Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

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David Norris. *cough*

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I still can't believe that Fine Gael are actually running Gay Mitchell as their candidate, BTW. He hasn't got a chance.

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Haha, Gay Mitchell.

Belgian - there was a poll (can't remember by who, but it was one of the fairly reputable ones) which had Labour at 20, with Fine Gael around 40, which is a pretty good result by both government parties.

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support.

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I wish Red C would distinguish between the ULA-ers and "others". I wish all polling companies would do that, actually.

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I'm cautiously predicting Higgins wins on transfers. Although someone bland and inoffensive like Davis could do well.

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Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times, sample 1000, carried out face-to-face on Monday and Tuesday (after the first debate on Friday night, but before last night's debate), changes from last poll in July:

Michael D. Higgins 23 (+5)
Seán Gallagher 20 (+7)
Martin McGuinness 19 (new)
Mary Davis 12 (-)
David Norris 11 (-14)
Gay Mitchell 9 (-11)
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 (new)

(In case anyone's wondering why the change figures don't add up, the last poll had Éamon Ó Cuív on 11).

More details at http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html.

My important and insightful commentary -

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Good performance in the debates, generally popular,  remains the clear favourite. Don't see him losing, but who knows?

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What? Oh, God, what? This is horrible news. I'd have thought Mary Davis would be the more popular of the two bland independents, but there you go. Ew. Ew. Ew.

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A little higher than I would have thought, but fits into the category of "good, but not good enough", which is probably how McGuinness will perform. Needless to say, he's pretty transfer unfriendly.

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Like I said, I'd expected Davis' and Gallagher's positions to be reversed, but meh. Respectable.

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I'm supporting Norris, so I'm disappointed, but not surprised. Considering there's been a fully-fledged media assault on his campaign along with a pretty poor performance in the debates, this isn't surprising.

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Hilarious.

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Dana has replaced Gay Mitchell as the creepiest candidate running, and this is reflected in her poll performance. Still slightly disturbing that 6% of people would vote for her, but okay.

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Apologies for the double post, but there's also apparently a new Red C poll out -

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Pretty much confirms the Irish Times poll.

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http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html
Not directly related, but excellent news!!!

edit - oh someone beat me too it.
Still!! I hope this is the start of real left-right split in Ireland.

If it means Sinn fein being the largest party on "the left" then I don´t want it.

This. Oh God, this.

e: There's been a lot of speculation that Sinn Féin's numbers will go down somewhat once the Presidential campaign's over and Martin McGuinness has gone home. There's probably some truth to that, although Sinn Féin seem to have succesfully sucked up a lot of the FF vote.

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I'd like to note for posterity that Dana has temporarily become the most talked-about candidate in the race.

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I'd like to note for posterity that Dana has temporarily become the most talked-about candidate in the race.

How's that?

Almost broke down in a debate while making a bizzare statement denying an "allegation" which she wouldn't specify. Two days later, it emerges that her brother (I think) is accused of child abuse.

It doesn't really matter since she's the fringiest of fringe candidates, but it was the most reported part of the debate. That and Martin McGuinness being relentlessly harangued (even though it was on RTÉ [/obscure Irish political in-joke]) by the moderator on his IRA past.

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There's allegedly new Red C figures up on Politics.ie. No confirmation on whether they're accurate yet, and done before the debates, where Gallagher got grilled quite a bit, so maybe he's peaked, but uh... Gallagher leads with 39%.

I am going to flee the country.

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Jesus wept. If Gallagher gets in it would be just typical. Gah.

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I think I´m going to return to my state of utter bafflement at the personality judgements (as well as other types of judgements) of the Irish people.

After an all too brief respite, I'm again developing "Fianna Fáil fatalism", where I glumly and resignedly accept that FF will almost always find a way to win an election. What better candidate for the highest office in the land than a third-rate television personality and gombeen businessman?

The one reason for optimism is that this poll was apparently taken before the Primetime debate in which Gallagher did fairly poorly, but I now fully expect us to have a Fianna Fáil President come November. Again.

EDIT: I'm also probably going having to switch my first preference to Higgins now. Oh well.

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New Red C poll. Yeah.

Gallagher 40% (+1)
Higgins 26% (-1)
McGuinness 13% (nc)
Norris 10% (+3)
Mitchell 6% (-2)
Dana 3% (+2)
Davis 2% (-1)

I'm planning a form of avant-garde protest, in which when Gallagher's announced the winner I'll set my house on fire and then shoot myself as an artistic statement.

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Behaviour & Attitudes are, IIRC, usually garbage, but those figures seem to align more or less with the Red C poll.

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Yeah, Gallagher did really awfully.

Gay Mitchell also threw a tantrum, not that it matters.

EDIT: Seriously though, that debate was great fun. Pity I didn't 't have any popcorn and the fact that Dublin's rapidly disappearing underwater means I couldn't go out and get any.

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Gallagher's candidacy rapidly turning into a hilarious trainwreck is fun to watch. I hope it's not too late.

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It's also taken yesterday, after a little-heard Newstalk radio debate.

Still, that might well end up being the actual results if Gallagher continues to furiously dig himself into a hole full of brown envelopes and dodgy insinuations.

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It looks like Gallagher's toast, but never underestimate the stubbornness of the gombeen people. There's probably a not-inconsiderable portion of the electorate who feel Gallagher's being bullied.

Okay, I'm being paranoid. Getting antsy. *paces*

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1. Norris
2. Higgins

So, effectively Higgins.

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Probably, but I'm almost certain there's been no exit polling done, so...

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Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope.

Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.

Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.

Nah, instead the people will return to the loving embrace of Fianna Fáil after deciding that they're not so bad after all. Séan Gallagher nearly winning the Presidency's made me believe that, although I'm aware I'm being a little pessimistic, like some kind of Irish Beet.

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Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope.

Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.

Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.

Nah, instead the people will return to the loving embrace of Fianna Fáil after deciding that they're not so bad after all. Séan Gallagher nearly winning the Presidency's made me believe that, although I'm aware I'm being a little pessimistic, like some kind of Irish Beet.

"Irish Beet"? Interesting name for the potato.

I'd respond with something equally witty but I'm exhausted from the amount of spinning I had to do in that post.

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Taoiseach Mary Lou

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I'd imagine the government parties are pretty happy with this poll, all things considered. Both Labour and Fine Gael are only a few points off their GE performance, and the Sinn Féin surge seems to have abated.