Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[YL]

28% in Dublin for Ind/Other looks a lot at first glance, but I suppose it's not that surprising (and is subject to all the usual health warnings about margin of error on subsamples).

[ObserverIE]

28% in Dublin for Ind/Other looks a lot at first glance, but I suppose it's not that surprising (and is subject to all the usual health warnings about margin of error on subsamples).

According to the press release, the Socialist Party (the continuation of Militant and one half of the ULA) are on 6% in Dublin.

[Јas]

Seeing as the elections are over (and noting Boardbashi's Additional Rule 2) the polls and such are probably more suited to the General Discussion thread rather than here on the Elections Board.

[Oakvale]

I'd imagine the government parties are pretty happy with this poll, all things considered. Both Labour and Fine Gael are only a few points off their GE performance, and the Sinn Féin surge seems to have abated.

[minionofmidas]

Who are these neither male nor female persons and why do they disapprove of indies so much?

[Јas]

Good spot.

[ObserverIE]

Referendum at some unspecified point this year on the European Fiscal Compact after the Attorney-General decided that it probably required a referendum for ratification. Government rather unsuccessfully pretending not to be disapppointed, with the leader of the Labour Party facing the prospect of asking the electorate to vote for Frankfurt's way (joke from last year's election campaign).

The only poll taken on the treaty so far showed a margin of 40/36 in favour (although interestingly, the only age group with a majority in favour were the under-25s, who are least likely to actually vote).

Political support levels:

RedC (23-25/1)

FG 30 (-2)
FF 18 (-)
SF 17 (+2)
Ind/Others 17 (-1)
Lab 14 (-1)
Green 3 (+2)
SP 1 (-)

Behaviours & Attitudes (15-20/2)

FG 32 (+2)
SF 25 (+4)
FF 16 (-4)
Ind/Others 15 (-)
Lab 10 (-1)
Green 2 (-1)

Make of it what you will...

Another RedC poll due for Sunday.

[ObserverIE]

Éamon Ó Cuív (grandson of Éamon de Valera) resigns/is resigned as deputy leader of Fianna Fáil because of his unwillingness to vote for the Fiscal Compact in the Dáil.

Not resigning from Fianna Fáil - at least not yet.

[ObserverIE]

Red C poll:

Yes 44 No 29 Don't know 26

Party standings:

FG 30 (-)
SF 18 (+1)
FF 17 (-1)
Ind/Others 17 (-1)
Lab 16 (+2)
Green 2 (-1)

Millward Brown/IMS poll:

Yes 37 No 26 Don't know 15 "It depends" 21

[ObserverIE]

Red C poll:

Yes 49 No 33 Don't know 18

(According to news reports, these figures are more selective than previous polls about excluding those unlikely to vote.)

Update: The like-for-like figures with the previous poll are:

Yes 46 (+2) No 36 (+7) Don't know 18 (-8)

although you have to delve deep into the article to discover that.

Party standings (pre-Mahon report):

FG 34 (+4)
SF 18 (-)
FF 16 (-1)
Lab 15 (-1)
Ind/Others 15 (-2)
Green 2 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Fiscal treaty referendum to be held on Thursday, May 31.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fiscal treaty referendum to be held on Thursday, May 31.

This is the first (and I hope the last) time I support the "no" side in a EU referendum.

Please Irishmen, save Europe from perennial recession !

[Insula Dei]

Fiscal treaty referendum to be held on Thursday, May 31.

This is the first (and I hope the last) time I support the "no" side in a EU referendum.

Please Irishmen, save Europe from perennial recession !

Yeah, Ireland should do what it does best: sinking an Eu treaty.

[ObserverIE]

Fiscal treaty referendum to be held on Thursday, May 31.

This is the first (and I hope the last) time I support the "no" side in a EU referendum.

Please Irishmen, save Europe from perennial recession !

I'm not sure whether we could achieve that even if we vote No; the treaty still goes ahead as soon as the first twelve members endorse it.

I would suggest that the French electorate have more power in this regard, but that's just me:

[ObserverIE]

Fiscal treaty referendum to be held on Thursday, May 31.

This is the first (and I hope the last) time I support the "no" side in a EU referendum.

Please Irishmen, save Europe from perennial recession !

Yeah, Ireland should do what it does best: sinking an Eu treaty.

We might have postponed one or two, but I don't think we've ever sunk one; the only ones to achieve that were your southern and northern neighbours (with the EU constitution).

[ObserverIE]

Another RedC poll taken more recently this week, with the same (adjusted) figures:

Yes 49 No 33 Don't Know 18

although this seems to produce a 59-41 breakdown with Don't Knows excluded.

Looking at the bowels of the poll and the crosstabs on party support, Sinn Féin seems to be very low: 61 in the sample as opposed to 127 for Labour. Fine Gael support in the sample also seems to be extremely high by comparison with recent polls.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI(generally considered the most reliable of the pollsters):

Yes 30 No 23 Don't Know 39 Won't Vote 8

[minionofmidas]

Looking good.

[ObserverIE]

First government campaign pro-treaty video launched:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TZfzAOooEOU

...eh, sorry, I meant this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NyqHTJ3h90U

Easy to get mixed up with those non-threatening regional accents...

[minionofmidas]

First one ought to get fewer people to vote 'no'.

[ObserverIE]

First one ought to get fewer people to vote 'no'.

Longford can be a terrifying sight, I suppose. Especially after the nightclub closes on a Saturday night.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MORI party standings, for what it's worth:

FG 33 (-3)
SF 21 (+6)
Ind/Others 17 (+3)
FF 14 (-1)
Lab 13 (-6)
Green 2 (+1)

Government satisfaction: Yes 23 (-14), No 72 (+17)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0420/1224314969462.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sinn Fein will lead in the polls this time next year.

[patrick1]

First government campaign pro-treaty video launched:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TZfzAOooEOU

...eh, sorry, I meant this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NyqHTJ3h90U

Easy to get mixed up with those non-threatening regional accents...

Haha, hilarious.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

First government campaign pro-treaty video launched:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TZfzAOooEOU

...eh, sorry, I meant this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NyqHTJ3h90U

Easy to get mixed up with those non-threatening regional accents...

The real ad is actually really creepy for some reason. There's something very "propaganda brain washing" over it.