Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[Oakvale]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html
Not directly related, but excellent news!!!

edit - oh someone beat me too it.
Still!! I hope this is the start of real left-right split in Ireland.

If it means Sinn fein being the largest party on "the left" then I don´t want it.

This. Oh God, this.

e: There's been a lot of speculation that Sinn Féin's numbers will go down somewhat once the Presidential campaign's over and Martin McGuinness has gone home. There's probably some truth to that, although Sinn Féin seem to have succesfully sucked up a lot of the FF vote.

[Хahar 🤔]

Given that Sinn Féin is the opposition party that isn't Fianna Fáil (and also the republican party that isn't Fianna Fáil), it's not surprising that it's polling well.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html
Not directly related, but excellent news!!!

edit - oh someone beat me too it.
Still!! I hope this is the start of real left-right split in Ireland.

If it means Sinn fein being the largest party on "the left" then I don´t want it.

This. ^

I'd take Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What do you have against SF?

[MaxQue]

What do you have against SF?

IRA.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What do you have against SF?

How long a history lesson do you want?

Anyway, I still maintain that SF is not really a left-wing party. The similarties between it and what Fianna Fail were in the 20s are, to me at least, very striking.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would kindly suggest keeping that kind of 'debate' about Northern Ireland out of my domain.

(Some posts have been deleted, naturally)

[Oakvale]

I'd like to note for posterity that Dana has temporarily become the most talked-about candidate in the race.

[Insula Dei]

I'd like to note for posterity that Dana has temporarily become the most talked-about candidate in the race.

How's that?

[Oakvale]

I'd like to note for posterity that Dana has temporarily become the most talked-about candidate in the race.

How's that?

Almost broke down in a debate while making a bizzare statement denying an "allegation" which she wouldn't specify. Two days later, it emerges that her brother (I think) is accused of child abuse.

It doesn't really matter since she's the fringiest of fringe candidates, but it was the most reported part of the debate. That and Martin McGuinness being relentlessly harangued (even though it was on RTÉ [/obscure Irish political in-joke]) by the moderator on his IRA past.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Unlike this forum, people are allowed to discuss the IRA in Ireland, and I am not alone in my feelings about who the "wrong" side in the IRA VS UK war was. While 50%+1 in Ireland will disagree with me, and prevent McGuinness from winning, I am confidant that he would take 35%-40% if he were on a final ballot with Gay Mitchell.

[YL]

Is Higgins still looking on course to win?

I think I'd vote something like 1. Higgins 2. Norris 3. Davis.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Is Higgins still looking on course to win?

I think I'd vote something like 1. Higgins 2. Norris 3. Davis.

From what I've seen, Higgins looks like a great person. I'd probably put him #1 as well. I think that with the controversial around Norris and McGuinness, that there's a good chance that many others would agree with me, and, that if the final ballot were Higgins-Norris or Higgins-McGuinness, that Higgins would win easily. The only problem for him is if Gallagher gets to the final ballot

[Oakvale]

There's allegedly new Red C figures up on Politics.ie. No confirmation on whether they're accurate yet, and done before the debates, where Gallagher got grilled quite a bit, so maybe he's peaked, but uh... Gallagher leads with 39%.

I am going to flee the country.

[ObserverIE]

RedC carried out on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (sample 1,000, changes since last RedC poll):

Gallagher 39% (+18%)
Higgins 27% (+2%)
McGuinness 13% (-3%)
Mitchell 8% (-2%)
Norris 7% (-7%)
Davis 4% (-5%)
Scallon 2% (-3%)

[Oakvale]

Jesus wept. If Gallagher gets in it would be just typical. Gah.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Jesus wept. If Gallagher gets in it would be just typical. Gah.

I think I´m going to return to my state of utter bafflement at the personality judgements (as well as other types of judgements) of the Irish people.

[ObserverIE]

There's allegedly new Red C figures up on Politics.ie. No confirmation on whether they're accurate yet, and done before the debates, where Gallagher got grilled quite a bit, so maybe he's peaked, but uh... Gallagher leads with 39%.

I am going to flee the country.

The way I look at it is this:

Dana has imploded and is now coming across as being as firmly connected to reality as Mother Bernadette Sinéad Jah O'Connor.

Davis hasn't so much imploded as developed a slow puncture. Running what looks to be an extremely well-financed campaign and describing one of our would-be oligarchs as your "mentor" is not going to win you the non-/anti-politics vote.

