Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[minionofmidas]

Waterford on Norris
6 in favour
3 against
5 abstentions

Is that a nomination, or do abstentions count like nays?

[minionofmidas]

By looks alone, I would vote for the confused old don first, then the older Ulster schemie, then the younger one, then the guy who at least has a beard, then the women (the one on the right first, probably, the other looks so bland she's just got to have something to hide). The child-molesting parish priest last.
I read their wiki articles, and while the beard moves ahead of the younger schemie and the woman on the right is even more unelectable than the priest, not much changes all in all.
I seem to be a fairly good judge of character based on this sample.

[minionofmidas]

After an all too brief respite, I'm again developing "Fianna Fáil fatalism", where I glumly and resignedly accept that FF will almost always find a way to win an election. What better candidate for the highest office in the land than a third-rate television personality and gombeen businessman?

If you want to find a way to win an election right after that drubbing... probably no better type of candidate.
It also helps that he makes Davis look like a weak female milquetoast copy of himself, of course. What with the born blind stuff and all.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why? As long as he's rated above Gallagher and McGuinness on your ballot, it probably doesn't matter if he's first, second, third, fourth or fifth, no?

[minionofmidas]

Gallagher's candidacy rapidly turning into a hilarious trainwreck is fun to watch. I hope it's not too late.

McGuiness shall pip him on Higgins' transfers.

[minionofmidas]

A "listener poll"? With breakdowns for all the counties? Looks dodgy to me.

[minionofmidas]

What it means is "Labour has always been very weak up northwest".

[minionofmidas]

I, too, condemn SF for not condoning enough IRA executions of foreign (English) terrorists.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not Irish but I'd put McGuinness #1 and Higgins/Norris 2/3

We non-Irish seem to be more nationalist than the Irish.

My fantasy ballot (not changed due to recent Gallagher shenanigans)

1) Higgins
2) McGuinness
3) Norris
4) Gallagher

[minionofmidas]

It certainly looks from the Irish Times live blog that everyone thinks Higgins is going to win.  Norris has apparently conceded to him already.

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

I'd imagine that Labour's lead will only widen with transfers; is that right?

On FF, certainly. On the Socialists, likely but no certainty.

[minionofmidas]

It certainly looks from the Irish Times live blog that everyone thinks Higgins is going to win.  Norris has apparently conceded to him already.

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

I'd imagine that Labour's lead will only widen with transfers; is that right?

On FF, certainly. On the Socialists, likely but no certainty.

Labour though will get the vast bulk of the FG transfers so it won´t matter (though Coppinger will probably finish second due to SF transfers).

How about FF's transfer, should the Socialists pip them on transfers. Is it conceivable that Coppinger catches Nulty on those?

[minionofmidas]

I really doubt it. There will be a lot of non-transferables. The people who still vote FF are those people who think that having Sean Gallagher in the aras is a good idea and those people tend not to heavily preference trotskyites. (This is Brian Lenihan´s vote after all and as far as I know, he dominated in Castleknock, which is the posh end of this constituency).

Okay.

[minionofmidas]

They are out of government, and Labour is in. Why shouldn't they rebound just a tiny little bit?

[minionofmidas]

Some cool exit poll data.

Only 15% of those who vote FG in the last Dail election voted for Gay Mitchell. Higgins leads such voters with 40ish, and Gallagher is in second.
Gallagher not just won a majority of those who voted FF last time around (yeah well duh), but also came an easy first among those who voted FF in 2007.

And our first few by-constituency first count results.

1541 Dublin South-West RESULT: Higgins 40.1%; Gallagher 22%; McGuinness 16.6%; Norris 9.6%; Mitchell 6.5%; Davis 3.1%; Scallon 2.1%

1539 Dublin Mid-West RESULT: Higgins 40.3%; Gallagher 22.1%; McGuinness 15.9; Norris 10.2; Mitchell 6.5%; Davis 3.1; Scallon 2%

[minionofmidas]

[minionofmidas]

Kildare North RESULT: Higgins 45.8%; Gallagher 26.9%; McGuinness 8.8%; Norris 8.1%; Mitchell 5.5%; Davis 2.8%; Scallon 2.1%

Yeah, I get a feeling this count is going to be as dull as Gay Mitchell.

