorado could conceivably pass it, though. Let's be honest.

Polls look good now at least in Michigan and there is a reason I said 2016 instead 2014. Three years ago did you think that Minnesota would have it? 

[Gass3268]

When was the last time Wisconsin was polled?  It's starting to stick out like a sore thumb.

February.  Assuming the state continues its trend from the previous polls, there's a roughly 60% chance a poll done now would still show a plurality of Wisconsinites opposed to SSM.

I've seen different numbers in Wisconsin. Marquette's polling last year before the election showed that people were in favor of SSM, but I don't think they've polled that question this year for some reason.

[Gass3268]

Montana (MSU Billings):

47% legal
43% illegal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/education/new-msub-poll-reveals-montanans-opposed-shutdown-disapprove-of-obama/article_00d85a5e-ae77-5b8d-958b-3d41052cc71e.html

[Gass3268]

Indiana supprots SSM by 2% and opposes a popossed ban by 20%.

http://blogs.wishtv.com/2013/11/14/wish-tvball-state-hoosier-survey-shows-growing-opposition-to-marriage-amendment/

[Gass3268]

What do people think will be the last Kerry state to get SSM? Based on popular support it would appear to be PA. But the makeups of the legislature and judges have a significant impact. For instance, Corbett is a lot more likely to lose re-election than the other Kerry state R governors, and a D Governor would presumably help a lot, but maybe the other factors would outweigh this.

4 Kerry states haven't legalized, and those are Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Oregon already looks like it has a potential ballot measure next year (which I assume will pass if put up). The other 3 states all have republican governors and legislatures, so those will be difficult. But gun to my head: Wisconsin. Just because Walker is the likeliest of those governors to win re-election. Although the republicans here have a weak majority in the Senate. In order from most likely to least likely.

1. Oregon
2. Pennsylvania
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin

Michigan has a really easy ballot initiative process, I'd move that to number 2.   

[Gass3268]

I'm not updating the map for any poll that was commissioned by a party or interest group, but that number is pretty low for Oregon, especially since Democrats ordered it.

I saw somewhere that is actually a decent increase from a poll from last year.