Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)
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Question: Which Gay do you support?
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Gay Mitchell
 
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Gay Byrne
 
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Total Voters: 10

Author Topic: Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)  (Read 84976 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #275 on: October 30, 2011, 08:27:15 AM »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirtieth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
This is an amendment to allow the Oilycrotches (the Irish Parliament) to investigate or something. Currently the Oirelandhcats (the Irish Parliament) can not do so, or something, so they wanted to allow it to be that way. The Orig... the Irish Parliament wanted these powers, of course, because of the Applebees incident...
Actually
I really dont understand this issue Tongue Anyway, it failed.

This referendum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-Ninth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
however is easy to understand. It allows the Parliament to lower the wages of judges.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #276 on: October 30, 2011, 08:30:11 AM »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirtieth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
This is an amendment to allow the Oilycrotches (the Irish Parliament) to investigate or something. Currently the Oirelandhcats (the Irish Parliament) can not do so, or something, so they wanted to allow it to be that way. The Orig... the Irish Parliament wanted these powers, of course, because of the Applebees incident...
Actually
I really dont understand this issue Tongue Anyway, it failed.

This referendum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-Ninth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
however is easy to understand. It allows the Parliament to lower the wages of judges.

Cause when they made cross-the-board cuts to senior civil servants' pay at the height of the crisis, they had to exempt judges because of the provision now being amended.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #277 on: October 30, 2011, 08:33:20 AM »

Yes, that is the Referendum I do understand.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #278 on: October 30, 2011, 08:36:06 AM »

Yes, that is the Referendum I do understand.
The other referendum was attempting to overrule a contentious Supreme Court decision.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #279 on: October 30, 2011, 08:51:55 AM »

Except in Ulster, Higgins received the last-count preferences of at least 50.0% (just over, in Roscommon - Leitrim) of third party voters, and usually no more than 56%, except in his Dublin strongholds and in Connaught, where they rise up to 60.8% (Galway West) and a whopping 66.3% (Dublin SE, with Dublin S, Dunleary, and Galway W being the three next best results.) 54.1% is the national figures.
43.4% in Cavan-Monaghan, 38.4% in Donegal SW, and 36.9% in Donegal NE form a remarkable outlier.
Gallagher receives between 15.9% (Dublin SE) and 25.3% (Donegal NE) anywhere except in Cavan-Monaghan, with Dublin results ranging up to 21.4% (N, SW), while his weakest share outside is in the city of Limerick at 18.2%. Cavan-Monaghan gave the local boy 30.8% of lower preferences. The national rate is 21.8%.
The exhausted shares (of the third party vote) are lowest in the same three South Dublin constituencies where Higgins cleans house, though they are not really outliers here - Dublin S coming in lowest at 17.4% - and range up to in 29.2% Cork NC, except in Donniegaul. Here 36.7% (SW) and 37.8% (NE) were exhausted. Cavan-Monaghan is unremarkable at 25.8%. In general, high exhaustion rates appear to be predictably correlated with high vote shares for Martin McGuinness. The national rate is 24.1%.
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JandK
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« Reply #280 on: October 30, 2011, 11:40:58 AM »

Maps for both referenda are online now, if anyone is interested.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #281 on: October 30, 2011, 05:05:00 PM »



http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2011-oireachtas-inquiries.html



http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2001-judges-renumeration.html

Donegal and Roscommon forming an unlikely alliance with Dublin 4 in being notably bolshie on the first of the referendums.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #282 on: October 31, 2011, 12:59:13 PM »

A bit of that on the second referendum, too, actually.

First map is hilariously uniform, really.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #283 on: October 31, 2011, 03:21:50 PM »

So Donegal is Sinn Féin country now, then? I suppose it was a matter of time.

Without meaning to brag, I have maps up for every presidential election. 1966 and 73 are very similar.

I can't include links yet but someone else here might be able to.

I've been reading your blog for a few months now. It's excellent stuff. Good work!
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #284 on: October 31, 2011, 05:49:34 PM »

So Donegal is Sinn Féin country now, then? I suppose it was a matter of time.

