Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[politicallefty]

That's very good news if true. Hopefully, that'll be enough of a lead for the No side to defeat the hate amendment.

Unrelated, but the voter ID amendment is also trailing 46-51.

[politicallefty]

Unfortunately, the Democrats in the NJ Legislature took the "principled stance" and didn't take up Christie's offer for a referendum. There may be times when it's okay to take a stance like that, but not when you can actually win. Marriage equality almost certainly would have won at the ballot box in 2012 (and quite possibly in prior years as well). If the Supreme Court does not make a 50-state ruling this year, NJ Democrats had better take up Christie's offer ASAP.

[politicallefty]

If that poll is accurate, that's really not bad at all for a state like South Carolina.

[politicallefty]

The State Registrar who would record the marriage if it were recognized and the County Clerk who refused to issue the license are the defendants in the Bostic case.  While the State Registrar is not appealing, the County Clerk is appealing the district court ruling.  That ruling was stayed by the district court pending appeal.  The 4th Circuit heard the appeal last Wednesday but hasn't issued any ruling. There is also another case, Harris, in a different district, but that case has been put on hold by the judge pending the 4th Circuit's decision in Bostic.

I'm not entirely sure how the Courts of Appeals work, but if the Fourth Circuit were to invalidate Virginia's gay marriage ban via the Bostic case, would that not extend to the entire jurisdiction of the Fourth Circuit (thus taking down the constitutional bans in NC and SC and the statutory ban in WV)?

[politicallefty]

It depends upon how far in the State appellate system the appeals go. States largely define what marriages are lawful, with the obvious limitation of Loving vs. Virginia. Of course if an appeal goes to the US Supreme Court and the Supreme Court decides that SSM is legal in one State that resists it, then SSM is probably legal in all states irrespective of statutory law in the state.

If you want to figure why Corbett decided not to appeal -- maybe he did not want an appeal to go to the US Supreme Court. Corbett may be an awful Governor, but even he knows that pushing for some lost cause in his state might 'wreck' things for the rest of the country.

The only reason I asked that question is because the Fourth Circuit and Tenth Circuit have both held oral arguments. Decisions from both of those could come at any time now. Based on what I've read, it'd be very difficult for any circuit court to constrain such a ruling to just the state in question. If the Virginia ban goes down at the Fourth Circuit, it seems like any other bans within that circuit will also be struck down (the same would apply to the Tenth Circuit or any other one for that matter).

[politicallefty]

Why are Idaho and Arkansas orange, but not Utah, Oklahoma, Texas, Michigan and Virginia?

In those five states the decision has been stayed until heard by an appellate court, so you can't get a same-sex marriage there yet.

I'm also confused. Same-sex couples have been married in Utah and Arkansas (and I think Michigan, but I'm not sure), but never in Idaho, Oklahoma, Texas, or Virginia. That doesn't explain the map.

[politicallefty]

There were some who got married before a stay was issued in some of those states, but if you try to get a new SSM in them today, you can't.

That still doesn't explain the map. Same-sex marriages were granted during brief periods in Utah, Arkansas, and Michigan (and currently Wisconsin). Idaho has never issued a marriage license to a same-sex couple, which makes it no legally different from states like Texas or Oklahoma, where bans have also been struck down in federal court. Other than Wisconsin, which has yet to reach the appellate level, none of those states are currently issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. I don't see what makes Idaho and Arkansas unique.

[politicallefty]

Is any state going to vote on legalizing marriage equality this year? I know that Oregon was going to prior to its ban being struck down. What about Ohio? I'd read that there was a push to put it on the ballot this year. I can't really find any current info on that initiative. I think it'd stand a pretty good shot at passing, though very far from a sure thing.

I'm not sure why they didn't try to put it on the ballot in Colorado. Of any state currently without marriage equality, I think Colorado would be the best bet for it passing via ballot initiative (expect perhaps Nevada, where it can't be legalized until 2016).

[politicallefty]

The Seventh Circuit has granted a stay in the Indiana case.

I feel it's also worth mentioning that the Ninth Circuit has now effectively elevated sexual orientation to heightened scrutiny. I think that kills off the Nevada gay marriage ban, which is to be heard in September. In other words, the Ninth Circuit could also be ruling on gay marriage by the end of the year.

The Fourth Circuit is also expected to make an imminent decision, and oral arguments didn't seem to favour the state. If Virginia's ban goes down at the appellate level, it'll take NC, SC, and WV with it.

[politicallefty]

There's really no way the Ninth Circuit is going to vote against marriage equality. It will almost certainly join three other circuit courts in finding a fundamental right of marriage equality. If (and when) it does strike down Nevada's ban, that case will be over. The defendant-intervenors in the case will have no standing to appeal and the state itself has dropped the appeal. Nevada's ban on gay marriage will be completely unenforceable once the Ninth Circuit rules that way, very likely becoming the 20th state with marriage equality. The Idaho case will still be subject to the normal appeals process.

(The Ninth Circuit hearing was really quite similar to the Seventh Circuit. The panel was brutal to the side defending the bans, as they should be. This was one of the best panels supporters of marriage equality could have asked for.)

[politicallefty]

Michigan/Ohio/Kentucky/Tennessee cases were grouped and are at the 4th circuit court. The hearings were done in August, decision expected in October or November.

Actually, that would be the Sixth Circuit. But yes, you're absolutely right. All four of those states are locked together. If it rules for marriage equality, it will be legal in all four of those states. If it upholds the bans, you can surely expect the Supreme Court to take it up. I'm starting to really wonder if SCOTUS will ever make a definitive ruling on the issue. Any circuit court that upholds a gay marriage ban at this point could very easily face summary reversal.

[politicallefty]

What is it with Montana?

It should be any time now that the judge has vacated the actual hearing:

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Montana's ban isn't going to be around much longer. That federal judge was appointed by President Obama and, obviously, he's bound by Ninth Circuit precedent. I wouldn't be expecting any surprises on this one. It seems more like a matter of when, not if.