Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[ObserverIE]

I still can't believe that Fine Gael are actually running Gay Mitchell as their candidate, BTW. He hasn't got a chance.

I've thought for near years now that they'd nominate McGuinness and that she'd win.
The whole we must nominate the most Fine Gael-est candidate we can find bit was rather odd.

The short answer is that the election result has gone to their heads (or at least to the heads of the parliamentary party and national executive; McGuinness won among the city and county councillors in the electoral college).

They seem to believe that what happened in February was not primarily a rejection of Fianna Fáil's economic mismanagement; instead they think that the electorate have collectively fallen in love with Fine Gael and with all of their predilections, prejudices and general historical baggage.

[ObserverIE]

First poll with all seven potential candidates (Millward Brown/IMS online for the Irish Independent, sample size 500, margin of error 4%)

David Norris 27%
Michael D. Higgins 18%
Martin McGuinness 15%
Mary Davis 15?%
Seán Gallagher 11%
Gay Mitchell 10%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 4%

[ObserverIE]

Higgins should be the Labour guy ? Well, that's encouraging.

Given that he'd been in a comfortable lead until Norris re-entered the race, not so much.

[ObserverIE]

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support.

wtf.

If FF's best shot at some degree of relevance is to be the junior partner in a government coalition, and if the party continues to have no real ideology, doesn't that mean it's doomed to disappear?

They self-refer as Ireland's "Republican Party". SF is clearly Republican too. If SF can convince people they are not terrorists, FF could disappear.

FF is traditionally a centrist party:

• cross-class appeal, although traditionally strong among smaller farmers and the urban working and lower middle classes, and weaker among the established, "old money" middle classes, and with a self-image of being outside the establishment,
• economically centrist and trade union-friendly although moderately socially conservative on sexual issues,
• fairly nationalist on Northern Ireland/Irish unity.

If it has an international parallel, it might be the Canadian Liberal Party...

Sinn Féin would be further to the left economically and its organisation on the ground is very weak in a lot of places. The memories of 69-94 would also be offputting to older voters. In short, I can't see it happening on a wide scale. I expect them to hold on and possibly recover a bit outside Greater Dublin. On the other hand, I didn't expect the scale of the clusterf**k over the Presidential election.

As far as the opinion polls go, 10% just strikes me as being too low at the moment. I'd think their current level of support is about 15% (at least before the aforementioned clusterf**k). The fact that Labour are in a government which is likely to be unpopular in the longer term, rather than leading the opposition, gives them some sort of a chance of recovery.

[ObserverIE]

First poll with all seven potential candidates (Millward Brown/IMS online for the Irish Independent, sample size 500, margin of error 4%)

David Norris 27%
Michael D. Higgins 18%
Martin McGuinness 15%
Mary Davis 15?%
Seán Gallagher 11%
Gay Mitchell 10%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 4%

McGuinness VS Norris (if that were the final ballot) Norris would win. McGuinness VS Higgins, Higgins wins. VS Davis, Davis wins, etc

How about Norris VS Higgins, or, Norris VS Davis?

The number of eliminations and transfers required will make things complex. The big caveat about these assumptions is that they're based on the current levels of support.

Scallon's vote represents a very socially-conservative (though not necessarily economically right-wing) base. I don't see much of it going to Norris or McGuinness and very little to Higgins. The remainder should favour Mitchell over Gallagher or Davis, though perhaps not by enough to save him from the next elimination.

Mitchell's vote represents the most hard-core, traditionalist part of the Fine Gael base - authoritarian both socially and on law and order issues, hostile to Irish nationalism, economically right-wing, viscerally anti-Fianna Fáil for reasons long predating Haughey or Ahern. Some will go to Higgins as a coalition partner, some may go to Norris as a perceived way of stopping McGuinness. Gallagher's business background might make him superficially attractive, but his Fianna Fáil links would tell against him, so I'd see Davis as being the main beneficiary.

Gallagher's vote would probably favour Davis as a fellow independent (and the most likely other recipient of the "culturally Fianna Fáil" vote) moreso than Norris. McGuinness and Higgins would get smaller portions of the vote.

At this point, you're probably looking at an order of Norris-Davis-Higgins-McGuinness. McGuinness's anti-establishment vote would be most likely to go to Norris, the consciously left-wing portion would go to Higgins, and the nationalist/republican/ex-FF part would largely go to Davis and Higgins.