Norris has descended into self-parody mode and has turned the dial on the Queeny Joycean Scholar schtick up to 11. It may well appeal to the hipster vote in Dublin but it passes by everyone else.

Mitchell is a horrible candidate who has run a horrible campaign aided and abetted by the arrogant jackass wing of his own party, and has alienated all but his own ultras as a result. (And the fact that the ultras are in single percentage figures should make the Fine Gael hierarchy fear what might be coming down the line at the next general election.)

McGuinness has been subjected to an over-the-top campaign by the broadcast and national print media, which might well get him some of the "f*** you" vote on election day, but there's still an upper limit on the SF vote by those who remember 69-94 even if they don't share the foaming-at-the-mouth stance of the Sunday Independent & Co.

Higgins has performed well, but being the de facto government candidate won't benefit him and in the TV3 debate he may have looked distinguished but he also looked old.

I'm not personally impressed by Gallagher, I don't think he'll make a particularly good President, but I can see how he's picking up the "best of a bad lot" vote beyond just the ex-FF base. I don't see him being beaten at this stage.

[Oakvale]

I think I´m going to return to my state of utter bafflement at the personality judgements (as well as other types of judgements) of the Irish people.

After an all too brief respite, I'm again developing "Fianna Fáil fatalism", where I glumly and resignedly accept that FF will almost always find a way to win an election. What better candidate for the highest office in the land than a third-rate television personality and gombeen businessman?

The one reason for optimism is that this poll was apparently taken before the Primetime debate in which Gallagher did fairly poorly, but I now fully expect us to have a Fianna Fáil President come November. Again.

EDIT: I'm also probably going having to switch my first preference to Higgins now. Oh well.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

To me, it's Gallagher VS Higgins. The horserace is on.

[minionofmidas]

After an all too brief respite, I'm again developing "Fianna Fáil fatalism", where I glumly and resignedly accept that FF will almost always find a way to win an election. What better candidate for the highest office in the land than a third-rate television personality and gombeen businessman?

If you want to find a way to win an election right after that drubbing... probably no better type of candidate.
It also helps that he makes Davis look like a weak female milquetoast copy of himself, of course. What with the born blind stuff and all.

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Why? As long as he's rated above Gallagher and McGuinness on your ballot, it probably doesn't matter if he's first, second, third, fourth or fifth, no?

[patrick1]

There's allegedly new Red C figures up on Politics.ie. No confirmation on whether they're accurate yet, and done before the debates, where Gallagher got grilled quite a bit, so maybe he's peaked, but uh... Gallagher leads with 39%.

I am going to flee the country.

Higgins has performed well, but being the de facto government candidate won't benefit him and in the TV3 debate he may have looked distinguished but he also looked old.

Is Michael D one of those guys like Wilford Brimely who came out of the womb looking old?  I was pretty surprised he is only 70.

Anyone know if there are any polls that have a regional breakdown?

[ObserverIE]

There's allegedly new Red C figures up on Politics.ie. No confirmation on whether they're accurate yet, and done before the debates, where Gallagher got grilled quite a bit, so maybe he's peaked, but uh... Gallagher leads with 39%.

I am going to flee the country.

Higgins has performed well, but being the de facto government candidate won't benefit him and in the TV3 debate he may have looked distinguished but he also looked old.

Is Michael D one of those guys like Wilford Brimely who came out of the womb looking old?  I was pretty surprised he is only 70.

He's always had that hairstyle for as long as I can remember, although the colour used to be a reddish-brown.



It matters, I think, that he also looks older than the others in the same age group - Norris is only a couple of years younger but is well-preserved in comparison, McGuinness is about a decade behind him but looks much younger, Davis has done a reverse Dorian Gray with her posters, and Mitchell - well, you know what they say about the undead...

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http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/SBP-President-Poll-Report-16th-Oct-2011.pdf

MRBI also does regional/age-group/social class breakdowns, because the Irish Times polling analysis refers to them in the accompanying articles, but they aren't published.

[Oakvale]

New Red C poll. Yeah.

Gallagher 40% (+1)
Higgins 26% (-1)
McGuinness 13% (nc)
Norris 10% (+3)
Mitchell 6% (-2)
Dana 3% (+2)
Davis 2% (-1)

I'm planning a form of avant-garde protest, in which when Gallagher's announced the winner I'll set my house on fire and then shoot myself as an artistic statement.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times, carried out Monday to Wednesday:

Gallagher 38
Higgins 26
McGuinness 17
Mitchell 8
Norris 6
Davis 3
Scallon 2