Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)
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Poll
Question: Which Gay do you support?
#1
Gay Mitchell
 
#2
Gay Byrne
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 10

Author Topic: Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)  (Read 84977 times)
patrick1
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« Reply #350 on: May 18, 2012, 10:30:04 PM »

The support for the Yes vote on most of these referenda is soft.   With spreads like those, light turnout could lead to a surprise No win. And then they will hold more votes until they get the result they want....
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #351 on: May 21, 2012, 09:09:16 AM »

To be honest, I don't think a lot of the "no" vote is any less soft.
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patrick1
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« Reply #352 on: May 21, 2012, 11:15:27 AM »

To be honest, I don't think a lot of the "no" vote is any less soft.

True, and it is quite a disparate "coalition"- I guess gaggle would be more accurate.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #353 on: May 25, 2012, 06:46:09 PM »

Ipsos/MRBI carried out between Wednesday and today:

Yes 39 (+9) No 30 (+7) Don't Know 22 (-17) Won't Vote 9 (+1)

In other news:

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http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0526/1224316733579.html
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #354 on: May 26, 2012, 12:14:09 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2012, 12:16:50 PM by ObserverIE »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

Yes 49 (-1) No 35 (+4) Don't know 16 (-3)

Millward Brown/Lansdowne for the Sunday Independent:

Yes 42 (+5) No 28 (+4) Don't know 31 (-8)

Behaviours & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

Yes 45 (+3) No 30 (+5) Don't know 25 (-8)
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The Mikado
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« Reply #355 on: May 26, 2012, 12:18:12 PM »

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?
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argentarius
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« Reply #356 on: May 26, 2012, 12:19:16 PM »

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?
They hate everyone. They could go in with FF technically who are RINOs.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #357 on: May 26, 2012, 12:39:59 PM »

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?
They hate everyone. They could go in with FF technically who are RINOs.

It's probably more accurate to say that the other parties hate them.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #358 on: May 27, 2012, 07:21:10 PM »
« Edited: May 27, 2012, 09:33:01 PM by ObserverIE »

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

SF would go into government with anyone who'd take them.
FG would have the most qualms about it; I think both FF or Labour could make such a deal if needs be.

SF might be more picky (or at least feel that they have the chance to be more picky) next time round.

Their ideal scenario would be that in 2015/16 where things are as bad (or worse) economically as they currently are (despite all the half-truths and general cac tairbh about employment, investment and stability being trotted out in the current referendum campaign) and they are facing three more-or-less equally-discredited "old parties", this would give them the chance to do a SYRIZA and say "we told you so". Their 2008 vote on the bank bailout would be very old news by then. (It's probably old news even now, not that Labour have realised.)

Either you then get a very chastened Labour and still-battered FF as junior partners in a "progressive alliance" (I don't see the ULA as being either able or willing to join a government), or, more likely, you see an "all hands to the tiller" coalition of the old establishment clinging on for dear life in the hope of something turning up.

(Have I mentioned before that I am deeply pessimistic about the future here?)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #359 on: May 27, 2012, 08:52:55 PM »
« Edited: May 27, 2012, 09:19:57 PM by ObserverIE »

Party standings:

Millward Brown/Lansdowne (changes in comparison to earlier this month):

FG 36 (+2)
SF 20 (+3)
FF 17 (-)
Ind/Others 13 (-3)
Lab 12 (-3)
Greens 1 (-)
United Left 1 (-)

RedC (changes in comparison with Paddy Power poll last week):

FG 30 (-2)
SF 19 (-1)
FF 18 (-)
Ind/Others/Greens/SP 18 (+1, Greens were at 2 last week)
Lab 15 (+2)

Ipsos/MRBI:

FG 32 (-1)
SF 24 (+3)
FF 17 (+3)
Ind/Others 15 (-2)
Lab 10 (-3)
Greens 2 (-)

Behaviour & Attitudes:

FG 33 (-)
Ind/Others 18 (-)
SF 17 (+1)
FF 16 (+1)
Lab 14 (-)
Greens 2 (-3)

(B&A now seem to be adjusting the bejazes out of their figures - unadjusted it's FG 33, SF 23, FF 17, Ind/Others 14, Lab 11, Greens 1).
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argentarius
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« Reply #360 on: May 28, 2012, 06:01:14 AM »

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #361 on: May 28, 2012, 07:43:11 AM »

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

I imagine people are well aware that they exist; it's just that they have no intention of voting for them.
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argentarius
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« Reply #362 on: May 28, 2012, 07:52:08 AM »

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

I imagine people are well aware that they exist; it's just that they have no intention of voting for them.
What I meant was they are nowhere to be seen during the referendum while everyone else has posters up.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #363 on: May 28, 2012, 12:45:19 PM »

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

I imagine people are well aware that they exist; it's just that they have no intention of voting for them.
What I meant was they are nowhere to be seen during the referendum while everyone else has posters up.

I think the leadership didn't get enough support at the party convention to take an official stand in support of the treaty (it required 2/3rds support and they got 60%).
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #364 on: May 29, 2012, 10:23:19 AM »

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

SF would go into government with anyone who'd take them.
FG would have the most qualms about it; I think both FF or Labour could make such a deal if needs be.

SF might be more picky (or at least feel that they have the chance to be more picky) next time round.

Their ideal scenario would be that in 2015/16 where things are as bad (or worse) economically as they currently are (despite all the half-truths and general cac tairbh about employment, investment and stability being trotted out in the current referendum campaign) and they are facing three more-or-less equally-discredited "old parties", this would give them the chance to do a SYRIZA and say "we told you so". Their 2008 vote on the bank bailout would be very old news by then. (It's probably old news even now, not that Labour have realised.)

