Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[Oakvale]

Behaviour & Attitudes are, IIRC, usually garbage, but those figures seem to align more or less with the Red C poll.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Why is Gallagher not reported as the FF Candidate? He only quit FF when FF stopped being cool.

[ObserverIE]

Why is Gallagher not reported as the FF Candidate? He only quit FF when FF stopped being cool.

Actually, FF stopped being cool in the autumn/winter of 2008 (after a brief outpouring of relief when Ahern finally left - yes, folks, Biffo Cowen actually had a honeymoon during the spring and summer of 2008). Gallagher left at the beginning of this year/end of last year.

This issue, along with a lot of others about Gallagher's past business dealings and links with FF, has been raised over the last week. The trouble is that the same journalists and newspapers who are raking over this now have raked over so much irrelevant - but over-the-top and prurient - crap about other candidates over the last few weeks that Gallagher seems to have been "immunised" against the stories because people have switched off.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This issue, along with a lot of others about Gallagher's past business dealings and links with FF, has been raised over the last week. The trouble is that the same journalists and newspapers who are raking over this now have raked over so much irrelevant - but over-the-top and prurient - crap about other candidates over the last few weeks that Gallagher seems to have been "immunised" against the stories because people have switched off.

File under: 'well done guys!'

[ObserverIE]

This issue, along with a lot of others about Gallagher's past business dealings and links with FF, has been raised over the last week. The trouble is that the same journalists and newspapers who are raking over this now have raked over so much irrelevant - but over-the-top and prurient - crap about other candidates over the last few weeks that Gallagher seems to have been "immunised" against the stories because people have switched off.

File under: 'well done guys!'

The general standard of political journalism here is pretty awful - regurgitation of party press briefings, groupthink, and the grinding of old political axes.

I've explained earlier why I think Gallagher appeals to people: the other candidates are either potential embarrassments or, in Michael D.'s case, a de facto Government candidate, and a positive though vapid campaign coming from a candidate who seems likeable and competent and is notionally independent (and definitely independent of the current Government) will gain support from a politically-disillusioned public. Personally, I consider the man to be an empty suit but he will be largely harmless in the job.

Party support figures from the two polls, incidentally (the RedC ones are hidden deep in the bowels of the print article):

B&A: FG 37 SF 19 Lab 15 FF 15 Greens 1 Oth (inc. ULA) 13
RedC: FG 31 Lab 17 SF 16 FF 14 Oth (inc. Greens and ULA) 22

[ObserverIE]

IPSOS/MRBI for the Irish Times (changes in comparison with last poll):

Gallagher 40% (+20%)
Higgins 25% (+2%)
McGuinness 15% (-4%)
Norris 8% (-3%)
Mitchell 6% (-3%)
Davis 3% (-9%)
Scallon 3% (-)

[Хahar 🤔]

In any other country Gallagher being in first place would be inexplicable. Here it seems like the natural order is being restored.

[ObserverIE]

In any other country Gallagher being in first place would be inexplicable. Here it seems like the natural order is being restored.

Yes and No.

On the one hand, FF as currently consituted are running in the same polls at best in joint third, at worst in fifth if you count "others" as a single block. There's also the fact that the race was turned by the press into an unpleasant and personalised demolition derby, and that Gallagher was left as the last candidate standing against a candidate from one of the parties in a government of which more people disapprove than approve.

On the other hand, there is also a large segment of what might be described as "cultural" Fianna Fáilers; people who would have a regard for the party and for what it was before Haughey, Ahern and the Drumcondra Mafia got their paws on it. SF and Labour would both be hoping to pick up votes in that pool but aren't succeeding this time around.

There are also, frankly, a lot of people who did well out of the bubble and who would dearly like it back (and any country is well-stocked with lots of similarly desperate and/or short-sighted people).

Both groups seem to have gravitated to Gallagher. Returning to FF would be a different story.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ireland is a beautiful country and I love the people, but they have all the political judgment of a stick of butter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/23/david-norris-ireland-presidential-race

...

...

...

Fail.

[Insula Dei]

Haha, yes, I saw that a couple of hours ago and I couldn't believe the idiocy.

