Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)
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Poll
Question: Which Gay do you support?
#1
Gay Mitchell
 
#2
Gay Byrne
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 10

Author Topic: Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)  (Read 84969 times)
ObserverIE
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« Reply #200 on: October 28, 2011, 01:10:46 PM »
« edited: October 28, 2011, 01:14:58 PM by ObserverIE »

Dublin North Central (predominantly lower-middle class territory with upper-middle class fringe, formerly Haugheyland):

Higgins 46.4 Gallagher 20.1 McGuinness 11.2 Norris 10.5 Mitchell 5.9 Davis 3.5 Scallon 2.5

Cork North Central (mainly working-class Northside of Cork city diluted with commuter territory and large rural rump):

Higgins 37.6 Gallagher 28.1 McGuinness 20.0 Norris 5.1 Mitchell 4.7 Scallon 2.9 Davis 1.7

Cork South Central (more middle-class end of Cork city along with large chunk of commuter belt):

Higgins 45.0 Gallagher 24.9 McGuinness 14.1 Norris 6.5 Mitchell 4.7 Scallon 2.8 Davis 2.0

Scallon now looking likely to overhaul Davis on first preferences.

Off for a while...
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lilTommy
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« Reply #201 on: October 28, 2011, 01:53:57 PM »

Now that was a close 4th count...

NULTY, Patrick LAB  13034
McGUINNESS, David FF  9865
COPPINGER, Ruth SP  9847

- knocked off by 18 votes! talk about close... i was hoping (insert dreaming) she'd be able to pull it off, but realistically i thought McGuinness would have killed her on the 4th ballot.

Do they do recounts?
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freek
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« Reply #202 on: October 28, 2011, 01:58:49 PM »

Now that was a close 4th count...

NULTY, Patrick LAB  13034
McGUINNESS, David FF  9865
COPPINGER, Ruth SP  9847

- knocked off by 18 votes! talk about close... i was hoping (insert dreaming) she'd be able to pull it off, but realistically i thought McGuinness would have killed her on the 4th ballot.

Do they do recounts?


They do. A recount is currently in progress:

1947 Dublin West By-Election 4th Count RESULT: Ruth Coppinger excluded after count four, however a full recount has been ordered after just 18 votes separated the Socialist Party candidate from Fianna Fáil's David McGuinness.
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freek
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« Reply #203 on: October 28, 2011, 02:01:56 PM »

Longford-Westmeath RESULT: Higgins 35.5%; Gallagher 33.7%; McGuinness 13.1%; Mitchell 7.5%; Norris 4.8%; Scallon 3.4%; Davis 2.1%

Roscommon-South Leitrim RESULT: Gallagher 36%; Higgins 31.8%; McGuinness 14.6%; Mitchell 6.5%; Scallon 4.4%; Norris 3.7%; Davis 3%

Wicklow RESULT: Higgins 41.6%; Gallagher 28.4%; McGuinness 11.6%; Norris 8%; Mitchell 4.8%; Davis 3.1%; Scallon 2.4%

Kerry South RESULT: Higgins 36.7%; Gallagher 30.6%; McGuinness 14.9%; Mitchell 7.3%; Norris 3.9%; Scallon 3.9%; Davis 2.7%

Kerry North-West Limerick RESULT: Higgins 37.9%; Gallagher 29%; McGuinness 16.8%; Mitchell 6.5%; Norris 3.8%; Scallon 3.7%; Davis 2.2%

Waterford RESULT: Higgins 38.7%; Gallagher 31%; McGuinness 13.6%; Mitchell 5.9%; Norris 5.8%; Scallon 2.9%; Davis 2.2%

Limerick RESULT: Higgins 38.7%; Gallagher 33.5%; McGuinness 10.6%; Mitchell 7.8%; Norris 3.7%; Scallon 3.4%; Davis 2.2%

Clare RESULT: Higgins 44.3%; Gallagher 31.4%; McGuinness 10.5%; Mitchell 5.4%; Norris 3.6%; Scallon 2.8%; Davis 1.9%

Dublin North West RESULT: Higgins 38.8%; Gallagher 20.3%; McGuinness 19.9%; Norris 10.6%; Mitchell 4.4%; Davis 3.7%; Scallon 2.3%
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freek
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« Reply #204 on: October 28, 2011, 02:05:08 PM »

Tipperary North RESULT: Gallagher 35.6%; Higgins 34.8%; McGuinness 11.8%; Mitchell 8.2%; Scallon 3.7%; Norris 3.7%; Davis 2.3%

Carlow-Kilkenny RESULT: Higgins 36.7%; Gallagher 33.8%; McGuinness 12.4%; Mitchell 7.7%; Norris 4.8%, Scallon 2.7%; Davis 1.9%
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #205 on: October 28, 2011, 02:13:46 PM »

We're left waiting for:

