Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

ORIGINAL THREAD TITLE - Which Gay would you have voted for as President of Ireland?

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0814/martinm.html

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Norris is back in and 3 TD's away from a nomination.

Also, I can change the title of this if people want to discuss the election?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Norris is back in and 3 TD's away from a nomination.

TDs or Senators. It's hard though to figure out where those 3 nominations would come from. Shane Ross one presumes is gettable, but apart from that?

The county council option might still be a viable route though.

One could imagine him getting two more councils, and one more TD/Senator. (Someone said that if he got 19 that he'd be willing to be number 20) and not being able to make it.

When is the deadline anyway?

I'd figure people would be a little upset if that happened, and it would lead to reform in the nominating procedure.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Sort of on topic... Martin McGuiness is the Sinn Fein candidate, who is apparently "hated" by Gay Byrne. Any legit shot?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-15031025

I like McGuiness so I hope so, but he's likely very "transfer toxic" and would not win on any final ballot no matter who he was up against.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

First poll with all seven potential candidates (Millward Brown/IMS online for the Irish Independent, sample size 500, margin of error 4%)

David Norris 27%
Michael D. Higgins 18%
Martin McGuinness 15%
Mary Davis 15?%
Seán Gallagher 11%
Gay Mitchell 10%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 4%

McGuinness VS Norris (if that were the final ballot) Norris would win. McGuinness VS Higgins, Higgins wins. VS Davis, Davis wins, etc

How about Norris VS Higgins, or, Norris VS Davis?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What are general election polls at? Has Labour taken the right short-term decision by joining FG in government?

No, lemme get the link

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election#Opinion_polls

Anytime you want to find anything like this, type "wikipedia next general election ______" into google, and the answer will be there if anywhere.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support.

wtf.

If FF's best shot at some degree of relevance is to be the junior partner in a government coalition, and if the party continues to have no real ideology, doesn't that mean it's doomed to disappear?

They self-refer as Ireland's "Republican Party". SF is clearly Republican too. If SF can convince people they are not terrorists, FF could disappear.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Higgins should be the Labour guy ? Well, that's encouraging.

Given that he'd been in a comfortable lead until Norris re-entered the race, not so much.

Norris, if he were to be forced into a party, would be closer to Labour than any other, no?


Also, this:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0923/president1.html
Looks like the attacks are starting.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If the party gets below 10%, they risk not winning any seats due to the electoral system and their spread-out vote. That's more what I mean. I could see those centrist/left people going SF, but only if SF changes itself. The longer we get away from the Troubles, the more of a chance SF has to do better. The "problem" is that the more successful parties get, the more centrist voters they need to attract, the more centrist they become. Look at what happened to all the "Communist Politicians", MP's and such, in eastern Europe in 1987, and where they all were in 1992. Many of them were suddenly now right-wingers. That's because there was only one party, when you do have options, this happens to a lesser degree. By the time SF becomes electible to government, it will be different from the SF we know now. Think of how much the party has changed just during Adams term as leader.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The two ULA leaders (of their respective parties) hate one another.

Also, do you think there'll be any breakdowns by party in the polls? for example?

FG supporters
20% Gay
40% Norris
10% Higgins

SF supporters
50% McGuinness
30% Norris

Labour supporters
30% Higgins
30% Norris

etc etc etc

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Do you think there'd be any backlash if Norris does not manage a nomination?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times, sample 1000, carried out face-to-face on Monday and Tuesday (after the first debate on Friday night, but before last night's debate), changes from last poll in July:

Michael D. Higgins 23 (+5)
Seán Gallagher 20 (+7)
Martin McGuinness 19 (new)
Mary Davis 12 (-)
David Norris 11 (-14)
Gay Mitchell 9 (-11)
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 (new)

(In case anyone's wondering why the change figures don't add up, the last poll had Éamon Ó Cuív on 11).

More details at http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html.

I re-coloured it to match the fact that Gallagher was FF right up until being FF became unpopular

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Poll Averaging
Higgins 24
Sean 21
Martin 17
Norris 13
Gay 10
Davis 10
Dana 5

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Who did that poll? The graphic looks exactly like we get in Canada.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html
Not directly related, but excellent news!!!

edit - oh someone beat me too it.
Still!! I hope this is the start of real left-right split in Ireland.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What do you have against SF?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Unlike this forum, people are allowed to discuss the IRA in Ireland, and I am not alone in my feelings about who the "wrong" side in the IRA VS UK war was. While 50%+1 in Ireland will disagree with me, and prevent McGuinness from winning, I am confidant that he would take 35%-40% if he were on a final ballot with Gay Mitchell.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Is Higgins still looking on course to win?

I think I'd vote something like 1. Higgins 2. Norris 3. Davis.

From what I've seen, Higgins looks like a great person. I'd probably put him #1 as well. I think that with the controversial around Norris and McGuinness, that there's a good chance that many others would agree with me, and, that if the final ballot were Higgins-Norris or Higgins-McGuinness, that Higgins would win easily. The only problem for him is if Gallagher gets to the final ballot

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

To me, it's Gallagher VS Higgins. The horserace is on.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Why is Gallagher not reported as the FF Candidate? He only quit FF when FF stopped being cool.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

So who gets more transfers on a Gallagher-Higgins final ballot?

Specifically who gets McGuinness' transfers

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to this map



Gallagher is stronger/est up in the North. Where McGuinness does well, Gallagher does well. This means one of two things:

McGuinness voters would naturally go for Higgins, which is why Gallagher is so strong in comparison.

or

McGuinness voters are torn between him ad Gallagher.

Whichever one is true will determine the winner

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

So if Higgins is the most transfer friendly, how high can Gallagher get on the first ballot and still lose?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Seems to me like Higgins still has the edge then

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

To the Irish members of this board:
Who are YOU voting for?