Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)
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Poll
Question: Which Gay do you support?
#1
Gay Mitchell
 
#2
Gay Byrne
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 10

Author Topic: Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)  (Read 84972 times)
ObserverIE
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« Reply #375 on: May 31, 2012, 04:47:27 PM »
« edited: May 31, 2012, 04:49:31 PM by ObserverIE »

Turnout likely to be well below 50% nationally. It was 52% at my local (very rural) polling station on the Leinster/Ulster border which generally manages 75% in general elections.

Turnout supposedly relatively higher in urban working-class areas which may be ominous for Yes (but then I seem to remember much the same being said on election night about Lisbon II which was 69% Yes).
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Torie
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« Reply #376 on: May 31, 2012, 09:38:34 PM »

"Secret" exit polls predict Yes vote victory by 3-2 margin despite low turnout. No, I don't know what this "secret" thing is all about, and the article does not tell us.

cc: Jas
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #377 on: June 01, 2012, 02:41:37 AM »

"Secret" exit polls predict Yes vote victory by 3-2 margin despite low turnout. No, I don't know what this "secret" thing is all about, and the article does not tell us.

cc: Jas

That sort of result, it seems, is the closest thing to conventional wisdom about what the result might be - at least on the side that thinks Yes will win.

I'm pretty doubtful any such exit poll actually exists, but thanks for the pointer.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #378 on: June 01, 2012, 03:38:06 AM »

Counting has been underway for just over half an hour.

Very, very early indications suggest to me a single digit win for Yes seems plausible.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #379 on: June 01, 2012, 03:44:11 AM »

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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #380 on: June 01, 2012, 03:46:49 AM »

Early tallies starting to appear...

Dublin Mid West - 8% Boxes Open: Yes 52% No 48%
Dublin North West: 10% Boxes Open - NO 52% Yes 47%
Wicklow - 17% Boxes Open: Yes 55% No 45%
Laois/Offaly: 9% Boxes Open , Yes 60% No 40%

Unkown how many boxes open...
Wexford: Yes 60% No 40%
Dublin Mid West: Yes 52% No 48%
Dublin North: No 60% Yes 40%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #381 on: June 01, 2012, 03:48:45 AM »

Dublin South: 7.7% Boxes Open, Yes 69% No 31%
Louth: 10% boxes open, Yes 52.03% No 47.97%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #382 on: June 01, 2012, 03:54:17 AM »

Limerick County - 60% Boxes Open: Yes 60% No 40%
Limerick City - 70% Boxes Open: Yes 57% No 43%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #383 on: June 01, 2012, 03:57:23 AM »

Mayo - 20% boxes open: Yes 68% No 31%
Dublin South Central - 20% boxes open: NO 67% Yes 32%
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #384 on: June 01, 2012, 04:02:40 AM »

Why is there a box in the middle there? There are only two options.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #385 on: June 01, 2012, 04:02:53 AM »

Dublin Central - 23% boxes open: Yes 50% No 49%
Wicklow - 30% boxes open,  Yes 57%, No 43%
Donegal North East - 37% boxes opened: No 58% Yes 42%
Sligo-North Leitrim - 38% boxes open: Yes 55% No 45%
Roscommon/South Leitrim - 17% boxes open: Yes 60% No 40%
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MaxQue
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« Reply #386 on: June 01, 2012, 04:03:35 AM »

Doesn't Irish is spoken by only 1 to 5% of the population?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #387 on: June 01, 2012, 04:03:49 AM »

Why is there a box in the middle there? There are only two options.

That particular voter, rather neatly, created the middle box to spoil the ballot accordingly.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #388 on: June 01, 2012, 04:14:46 AM »

Doesn't Irish is spoken by only 1 to 5% of the population?

Per last year's census, 41.4% of the population claimed to be able to speak Irish - though only 1.3% claim to do so on a daily basis (outside of the education system).
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #389 on: June 01, 2012, 04:15:46 AM »

Dublin North East - 5% boxes open: Yes 50% No 49%
Waterford - 41% boxes open: Yes 58% No 42%
Cork North Central - 10% boxes open: No 56% Yes 44%
Cork South Central - 18% Boxes Open: Yes 59% No 41%
Cork North West - 50% boxes Open: Yes 64% No 36%.
Cork East - 50% boxes open: - Yes 62% No 38%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #390 on: June 01, 2012, 04:24:19 AM »

Dún Laoghaire - 20% Boxes Open: Yes 70% No 30%
Kerry North/West Limerick - 40% Boxes Open: Yes 60% No 40%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #391 on: June 01, 2012, 04:28:17 AM »

That's a surprisingly big Yes number in Kerry N - tradionally one of the more 'euro-skeptic' constituencies.

Similarly, Cork in general (esp. NW, E, and NC) looks like showing very strong swings towards Yes compared to previous euro-referenda.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #392 on: June 01, 2012, 04:49:43 AM »

So basically Donegal and working-class Dublin vote no, middle class Dublin likes the thing, and the rest of Ireland swallows the poisonous medicine because their leaders told them to?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #393 on: June 01, 2012, 04:55:13 AM »

So basically Donegal and working-class Dublin vote no, middle class Dublin likes the thing, and the rest of Ireland swallows the poisonous medicine because their leaders told them to?


Basically. Though working-class Cork and some of the other border counties also seems to be "no" (or at least a lot closer than the national average).
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #394 on: June 01, 2012, 05:04:17 AM »

Complete tallies...
Dublin West: Yes 58% No 42%
Cork North Central: No 59% Yes 41%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #395 on: June 01, 2012, 06:12:25 AM »

More complete tallies...
Cork East: Yes 60% No 40%.
Cork North West: Yes 66% No 34%
Cork South Central: Yes 61% No 39%
Kildare South: Yes 58% No 42%
Galway West: Yes 58% No 42%
Donegal South West: No 55% Yes 45%
Dublin North: Yes 64% No 36%
Dublin Mid-West: Yes 49% No 51%
Kerry North/West Limerick: Yes 60% No 40%
Wexford: Yes 58% No 42%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #396 on: June 01, 2012, 06:33:28 AM »

Louth - Yes 52% No 47%
Clare - Yes 65% No 45%
Tipperary North - Yes 64% No 36%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #397 on: June 01, 2012, 06:43:06 AM »

RESULT
Tipperary North:  60.65% - 39.35%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #398 on: June 01, 2012, 06:44:21 AM »

RESULTS
Limerick City: 60.69% - 39.31%
Galway East: 63.25% - 36.75%
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #399 on: June 01, 2012, 06:47:34 AM »

RESULT
Waterford:  57.66% - 42.34%
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