Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wyoming - No idea why Republicans haven't referred a ban here. They've controlled the state legislature for 30+ years and it would probably pass with 60%+ of the vote.

They don't need it as a wedge issue and they likely have no fear that the Wyoming Supreme Court will overturn the legislative ban.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think the Supreme Court will narrowly overturn DOMA (allow force federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where it's legal but not force recognition between states).

First off, overturning DOMA would not allow Federal recognition, it would force Federal recognition.  There's absolutely nothing preventing Congress from passing a repeal of DOMA and sending it to Obama to be signed except it doesn't want to.

Secondly, of the possible outcomes, that's not really one of them.  If the Supreme Court did that it would make the Federal government subordinate to the State governments on a particular subject.  That's not going to happen, since the trend in judicial decisions of late has been to emphasize the dual sovereignty of the Federal and State governments.  As such a decision that allows State governments to decide the issue how it wants to while denying the Federal government that option simply will not happen.  If DOMA is overturned, it will be on grounds that effectively legalize gay marriage in all fifty States as well.

I see only two possible outcomes of the DOMA case.  Either DOMA is upheld and the Federal and State governments remain free to define marriage as they wish, or DOMA is struck down and both Federal and State governments are forced to provide recognition to same-sex marriages. I think that the former is likelier than the latter and I hope I'm right.  While I favor extending government recognition to same-sex marriages, I think it should be done via the legislative rather than the judicial process.  Using the courts as a quasi-legislature is destructive of our democracy.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I was considering federal recognition as having more soft opposition compared to forcing recognition between states so I figured maybe they'd take a moderate hero route that offends the least people and do it in a way that doesn't make it a permanent decision (something like making the Medicaid expansion optional).

Except your moderate hero route ain't so moderate. You like it because a few states happen to have adopted laws on the subject that you like and you want them to be able to force the Federal government to go along with them.  But what if the situation were reversed and a few states had adopted a law you didn't like and the courts were to force the Federal government to follow that law because the States had adopted it?  Indeed, by your own moderate hero position, if the Federal government repealed DOMA on its own and wanted to extend Federal benefits to same-sex couples in a state that prohibited construing a same-sex relationship as being equivalent to marriage, it couldn't, since it would be using a different definition that the State government in question had decided.

It is because I am a true federalist that I do not want the States to be able to force the Federal government to decide what to do on this issue or any other issue, save in the case of some constitutional provision that would bind both the State and Federal governments.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Winthrop Poll had a question in their latest survey which was about same-sex divorce rather than about same-sex marriage. No questions about marriage or civil unions. 929 respondents and the result was 37.3% pro vs. 49.5% con.

Regardless of your attitudes toward same sex marriage, do you think South Carolina should or should not permit gay couples who were married in other states to have their divorce decided under the rules of South Carolina law?

Very Strongly Should: 20.5%
Somewhat Strongly Should: 16.8%

Somewhat Strongly Should Not: 11.6%
Very Strongly Should Not: 37.9%

Not Sure/ Don’t Know: 10.3%

Refused to Answer: 2.8%

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina (PPP)

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed, or not?
It should be allowed 27%
It should not ........... .62%
Not sure ................. .10%

Q11 Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

25% - Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
29% - Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
43% - There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship
4% - Not sure

So it looks like if it weren't for the fact that likely any Republican who voted for it would get primaried, civil unions would be passable in South Carolina.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's a 9 point polling margin now and it would be a minimum of 2 years before a constitutional amendment to allow civil unions could go before the voters.  Given current trends, I'd expect that margin to widen in those 2 years, so I'm not as pessimistic about the chances of its passage as you are Danny.  Not that I see any chance it would get put before the voters of this state in 2014.  It would require either a far greater polling margin and/or the Democrats miraculously regaining control of both houses of the General Assembly.  Maybe in 2020 at the earliest if the US Supreme Court hasn't decided the issue for all the States sooner.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

AZ supports gay marriage by huge margin

As long as Republicans are in control of the Arizona legislature, what matters is not overall support, but support among Republican primary voters.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Does Arizona have an Initiative system in place? That way they could bypass the legislature entirely.

Yes, but a constitutional amendment requires a ton of voters to sign the petition, 15% of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election, or a bit over 250K.  I don't see that happening anytime soon.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Most recent South Carolina poll I could find:

December 2012 (PPP)

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed or not?
It should be allowed ........................................ 27%
It should not .................................................... 62%
Not sure  10%


That 35 point margin opposed was 13 point drop from a September 2011 poll PPP did (which was 21-69 for a 48 point margin).

Support for civil unions improved from 48-51 (-3) in 2011 to 54-43 (+11)

Almost all improvement in marriage support came from Democrats, with increases among independents and Republicans being within the MoE.