Either you then get a very chastened Labour and still-battered FF as junior partners in a "progressive alliance" (I don't see the ULA as being either able or willing to join a government), or, more likely, you see an "all hands to the tiller" coalition of the old establishment clinging on for dear life in the hope of something turning up.

(Have I mentioned before that I am deeply pessimistic about the future here?)

That "pessimism" though hardly is an unrealistic analysis, we are talking about a situation where for the forseeable future (Oxymoron, surely?) the breakdown of the euro is much more likely than a return to Keltic-Tigah levels of growth.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #365 on: May 29, 2012, 11:28:29 AM »

Conceivably SF could work with any of the parties except FG, no?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #366 on: May 29, 2012, 11:32:31 AM »

Conceivably SF could work with any of the parties except FG, no?

Conceivably. But I think unlikely.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #367 on: May 29, 2012, 11:39:18 AM »

Early turnout news...
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #368 on: May 29, 2012, 01:03:11 PM »


Inishfree will not detain the tallymen for long on Friday.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #369 on: May 29, 2012, 01:10:11 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2012, 01:22:53 PM by ObserverIE »

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

SF would go into government with anyone who'd take them.
FG would have the most qualms about it; I think both FF or Labour could make such a deal if needs be.

SF might be more picky (or at least feel that they have the chance to be more picky) next time round.

Their ideal scenario would be that in 2015/16 where things are as bad (or worse) economically as they currently are (despite all the half-truths and general cac tairbh about employment, investment and stability being trotted out in the current referendum campaign) and they are facing three more-or-less equally-discredited "old parties", this would give them the chance to do a SYRIZA and say "we told you so". Their 2008 vote on the bank bailout would be very old news by then. (It's probably old news even now, not that Labour have realised.)

Either you then get a very chastened Labour and still-battered FF as junior partners in a "progressive alliance" (I don't see the ULA as being either able or willing to join a government), or, more likely, you see an "all hands to the tiller" coalition of the old establishment clinging on for dear life in the hope of something turning up.

(Have I mentioned before that I am deeply pessimistic about the future here?)

That "pessimism" though hardly is an unrealistic analysis, we are talking about a situation where for the forseeable future (Oxymoron, surely?) the breakdown of the euro is much more likely than a return to Keltic-Tigah levels of growth.

I see commentary from supposedly reputable economists pooh-poohing the effort required in reducing the debt/GDP ratio to 60% given "modest" nominal GDP growth estimates of 3.5% in a few years time and I wonder if they're in an alternate universe.

My suspicion is that we are going to be made pay dearly for Depfa and Hypo RealEstate. And given that our leaders seem to be intent on being the best little doormats in Europe, the only slim hope for this country is if something changes in the German federal elections next year.
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patrick1
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« Reply #370 on: May 31, 2012, 10:25:02 AM »

Anyone know when the votes will start to be counted? Tonight or tomorrow?
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argentarius
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« Reply #371 on: May 31, 2012, 11:59:58 AM »

Anyone know when the votes will start to be counted? Tonight or tomorrow?
Tomorrow morning. First to report will probably be some of the Dublin constituencies, and I guarantee last to report will be Donegal. They're very lazy.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #372 on: May 31, 2012, 12:05:51 PM »

I, like (apparently) many people can't work up the enthusiasm to bother voting on this thing. I was leaning "yes", my brother was leaning "no", so since we'd cancel each other out... Wink

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0531/breaking3.html?via=mr
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argentarius
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« Reply #373 on: May 31, 2012, 12:15:17 PM »

It will be interesting to see which constituency is most yes and which is most no. I think the yes title is once again between my home constituency, Dublin South, and our coastal neighbours, Dun Laoghaire, both constituencies being largely middle class paradises. The most "no" constituency is harder to predict, it could be Dublin North West, which is a working class hellhole which was the only constituency not to elect a Fine Gael TD, or Donegal South West, which elected a Sinn Fein TD and a de-facto Sinn Fein independent TD in the last election, but it's anyone's guess. Only Donegal northeast and southwest voted no to Lisbon 2.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #374 on: May 31, 2012, 01:27:14 PM »

It will be interesting to see which constituency is most yes and which is most no. I think the yes title is once again between my home constituency, Dublin South, and our coastal neighbours, Dun Laoghaire, both constituencies being largely middle class paradises. The most "no" constituency is harder to predict, it could be Dublin North West, which is a working class hellhole which was the only constituency not to elect a Fine Gael TD, or Donegal South West, which elected a Sinn Fein TD and a de-facto Sinn Fein independent TD in the last election, but it's anyone's guess. Only Donegal northeast and southwest voted no to Lisbon 2.

At a guess:

High Yes: Dublin South, Dún Laoghaire, Dublin South East, Cork South Central, Mayo (Mayo loves its Messiah), Dublin North, Kildare North, Wicklow

In short: upper-middle class Dublin and Cork and their more prosperous surrounds, along with the Enda-worshippers.

High No: Donegal North East, Donegal South West, Roscommon/South Leitrim, Dublin South Central, Cork North Central, Dublin South West, Dublin North West, Cavan/Monaghan

In short: working-class urban-dwellers and the more alienated areas west of the Shannon.

Overall guess: 62% Yes on a 47% turnout. People are more cynical than in Lisbon 2, but more frightened.
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