[minionofmidas]

Dublin West by-election FIRST COUNT: Patrick Nulty 8,665; David McGuinness 7,742; Ruth Coppinger 7,542; Eithne Loftus 5,263; Paul Donnelly 3,173; Roderic O'Gorman 1,787; Barry Ceasar Hunt 775; John Frank Kidd 311; Gerry Bermingham 185; Brendan Patrick Doris 95; Jim Tallon 73; Beeny Cooney 51; Peadar O Ceallaigh 40
Quota 17,852, so "9 and 5" was accurate.

Dublin West RESULT: Higgins 43.2%; Gallagher 24.1%; McGuinness 11.9%; Norris 10.1%; Mitchell 5.3%;
Davis 3.3%; Scallon 2%

Dublin South RESULT: Higgins 51.1%; Gallagher 20%; Norris 9.8%; Mitchell 7.3%; McGuinness 6.5%; Davis 3.3%; Scallon 2%

Gerry Adams said Michael D Higgins will be a fine President.
He will have Sean Gallagher's full support as President and Gallagher sincerely thanks him for a positive campaign.
Eamon Gilmore is thrilled that Michael D Higgins will be the next President of Ireland.

[minionofmidas]

Finally a result from Real Ireland.

Donegal North East RESULT: McGuinness 32.2%; Gallagher 28.2%; Higgins 23.1%; Scallon 6.7%; Mitchell 4.9%; Norris 2.8%; Davis 2.1%

Quite some discrepancies... not that Donegal is representative of rural Ireland, of course. (Cue second Lisbon referendum )

Also two more Dublin results. Yawnie.

[minionofmidas]

Right, you take over. Cork SW is the newest result. Higgins only barely trailing Gallagher.

[minionofmidas]

Right, you take over. Cork SW is the newest result. Higgins only barely trailing Gallagher.

I'll pass back to you in about 15/20 minutes when I have to go out.

Now looking as if Mitchell will manage to edge Norris on first preferences.

Sadly so, yeah.

And we'll have to find someone else... I'm going out right about the same time.

By-election count is continuing apace.

NULTY, Patrick    LAB       8665    8885    10186
COPPINGER, Ruth    SP       7542    7834    9368
McGUINNESS, David    FF        7742    7935    8720
LOFTUS, Eithne    FG    5263    5410    5942
DONNELLY, Paul    SF    3173    3309    -
O'GORMAN, Roderic    GP    1787    1925

Coppinger has been ever so marginally closing the gap so far, and has already overtaken McGuinness, but Loftus is to be eliminated next.

[minionofmidas]

I think it's safe to say that the 3rd and 4th would not have occurred to Irish lawmakers... and the second would have resulted in a different elimination... so clearly the law uses the first.

[minionofmidas]

"The Socialist Party had asked for a recount after she was found to be just 18 votes behind the Fianna Fáil candidate.

The recheck found errors in the transfer process bringing Ms Coppinger level.

But after consultation with both parties, returning officer John Fitzpatrick said he was eliminating Ms Coppinger under Section 122 of the Electoral Act which means the person with the highest first preference vote goes through."


Will they be releasing later counts by constituency?

[minionofmidas]

Will they be releasing later counts by constituency?

http://presidentialelection.ie/all_data.php

Go raibh maith agat!

[minionofmidas]

Norris map is very clean-looking, if predictable. Is Dana from Donegal - I assume Davis is from Mayo?
EDIT: Dana's from Derry. Well, close enough.

[minionofmidas]

Why aren't McGuinness and Mitchell eliminated alongside with Norris on count 2 ?

I think such a decision is at the returning officer's discretion.

Because if all of Norris' voters gave Mitchell their second preference, he'd keep his deposit.

Which opens the question of why the same wasn't done with the Green and SF vote in Dublin West, so I guess we're back at Jas' answer.

[minionofmidas]

But after consultation with both parties, returning officer John Fitzpatrick said he was eliminating Ms Coppinger under Section 122 of the Electoral Act which means the person with the highest first preference vote goes through."

For those so interested, section 122 of the Electoral Act.

So really, that ought to run "Section 122, Subsection 3".