[ObserverIE]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/23/david-norris-ireland-presidential-race

...

...

...

Fail.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/oct/23/martin-mcguinness-slumps-polls-presidency

is not a whole lot better and doesn't have the excuse of being a magazine piece. But then, as I said above, with some journalists, everything must take second place to political vendettas.

[ObserverIE]

Gallagher has a Father Ted moment in the latest debate.

We will see what effect - if any - it will have.

[Oakvale]

Yeah, Gallagher did really awfully.

Gay Mitchell also threw a tantrum, not that it matters.

EDIT: Seriously though, that debate was great fun. Pity I didn't 't have any popcorn and the fact that Dublin's rapidly disappearing underwater means I couldn't go out and get any.

[ObserverIE]

Missed the first 40 minutes, including the Father Ted moment, due to my train home from work being delayed by said floods.

Summary of debate here. The debate itself may be up on RTE's player service but I'm not sure of the global availability.

[patrick1]

Jeez, I don't think Ive ever seen a debate that focused so much on the polls and the campaign itself.

Very efficient take down of Gallagher by McGuinness.

[ObserverIE]

Gallagher whinging on the radio this morning that all the hard questions last night were part of a Sinn Féin conspiracy and hinting that the businesswoman who'd asked him about the money resting in his account was also politically involved.

At which point the said businesswoman rang the radio show from her car and started asking more awkward questions.

Car crash radio.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gallagher whinging on the radio this morning that all the hard questions last night were part of a Sinn Féin conspiracy and hinting that the businesswoman who'd asked him about the money resting in his account was also politically involved.

At which point the said businesswoman rang the radio show from her car and started asking more awkward questions.

Car crash radio.

As good as Richard Keys and the 'dark forces'?

[Oakvale]

Gallagher's candidacy rapidly turning into a hilarious trainwreck is fun to watch. I hope it's not too late.

[minionofmidas]

Gallagher's candidacy rapidly turning into a hilarious trainwreck is fun to watch. I hope it's not too late.

McGuiness shall pip him on Higgins' transfers.

[patrick1]

Gallagher whinging on the radio this morning that all the hard questions last night were part of a Sinn Féin conspiracy and hinting that the businesswoman who'd asked him about the money resting in his account was also politically involved.

At which point the said businesswoman rang the radio show from her car and started asking more awkward questions.

Car crash radio.

Yeah, been following some of the play by play over at politics.ie.   Gallagher is not doing himself any favors and his tactic of going after Sinn Fein will backfire- transfers.   Gallagher is effectively being linked to the FF culture of corruption and cronyism. For a largely ceremonial office, the election of SG would really send the wrong message. I'd have to think that Michael D. will win this.

[ObserverIE]

Gallagher whinging on the radio this morning that all the hard questions last night were part of a Sinn Féin conspiracy and hinting that the businesswoman who'd asked him about the money resting in his account was also politically involved.

At which point the said businesswoman rang the radio show from her car and started asking more awkward questions.

Car crash radio.

As good as Richard Keys and the 'dark forces'?

Look at http://www.rte.ie/radio/ and select The Pat Kenny Show's edition for 25/10. Fun really starts about 25 minutes in.

Gallagher has also decided against making any more public appearances today. He has a couple of interviews on talk radio, at least one of which is prerecorded. Irish broadcasting legislation means that a moratorium on coverage of the election kicks in at noon tomorrow until the polls close at 2200UTC on Thursday (other than anodyne coverage of party leaders and candidates voting on polling day, turnout, etc.) so it looks like an effort to run down the clock.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

http://www.newstalk.ie/2011/news/higgins-tops-post-debate-newstalk-poll/

Gallagher collapses to 20%, Higgins in high thirties.

[minionofmidas]

A "listener poll"? With breakdowns for all the counties? Looks dodgy to me.

[Oakvale]

It's also taken yesterday, after a little-heard Newstalk radio debate.

Still, that might well end up being the actual results if Gallagher continues to furiously dig himself into a hole full of brown envelopes and dodgy insinuations.