Galway West (self-consciously hip city - think of a wetter, heterosexual Brighton or a Seattle without any tech giants - allied to remote, Irish-speaking hinterland: Michael D's home base and will go to him by a landslide)

Laois-Offaly (last boggy redoubt of Fianna Fáil - rural small towns with some outer Dublin commuter territory: Gallagher should win narrowly)

Louth (two down-at-heel industrial towns that have been somewhat commuterised and with an influx from Northern Ireland, with a rural annexe and a reputation for relaxed business standards: Gallagher's home base but Higgins will outpoll him)

Cavan-Monaghan (deeply rural, small-farmer territory along the border, where Gallagher was born and grew up: Gallagher by a landslide with McGuinness second and Higgins a poor third)
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patrick1
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« Reply #206 on: October 28, 2011, 02:14:38 PM »

So overall it looks like something like

Higgins 40%
Gallagher 28%
McGuinness 13%
Norris 6.5%
Mitchell 6.5%
Dana  3%
Davis 3%

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patrick1
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« Reply #207 on: October 28, 2011, 02:18:42 PM »

Wasnt Gallagher getting beat 2-1 in a lot of parts of Louth.  I know he was losing his hometown of Blackrock by that margin.

I thought McGuinness, Mitchell and Norris did worse than I thought they would by a few percentage points. I thought Higgins would have been around 35 than 40.  Gallagher is right around where I thought he would be.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #208 on: October 28, 2011, 02:25:09 PM »

Galway West: Higgins 57.6 Gallagher 18.5 McGuinness 10.7 Mitchell 4.6 Scallon 3.5 Norris 3.3 Davis 1.8
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #209 on: October 28, 2011, 02:27:22 PM »

Wasnt Gallagher getting beat 2-1 in a lot of parts of Louth.  I know he was losing his hometown of Blackrock by that margin.

I thought McGuinness, Mitchell and Norris did worse than I thought they would by a few percentage points. I thought Higgins would have been around 35 than 40.  Gallagher is right around where I thought he would be.

Blackrock is a middle-class suburb of Dundalk and the middle-class areas today have been going to Higgins (see south Dublin for examples). Gallagher is appealing more to rural voters and the aspirational lower middle-classes - a Tay Party candidate if you will.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #210 on: October 28, 2011, 02:36:02 PM »

Cavan-Monaghan: Gallagher 45.1 McGuinness 20.6 Higgins 19.8 Mitchell 7.1 Norris 2.8 Scallon 2.7 Davis 1.8
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #211 on: October 28, 2011, 02:44:53 PM »

So, in short, Higgins has this in the bag, as does the Labour candidate out in whatever place they are doing the by-election?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #212 on: October 28, 2011, 03:01:42 PM »

So, in short, Higgins has this in the bag, as does the Labour candidate out in whatever place they are doing the by-election?

Higgins was always going to attract more transfers than Gallagher from all the other candidates (except perhaps Scallon). The Father Ted moment at the debate and the car crash on the radio the following morning ensured that the transfers were going to go even more strongly to him.

Gallagher would have had to be ahead by more than 6% to counteract that. Instead, a large chunk of his vote (the bits who were attracted to the idea of an indepedent candidate as President) switched en masse to Higgins.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #213 on: October 28, 2011, 03:15:46 PM »

yesbutwhatImsayingis, since he's not ahead, Higgins has this in the bag.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #214 on: October 28, 2011, 03:18:43 PM »

Louth: Higgins 36.3 Gallagher 29.6 McGuinness 20.0 Norris 5.5 Mitchell 4.1 Davis 2.3 Scallon 2.2
Laois-Offaly: Gallagher 37.6 Higgins 31.8 McGuinness 13.0 Mitchell 6.6 Norris 6.0 Scallon 3.0 Davis 2.0
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #215 on: October 28, 2011, 03:21:46 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2011, 06:53:31 PM by ObserverIE »

National First Preference Vote:

Higgins 39.6
Gallagher 28.5
McGuinness 13.7
Mitchell 6.4
Norris 6.2
Scallon 2.9
Davis 2.7

Scallon and Davis eliminated.

Update: Transfers so far are edging Mitchell further ahead of Norris. The second count result is likely to be announced at around 1am. The next count will be the distribution of Norris's transfers in order to see if they could move Mitchell above the 12.5% mark required to retrieve some of his expenses (they won't).

The count is likely to be adjourned until morning after the second count announcement.

The Dublin West recount has resulted in a dead heat between Coppinger and McGuinness, with FF pushing for a total recount in the morning.

The referendum on judicial pay looks likely to be passed easily, but the referendum on parliamentary enquiries will be lost.
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patrick1
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« Reply #216 on: October 28, 2011, 03:23:04 PM »

Higgins has had this in the bag since monday night, teddy.  Gallagher wilted under scrutiny.  The one thing I'm surprised at if that most everyone who jumped ship all broke for higgins.  Martin did a good job taking sg down but that didn't ttranslate into votes.