Most improvement in civil union support came from Democrats, with a lesser increase among independents, while that among Republicans improved by less than the MoE in this case also.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

I added another red to deal with deeply opposed states like mine and even tho PBR didn't want to go back too far, I see no reason to think a South Carolina poll today would yield a different color than the December poll, tho it is conceivable that support is above 30% today.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Taking a look at that Kansas-poll, I'd have to say that was a civil union poll not a marriage poll, so I removed it. Added the December polls from PPP for OR (54-40) and GA (27-65), but decided not to add pre-election polls.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updating the thread map for the new polls from Tennessee and New Mexico:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

70% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.1 - 70.0%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.1 - 60.0%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 55.0% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 49.9% but positive  -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

45.0 - 49.9% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Speaking of Hawaii, what are the odds that gay marriage will be passed in that state by 2016?  The Democrats have over a 2-1 majority in the statehouse and all but one seat in the Senate.

5%.

why so low?

Hawaii only started to recognize civil unions as of the beginning of 2012.  I know that this issue seems to moving fast, but for it to go from civil unions to marriage in only four years would be rather fast.  At least Hawaii alone of those states that passed a constitutional amendment did not have the amendment directly ban same-sex marriage but only gave the Assembly authority to ban same-sex marriage if it chose to do so.

Bills to recognize same-sex marriage were introduced in the Hawaii House and Senate this year, but the only action taken this year was to refer them to committees where nothing was done about them.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the Supreme Court does the unexpected and upholds Proposition 8, when is the earliest a repeal initiative be voted on in California?

Updating the thread map for the new poll from California:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

(Note: a slight revision to the color key from last time, but it did not affect any states.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Quiet for three weeks here?

We'll probably get a flurry of polls once SCOTUS announces its decision in the DOMA case.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updating the thread map for the new polls from Montana and Ohio and the decision in the Prop 8 case:

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9%  -- medium red (50% red)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- maroon (70% red)
under 35% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updating Ernest's map with the above polls:

It was originally pbrower's map, but I modified slightly to allow better coverage of the ranges, and I'm going to do it again to add another band of values for the noes.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updated for Hawaii and Indiana

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd prefer to not go more than a year back considering how the situation is fluid:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf MO 36-52 June 2012

http://www.omaha.com/article/20121004/NEWS/710049903  NE 32-61 Oct 2012

Updated for Nebraska and Missouri above and Arkansas in the post below.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

AR was 18-75 in Oct. 2012

http://plsc.uark.edu/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

Arkansas Citizens File To Put Marriage Equality On The 2014 Ballot.  It won't pass, of course, but it's a good gesture.

...how can they look at those numbers and think that a 2014 initiative is a good idea?

They may think that it would be likelier to help bring progressive voters to the ballot box than conservative voters, which even if it goes to defeat would still be a positive for them in other races.  Personally, I think that won't be the case, but it would be a logical reason to attempt a referendum you knew was going to lose.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It looks like the South is not "evolving" yet.

Except FL and VA ...

It's not the South that is resisting evolving, it's the Bible Belt that's resisting, and most of the population of Virginia and Florida are outside the Belt.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There's also the fact that by the time civil union legislation could likely get through most state legislatures, cases based on Windsor will have already have at minimum given gays the right to form civil unions that are marriages in all but name and more than likely will have given them the name as well.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updated to include Wyoming poll.  Not going to change Ohio or Pennsylvania since their legal cases have neither completely gone thru the courts, nor in the case of Ohio allow couples to wed there, just for their marriages elsewhere be recognized.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- salmon(30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red(50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updated to include Florida poll.

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If they'd reported whole numbers it would have been 47-46 against once rounded.  Now if you want yellow to be -1 to +1, I can support that, but it is disingenuous to suggest the result is ±0 when it isn't.  Even if you round the decimal difference, -0.6 rounds to -1.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Updated to include Georgia poll. (Note, my map differs from pbrower's because we disagree on whether the Florida poll should be counted as a tie.)

For support and legality of same-sex marriage.

White -- same-sex marriage legal or has at the least been enacted. No further distinction.

Green -- same-sex marriage not legal, but more popular than unpopular

65% or higher -- deep green (90% saturation)
60.0 - 64.9%  -- dark green  (70% saturation)
55.0 - 59.9%  -- medium green (50% saturation)
50.0 - 54.6% --  light green (30% saturation)
below 50% but positive -- aqua (20% saturation)

tie -- yellow

above 45.0% but negative -- hot pink (30% saturation)
40.0 - 44.9% -- medium red (50% saturation)
35.0 - 39.9%  -- red (60% saturation)
30.0 - 34.9%  -- maroon (70% saturation)
under 30% -- deep red  (90% saturation)