Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

So who gets more transfers on a Gallagher-Higgins final ballot?

Specifically who gets McGuinness' transfers

[Insula Dei]

What was Gallagher's Father Ted moment?

[patrick1]

Gallagher's campaign had previously claimed that he never solicited money for FF.  In the early part of the debate McGuinness said that Gallagher was up to his neck in FF and their dealings and that he had spoken to a businessman who said Gallagher had personally collected a check of 5000 euro on behalf of FF.

The 2:34 mark is where he puts the foot in his mouth by collecting envelopes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTMzZAtlLt4

The fact is that I dont think this story to be particularly bad in and of itself.  However, he has been so desperate to keep the FF stink off him that he has now been caught in a series of lies. Through several of his dealings and his political activity it is clear that he was caught up in the cronyism and basic corrupt political culture.

Additionally there are questions about an 80,000 euro loan that he paid to himself from his own companies funds.  Gallagher claims this to be honest mistake.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to this map



Gallagher is stronger/est up in the North. Where McGuinness does well, Gallagher does well. This means one of two things:

McGuinness voters would naturally go for Higgins, which is why Gallagher is so strong in comparison.

or

McGuinness voters are torn between him ad Gallagher.

Whichever one is true will determine the winner

[minionofmidas]

What it means is "Labour has always been very weak up northwest".

[ObserverIE]

A "listener poll"? With breakdowns for all the counties? Looks dodgy to me.

It's a phone-in poll AFAIK. Makes the "Quantum Research" ones in the Sindo look scientific.

[ObserverIE]

According to this map



Gallagher is stronger/est up in the North. Where McGuinness does well, Gallagher does well. This means one of two things:

McGuinness voters would naturally go for Higgins, which is why Gallagher is so strong in comparison.

or

McGuinness voters are torn between him ad Gallagher.

Whichever one is true will determine the winner

Even if we were to take this seriously, Gallagher would need to be winning Louth (where he lives), Monaghan (where he was born) and Cavan (where he grew up) at a canter.

He's drawing Cavan with McGuinness, level in Louth with Higgins and Norris(!), and McGuinness is winning Monaghan.

[ObserverIE]

So who gets more transfers on a Gallagher-Higgins final ballot?

Specifically who gets McGuinness' transfers

Given that Gallagher is now trying to out-Mitchell Gay Mitchell in terms of shroud-waving and making allegations of dark Shinner plots to do him down, I think we can make an educated guess who won't get them.

[patrick1]

So who gets more transfers on a Gallagher-Higgins final ballot?

Specifically who gets McGuinness' transfers

Given that Gallagher is now trying to out-Mitchell Gay Mitchell in terms of shroud-waving and making allegations of dark Shinner plots to do him down, I think we can make an educated guess who won't get them.

Yeah, I had a long post that timed out making that point. He also clumsily made allusion to sinister forces along the border.   Like he is from there and it struck me as really tone deaf. Listening to Gallagher's Pat Kenny radio interview,  I found it a inarticulate bunch of rambling nonsense.  Chock full of contradictions and malapropisms.  IMO, Gallagher is sunk and I think Higgins wins this easily.

After these past two days you will not see the transfers. It is in Sinn Fein's interest to defeat any FF or their proxy candidates. McGuinness never had a path and still does not to win this.  However, you have to go out there and attempt to broaden your appeal and remain relevant on a 32 county level.  This will help the strategy of being the main opposition party.

Lastly, on that map.   Gallagher would have to do better where people actually live.  Like Leitrim has what 12,000 votes?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

So if Higgins is the most transfer friendly, how high can Gallagher get on the first ballot and still lose?

[ObserverIE]

So if Higgins is the most transfer friendly, how high can Gallagher get on the first ballot and still lose?

A very rough guess would be somewhere in the mid-30s, assuming that Higgins is within about 5 or 6% of him.

If I was making a wild guess now:

Gallagher 30
Higgins 26
McGuinness 16
Norris 12
Davis 7
Mitchell 5
Dana 4

(I think both Norris and Davis as independent candidates might pick up support from slippage by that part of Gallagher's vote who were looking for a non-party candidate to vote for. Mitchell might have been able to benefit if he hadn't made such a complete horse's ass of himself on Monday night.)