 
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #217 on: October 28, 2011, 09:21:00 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2011, 09:23:27 PM by ObserverIE »

Count 2

Higgins701,101(39.6%)+29,379730,480(41.2%)
Gallagher504,964(28.5%)+24,437529,401(29.9%)
McGuinness243,030(13.7%)
+9,581
252,611(14.3%)
Mitchell113,321
(6.4%)
+14,036
127,357
(7.2%)
Norris109,469
(6.2%)
+7,057
116,526
(6.6%)
Scallon
51,220
(2.9%)
-51,220
Davis
48,567
(2.7%)
-48,567
Non-transferable
0
(0.0%)
+15,387
15,387
(0.9%)

Norris eliminated
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #218 on: October 28, 2011, 09:48:52 PM »

Nulty wins Dublin West for Labour

Nulty8,6658,88510,18613,02717,636
McGuinness7,7427,935
8,720
9,873
11,590
Coppinger7,5427,834
9,368
9,873
Loftus5,2635,410
5,942
Donnelly3,1733,309
O'Gorman1,7871,925
Caesar Hunt
775
Kidd
311
Bermingham
185
Doris
95
Tallon
73
Cooney
51
Ó Ceallaigh
40
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #219 on: October 28, 2011, 11:43:50 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2011, 11:47:37 PM by Kevinstat »

Nulty wins Dublin West for Labour

Nulty8,6658,88510,18613,02717,636
McGuinness7,7427,935
8,720
9,873
11,590
Coppinger7,5427,834
9,368
9,873
Loftus5,2635,410
5,942
Donnelly3,1733,309
O'Gorman1,7871,925
Caesar Hunt
775
Kidd
311
Bermingham
185
Doris
95
Tallon
73
Cooney
51
Ó Ceallaigh
40

I'm surprised Donnelly was eliminated at the same time as O'Gorman when O'Gorman's vote could have theoretically pushed Donnelly over the threshold to recieve some reimbursement for his expenses.  Not that 60% of the Green Party (second count) vote would have gone to a Shinner (as would have been necessary for Donnelly to cross the expenses threshold) with Labour, a Socialist and Fianna Fail still in play (I doubt FG would have gotten many) but still.  Or is the threshold in that election not 1/4 of the quota (just over 12.5% of the vote in the single-winner case)?

How was the tie in the second-to-last count broken in favor of FF?  Will there be another recount?
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #220 on: October 28, 2011, 11:53:48 PM »


Higgins is the presumptive favourite.

I suspect Davis would have the best shot at beating him

Smiley

What was the whole deal with Davis tanking anyway?  Scandal, being upstaged by Gallagher, or a combination?
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freek
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« Reply #221 on: October 28, 2011, 11:55:16 PM »

Nulty wins Dublin West for Labour

McGuinness7,7427,935
8,720
9,873
11,590
Coppinger7,5427,834
9,368
9,873
Wow, a tie. Why was Coppinger eliminated instead of McGuinness? Because she had less first-preference votes?
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #222 on: October 29, 2011, 12:07:58 AM »

Count 2

Higgins701,101(39.6%)+29,379730,480(41.2%)
Gallagher504,964(28.5%)+24,437529,401(29.9%)
McGuinness243,030(13.7%)
+9,581
252,611(14.3%)
Mitchell113,321
(6.4%)
+14,036
127,357
(7.2%)
Norris109,469
(6.2%)
+7,057
116,526
(6.6%)
Scallon
51,220
(2.9%)
-51,220
Davis
48,567
(2.7%)
-48,567
Non-transferable
0
(0.0%)
+15,387
15,387
(0.9%)

Norris eliminated

It's mathematically impossible for anyone other than Higgins or Gallagher to win now.  Will Mitchell and McGuinness both be officially excluded before Count 4?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #223 on: October 29, 2011, 12:24:09 AM »

When I first read about Gallagher's 'Father Ted moment', I initially assumed he had poorly attempted a Chinaman impression or something.  The 'money was just resting in my account' debacle isn't quite as entertaining, alas.
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patrick1
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« Reply #224 on: October 29, 2011, 12:51:20 AM »

I havent watched Father Ted in a decade so I didnt really get the reference.

After following Gallagher recently I don't think he was capable of any humor- embarrassing or otherwise.  He just spouted out a bunch of platitudes and nonsense really.  Ive never seen his reality show but I can't fathom what he brings to the table.  Scratch the surface of his supposed business acumen and you just find shady deals helped by politicos.

Anyway, glad Michael D pulled it off. He is a bit of a windbag and getting older but it is not really a high impact job. I am disappointed that McGuinness was unable to bring in more support. I am glad he ran but it is time for the younger generation to start taking a more marquee role.
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