Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Benj]

(and 52% of African-Americans nationwide support SSM now)

Kinda skeptical of the 52% number given the result in PG County (51-49 Yes) since the non-black vote in PG County probably looked a lot like MontCo's 65-35 Yes. (Also, PG County blacks are higher income and more educated than the overall black community nationwide, both traits that correlate strongly with gay marriage support.) That said, it's dramatic progress nonetheless, and fighting a near-tie with black voters is still great news.

[Benj]

What I would really like is to abolish the states. I don't see them as some type of 'free enablers' but as a great way to divert attention and focus for divide and conquer techniques and as loopholes for national standards. I think we would have dealt more effectively with things like healthcare years ago if we had a unicameral national legislature.

A man after my own heart.

And mine. (Nothing wrong with states per se, though. The real problem is that Congress does not have plenary power to overturn state actions.)

[Benj]

Oregon (PPP):

Q21 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Oregon, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 54%
Should not....................................................... 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf

Georgia (PPP):

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be allowed in Georgia, or not?

Should be allowed .......................................... 27%
Should not....................................................... 65%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_120512.pdf

Interesting thing about the Georgia is that if you put together the people that support same-sex marriage and civil unions together you get 57% for some form of legal recognition. I see that to even be a big deal! 

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry .............................................................. 24%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil    unions but not marry ....................................... 33%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ....................................... 40%
Notsure.......................................................... 3%

Until you realize that nearly everyone who says "civil unions but not marriage" votes against civil unions at the ballot box.

[Benj]

Yeah. It vaguely looks like a two-option civil-unions-or-nothing poll, which is interesting as such polls are rare except that we know a lot of people lie and say they support civil unions while voting against them. The second poll is probably close to an actual gay marriage support poll, although of course almost all of the undecideds would vote against gay marriage, as they always do (so 42-40 means an actual result of about 44-56, and 52-32 means an actual result of about 54-46). Still, progress.

[Benj]

What would have to happen in Michigan for the amendment to be repealed?  Would the legislature have to act, or can the people petition for it?

Michigan can have constitutional amendments by petition and could repeal their constitutional amendment without a vote of the legislature. However, they can't actually legalize same-sex marriage by referendum; the (heavily gerrymandered and Republican) legislature would need to vote to allow same-sex marriage. (I suppose they could put same-sex marriage in the state constitution, but that seems far-fetched.)

The only states that I would be comfortable putting this on the ballot (that don't already have same sex marriage) are California, Oregon, and Colorado (I would be comfortable with Hawaii, but only the legislature can enact it).

I'd be comfortable here in New Jersey, as well, and also in Nevada and New Mexico (none of which allow referendums, however).*

*Nevada apparently can vote on constitutional amendments without a legislative vote. However, for whatever reason they are attempting to repeal their constitutional amendment at the moment by going through legislative channels (which requires a vote this session (in 2013), a vote next session (in 2015) and then a referendum (in 2016). I'm not sure why they're not just directly initiating a referendum.

[Benj]

For those looking to decipher the map:

Dark blue: Same-sex marriage legal
Medium blue: Civil unions with rights equivalent to marriage available
Light blue: Unions with limited rights available
Gray: No laws on same-sex marriage or civil unions
Light red: Statute bans same-sex marriage
Medium red: Constitution bans same-sex marriage
Dark red: Constitution bans same-sex marriage and civil unions with equivalent rights

The (2) is for the complicated status of same-sex marriage in California. The (1) is apparently for same-sex marriage not yet being available in Minnesota, though the recently passed same-sex marriage statutes in Delaware and Rhode Island also have also not yet come into effect.

[Benj]

Is SUSA robocalling cell phones or only landlines? I remember then skewing old.

Doesn't look to skew that old, but only 63% among under-35s is a little suspicious. Interesting confirmation for Native American support for SSM, though; New Mexico might be the only state with a big enough Native population to get a not-totally-ridiculous sample size.

Poll seems off, I agree, but who knows. SUSA does have a reputation for being random.