[ObserverIE]

So who gets more transfers on a Gallagher-Higgins final ballot?

Specifically who gets McGuinness' transfers

Given that Gallagher is now trying to out-Mitchell Gay Mitchell in terms of shroud-waving and making allegations of dark Shinner plots to do him down, I think we can make an educated guess who won't get them.

Yeah, I had a long post that timed out making that point. He also clumsily made allusion to sinister forces along the border.   Like he is from there and it struck me as really tone deaf.

Yep, and very obviously so. Father Ted with the accent of Father Dougal.

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Repeatedly laying into McGuinness for refusing to "condone" various IRA murders, until Pat Plank took pity on him and fed him the right verb, was a particular highlight. He may be street-smart, but he comes across as not being much of an abstract thinker.

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I'd hope so but there are a lot of low-information voters out there.

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22K or so.

[minionofmidas]

I, too, condemn SF for not condoning enough IRA executions of foreign (English) terrorists.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Seems to me like Higgins still has the edge then

[Oakvale]

It looks like Gallagher's toast, but never underestimate the stubbornness of the gombeen people. There's probably a not-inconsiderable portion of the electorate who feel Gallagher's being bullied.

Okay, I'm being paranoid. Getting antsy. *paces*

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

To the Irish members of this board:
Who are YOU voting for?

[Oakvale]

1. Norris
2. Higgins

So, effectively Higgins.

[Kevinstat]

How will the vote counting process go in terms of multiple eliminations happening at the same time?  Is there a deposit threshold in this election and if so what is it and does that play a role in the elimination rules?  Is there a clear standard?  I seem to recall there being some inconsistency from the Dail by-elections in 2009 and asking why certain multiple eliminations weren't done.

[ObserverIE]

How will the vote counting process go in terms of multiple eliminations happening at the same time?  Is there a deposit threshold in this election and if so what is it and does that play a role in the elimination rules?  Is there a clear standard?  I seem to recall there being some inconsistency from the Dail by-elections in 2009 and asking why certain multiple eliminations weren't done.

Candidates need to reach 1/4 of the quota (12.5%) to have €200K of their expenses refunded.

They get eliminated one by one unless there are two candidates whose combined vote is lower than the third lowest and neither of whom could not reach the reimbursement level.

Gallagher, Higgins and McGuinness should be safe on that score; Norris may still scrape it.

[Harry Hayfield]

RTE One will be broadcasting special election programmes at 1100 (0600 EDT), 1500 (1000 EDT) and 2030 (1530 EDT) with RTE News broadcasting the whole thing from start to finish on Friday as well. BBC Parliament do not appear to be simulcasting anything (but that might change as today goes on) so if you do not want to be tied to a computer and you live in the UK you can either a) have a aerial that points towards the Irish Republic or b) tune to channel 0160 on Sky for RTE Radio 1, 0164 for RTE 2FM or if you fancy your Gaelic skills 0166 for RTE R na G

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Can´t vote, currently not in the country. However, I would have voted -
1. Norris
2. Higgins
****GAP****
3. Mitchell
4. Davis
5. Gallagher
6. McGuinness
***CHASM***
7. Dana

We should also use this thread for the results of the Dublin West by-election, which is also today.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've edited the title

[Insula Dei]

So basically all our Irish members vote the same way? Cool.

[Јas]

So basically all our Irish members vote the same way? Cool.

And are clearly not remotely representative of the Irish electorate.

Otherwise the impending Norris landslide is going to take the media by surprise.

[lilTommy]

Anyone have a call on the by-election? who will take it?

Four are members of Fingal County Council, odd, anyone know how each are perceived?: David McGuinness of Fianna Fáil,
Eithne Loftus of Fine Gael,
Patrick Nulty of the Labour Party,
Ruth Coppinger of the Socialist Party,
non-council candidates:
Paul Donnelly of Sinn Féin,
Roderic O'Gorman of the Green Party,
Peadar Ó Ceallaigh of Fís Nua

and 6 independents! holy thats a crowded field. There are two left members one labour the other Socialist; any chance another from either party takes it? or will FF win back the seat? Could the greens get back into the Dail (have the Irish forgiven them yet?) or is there any SF support in Dublin West?