Donegal is non-conformist (at least where conformity implies the official "Dublin" mindset) and has been for some time. It was the only area to vote against Lisbon II but even before that it tended to take a more socially conservative stance on the various abortion and divorce referendums. Throw in the Morris Tribunal revelations about Garda behaviour there and a more general sense of alienation from a central government due to geographic isolation and perceived official indifference, and you end up with a county that "does different". Blaneyism arguably acted as a conduit whereby people in what had been a Fianna Fáil stronghold got used to not voting for "official" Fianna Fáil.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL_PXBt85rY

Roscommon's bolshiness is more recent and owes a lot to the hospital issue.

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ObserverIE
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« Reply #285 on: December 17, 2011, 08:47:48 PM »
« Edited: December 19, 2011, 04:13:33 PM by ObserverIE »



      Patrick Nulty - winner of the Dublin West by-election.

      First win by a Government party in a by-election since Galway East 1982.
      First gain by a Government party in a by-election since Monaghan, 1977.

      Bumping this to take account of developments since then...

      Nulty, along with two other TDs - Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath) and Tommy Broughan (Dublin North East) - has since been excluded from the Labour parliamentary party. Penrose, who was a "super junior" minister with the right to attend (but not vote at) Cabinet meetings, resigned over the closure of a military barracks in his constituency. Broughan voted against the Government over the renewal of guarantees to bondholders in the banks (an issue which Labour had trumpeted over the last few years as evidence of their good judgement and distance from "politics as usual"). Nulty voted against the rise in the higher rate of VAT from 23% to 25%. Both had the whip withdrawn and are now non-persons as far as Labour are concerned. (Interestingly, Willie Penrose - without whom Labour would have no significant presence in Westmeath - still exists.)

      Labour also seem to be hell-bent on self-immolation. Over the last month, they have:

      .
      [/list]

      The latest opinion poll released tonight by Behaviour & Attitudes gives:

      FG 30 (-7)
      SF 21 (+2)
      FF 20 (+5)
      Lab 11 (-4)
      Greens 3 (+1)
      Inds/Others 15 (+3)

      The overall Government approval rating is -43 (26/69).[/list]
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      Хahar 🤔
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      « Reply #286 on: December 18, 2011, 12:24:05 AM »

      Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.
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      Oakvale
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      « Reply #287 on: December 19, 2011, 04:51:43 PM »

      Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope. Wink

      Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.

      Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.

      Nah, instead the people will return to the loving embrace of Fianna Fáil after deciding that they're not so bad after all. Séan Gallagher nearly winning the Presidency's made me believe that, although I'm aware I'm being a little pessimistic, like some kind of Irish Beet.
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      minionofmidas
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      « Reply #288 on: December 19, 2011, 04:54:09 PM »

      Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope. Wink

      Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.

      Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.

      Nah, instead the people will return to the loving embrace of Fianna Fáil after deciding that they're not so bad after all. Séan Gallagher nearly winning the Presidency's made me believe that, although I'm aware I'm being a little pessimistic, like some kind of Irish Beet.
      "Irish Beet"? Interesting name for the potato. Azn
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      Oakvale
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      « Reply #289 on: December 19, 2011, 06:12:51 PM »

      Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope. Wink

      Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.

      Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.

      Nah, instead the people will return to the loving embrace of Fianna Fáil after deciding that they're not so bad after all. Séan Gallagher nearly winning the Presidency's made me believe that, although I'm aware I'm being a little pessimistic, like some kind of Irish Beet.
      "Irish Beet"? Interesting name for the potato. Azn

      I'd respond with something equally witty but I'm exhausted from the amount of spinning I had to do in that post. Tongue
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      Tetro Kornbluth
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      « Reply #290 on: December 19, 2011, 06:35:50 PM »

      Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope. Wink

      Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.

      Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.

      Nah, instead the people will return to the loving embrace of Fianna Fáil after deciding that they're not so bad after all. Séan Gallagher nearly winning the Presidency's made me believe that, although I'm aware I'm being a little pessimistic, like some kind of Irish Beet.

      I think the fact of Sean Gallagher has many meanings but in terms of Irish electoral politics, it just shows that while the FF "brand" is damaged, the essence is not. The 2011 election was a classic example of people trying to change things as that things stay the same. However, the brand might be tarnished for a while - I suggest the name change and another change of leader would be the best option for FF.

      Even so, I don't see the party of ever getting back to pre-2011 levels in Dublin. That a disaster for them of some nature or other there was something that was on the cards for a while and there is simply no room for recovery.
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      ObserverIE
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      « Reply #291 on: December 19, 2011, 07:01:18 PM »
      « Edited: December 19, 2011, 07:05:57 PM by ObserverIE »

      Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope. Wink

      Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.

      All the things I mentioned are Labour's own fault (though the disability cuts would have been approved by the whole cabinet - including the piously tut-tutting Blueshirts).

      Add to that a stagnating economy (unemployment now at 14.8%, GNP down -4.2% year-on-year in the 3rd quarter of 2011), a seemingly endless succession of flat-rate taxes and public service cuts, a government strategy on Europe that's seen as being supine and ineffective, cronyism in terms of party hacks being given special advisor jobs at six-figure salaries way above a supposed maximum, and an apparent determination by Merkozy to take the Eurozone into long-term recession (or at best stagnation), and prospects both for Labour - and more importantly for the rest of us - look bleak. Your only small consolation will be that FG will get an equal hammering.

      The fewest seats Labour have ever taken in a Dáil election is 7 (in 1932). That record could well be broken next time round.

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      2016 will be 22 years after the first IRA ceasefire and 19 years after it was reinstated. People may well be desperate enough by then to give Sinn Féin a chance.
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      Tetro Kornbluth
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      « Reply #292 on: December 19, 2011, 07:18:26 PM »

      Unless the Euro does collapse and a real apocalypse does occur that makes everything we have gone through so far a stubbed toe in comparison (certainly a possibility), I really don't think either Labour or FG will collapse in the same manner FF did. Simply because nobody can real blame FG or Lab for the disaster so they can play the "We don't want to do this, but TINA" role (Something FF could never sincerely do). In saying that, I didn't think the government would get this unpopular so fast. So maybe I'm talking from the wrong orifice...

      Btw, Taoiseach Gerry Adams, seriously?
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      ObserverIE
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      « Reply #293 on: December 19, 2011, 07:33:24 PM »

      Unless the Euro does collapse and a real apocalypse does occur that makes everything we have gone through so far a stubbed toe in comparison (certainly a possibility), I really don't think either Labour or FG will collapse in the same manner FF did. Simply because nobody can real blame FG or Lab for the disaster so they can play the "We don't want to do this, but TINA" role (Something FF could never sincerely do). In saying that, I didn't think the government would get this unpopular so fast. So maybe I'm talking from the wrong orifice...

      The cuts are going to get worse in future years - I've no doubt that Croke Park will be thrown on the bonfire next year or the year after as a sacrificial offering, but it's not going to be enough to prevent the dismantling of large parts of the public services. Fine Gael will, of course, insist on income tax staying where it is (it knows where its support base is). Labour will prove as willing to stand up to them as it has been up until now.

      The Euro compact, if it gets through, insists on member states reducing their debt/GDP ratio to 60%, which implies either significant growth or years of significant budget surpluses, i.e. austerity stretching to eternity. There is absolutely no sign of Germany being prepared to concede any debt restructuring. I doubt if we can rely on the German electorate dumping the CDU in 2013, and the peripheral economies may not last that long.

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      <shrugs> Taoiseach Mary Lou or Taoiseach Pearse Doherty, perhaps.

      If the alternative is Taoiseach Declan Ganley...?
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      Tetro Kornbluth
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      « Reply #294 on: December 19, 2011, 07:45:58 PM »
      « Edited: December 19, 2011, 07:53:37 PM by Pensando en volver »

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      Giving how crumbly the parliamentary Labour party has been so far.. (it must be a record), I doubt they can really continue like this. But then again I'm probably underestimating the sheer stupidity of the Irish parliamentary centre-left; something I should be inured to by now due to the experience of the Greens.

      In saying that, I have to agree with that analysis about the future. However, it remains to be seen how the government will deal with industrial action of any sort.

      I shall add, given that I come from my family who knows a quite a lot of people in their 50s or early 60s who work in civil service or public sector type jobs, the amount of people I know who are retiring this year is..... well, predictable.

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      Yeah. Real question is whether the government will even survive to 2015-2016.

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      We would have to reach the point where guns and liquor would be the same investment (and zombies armies would rule the earth) for those to be the only two choices. I suspect actually if a real big collapse happens, we simply see the country slide into ungovernability as local interests would become pre-dominant in a majority-less dail. More Wallaces and Flanagans, not more Declan Ganleys.

      Also, question of the role the ULA will play in the future...
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      ObserverIE
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      « Reply #295 on: December 19, 2011, 07:55:08 PM »
      « Edited: December 19, 2011, 07:57:56 PM by ObserverIE »

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      Giving how crumbly the parliamentary Labour party has been so far.. (it must be record), I doubt they can really continue like this. But then again I'm probably underestimating the sheer stupidity of the Irish parliamentary centre-left; something I should be inured to by now due to the experience of the Greens.

      In saying that, I have to agree with that analysis about the future. However, it remains to be seen how the government will deal with industrial action of any sort.

      I shall add, given that I come from my family who knows a quite a lot of people in their 50s or early 60s who work in civil service or public sector type jobs, the amount of people I know who are retiring this year is..... well, predictable.

      I'm well aware of the number of retirements myself; but no matter how many retirements there are, it's not going to stop the "we could keep this hospital/school/etc. open if only the greedy public servants didn't insist on being paid" campaign from the Sindo and Pat "Plank" Kenny.

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      Yeah. Real question is whether the government will even survive to 2015-2016.[/quote]

      Labour stuck in there through 1982-87 and, realistically, FG only need about 8 or so Labour TDs to remain to have an overall majority. (You could argue that Labour's tragedy is that its best election ever coincided with a government partner that barely needs it to govern alone and is at its most ideologically right-wing since the early 1930s.)

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      We would have to reach the point where guns and liquor would be the same investment (and zombies armies would rule the earth) for those to be the only two choices. I suspect actually if a real big collapse happens, we simply see the country slide into ungovernability as local interests would become pre-dominant in a majority-less dail. More Wallaces and Flanagans, not more Declan Ganleys.[/quote]

      I'm thinking of where the disaffected FG voters are going to go. Some of the FF converts from the last election may return to base, but the Newstalk listeners and Sindo readers may look for something more ideologically, say, robust. (Realistically, it's more likely to be someone from the right of FG or FF - Deasy or John McGuinness, perhaps - or a business type less obviously dodgy than the Squire of Abbeyknockmoy.)

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      That assumes they'll stay in one piece.
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      Tetro Kornbluth
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      « Reply #296 on: December 19, 2011, 08:13:09 PM »

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      YOU SHALL NOT MENTION THAT HATERAG "PAPER" IN THIS FORUM EVER AGAIN... EVER!!!!!!1111

      Seriously (kind of) though, when the CPA goes up in flames, I'm going to avoid the media pretty much for the whole epoch (though I hope by then I'll be out of the country, so I can avoid wanting to kill things).

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      But considering some of the controversy FG have gotten themselves into local issues (ie. Roscommon hospital closure) there is likely to be more leakage from FG itself. It certainly make a minority government pretty insecure (and god, who wants that?)

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      I think you are underestimating the incompetence of the Irish right. There is a reason why the feenahs have never had a significant rival to its right before (other than PDs, but given what happened to them, it's almost the exception that proves the rule).

      And Quite frankly, the Irish right vote has always gone for dodgy businessmen, I don't think dodgy-ness is the factor that has prevented Ganley's rise up the ranks.

      However, it is obvious that now is the moment for a real anti-EU party to form. That fact it hasn't shows at least something... (same the anti-immigration movement, the sentiment exists but the congealment glue does not... I suspect part of this might be down to the essential localism and local tribalism inherit in Irish politics which has allowed idealess parties to so prominent in the first place).

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      Indeed. That though applies at this point to practically every party other than SF and perhaps FF (assuming the worst does come to past). The ULA though is brittle for obvious reasons and their ridiculous populist stand on the household charge, well... reveals something about the Irish "left" which perhaps it is not too polite to say out loud.
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      patrick1
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      « Reply #297 on: December 19, 2011, 08:52:03 PM »

      Have there been any polls or is there a general sense of how a greater EU integration referendum would go?
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      Oakvale
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      « Reply #298 on: December 20, 2011, 10:46:16 AM »


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      « Reply #299 on: January 12, 2012, 12:58:21 PM »
      « Edited: January 12, 2012, 01:09:04 PM by ObserverIE »

      RedC for Paddy Power, taken Monday-Wednesday (changes since November)

      FG 33 (+1)
      FF 17 (-1)
      Lab 16 (+1)
      SF 14 (-1)
      Greens 3 (+1)
      Others 17 (-1)





      Red C has more of a record than Behaviours & Attitudes but is not as reliable as MRBI (it adjusts for likelihood to vote and consistently overstated FG in the run-up to the general election).
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