This might move Higgins ahead of Davis, and I'd expect her votes to favour Higgins over Norris. I'd also expect Higgins' votes - once you factor in transfers received - to marginally favour Davis over Norris, but not by enough to stop Norris.

[ObserverIE]

Higgins should be the Labour guy ? Well, that's encouraging.

Given that he'd been in a comfortable lead until Norris re-entered the race, not so much.

Norris, if he were to be forced into a party, would be closer to Labour than any other, no?

He'd be close to the middle-class, secular liberal wing of Labour; I'm not sure how really economically left-wing he is (but then much the same can be said about the Labour Party these days...).

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That's Fine Gael being Fine Gael, and in particular Gay Mitchell being Gay Mitchell. The more people see or hear of Mitchell, the lower his vote is likely to go. In any case, portraying yourself as the anti-Shinner candidate is pointless when it doesn't look as if the Shinner is likely to win and you yourself are in sixth place out of seven

[ObserverIE]

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support.

wtf.

If FF's best shot at some degree of relevance is to be the junior partner in a government coalition, and if the party continues to have no real ideology, doesn't that mean it's doomed to disappear?

cough, cough, blatant plug, cough, cough.

I'll make two immediate quibbles about that posting, although most of it is sound enough:

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Up until the 1970s and the arrival of Garret FitzGerald at the helm of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil would arguably have been the less closely associated of the two main parties with craven obeisance to the RCC, and from personal observation I don't see much correlation between church attendance and political loyalties.

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It may have been a factor in working-class areas, but an equally important factor was the memory of Fianna Fáil being the party of social reform (urban housing schemes and slum clearance in the 1930s, the introduction of free secondary education, improvements in social welfare and pensions) and the fact that the party traditionally got on quite well with trade unions, as opposed to the cold hostility received from Fine Gael. Labour were starting from a weak base and up until 1992 were always committed to supporting coalitions in which Fine Gael would be the dominant partner.

[ObserverIE]

There is no FF candidate?

Nope. At least not officially.

One of their MEPs, Brian Crowley, has been interested in running for a long time and Éamon Ó Cuív, grandson of de Valera, cabinet minister until February and self-appointed guardian of the traditional soul of FF, was also interested in running.

After the election defeat, the leadership's inclination was not to run an official candidate; an election campaign would have cost money the party no longer had with no chance of success. Then it emerged that Gay Byrne had been contacted by the party leader to run as an independent candidate with party support. This put the noses of the prospective party candidates out of joint, and they were knocked further out of joint when Byrne eventually declined.

Crowley eventually said that he wouldn't run, but there were a number of fractious meetings over whether to run a candidate, whether to allow TDs or Senators to lend support to other indepedent candidates, or to abstain from the nomination process altogether. The decision made two weeks ago, after reported threats of resignation from Ó Cuív (newly appointed as party deputy leader), was to abstain.

Then last week, with the renewed mention of a Norris candidacy and the expected arrival of McGuinness into the race, one of the FF Senators (many of whom are p'd off with the party leader because he tried to dump them in favour of (relatively) newer (relatively) shinier models) decided that he wanted to run as an independent candidate. After a couple of days of speculation, another fractious meeting was held at which the party leader got his way and there will be no FF candidate.

However...

Of the independent candidates, Gallagher (a panellist on the Irish edition of Dragon's Den) was a member of the Fianna Fáil National Executive until late last year and was briefly mentioned last year as a possible FF general election candidate in Louth, and Davis has a number of ex-FF backroom staff working on her campaign.

[ObserverIE]

RedC poll for the Sunday Business Post, sample:1000

With only the five candidates officially nominated so far:

Michael D. Higgins 27
Martin McGuinness 20
Mary Davis 20
Gay Mitchell 18
Seán Gallagher 15

With all eight(!) potential candidates:

David Norris 21
Michael D. Higgins 18
Martin McGuinness 16
Mary Davis 13
Gay Mitchell 13
Seán Gallagher 11
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6
Labhrás Ó Murchú 1

Party support

FG 33 (down 8 since RedC's last poll in May)
Lab 16 (down 3)
FF 15 (down 1)
SF 15 (up 4)
Greens 2
Others 19 (up 8 )

RedC has tended to slightly overstate FG support in the past.

http://guthanphobail.net/index.htm (in Irish but the basics should be clear).

[ObserverIE]

I wish Red C would distinguish between the ULA-ers and "others". I wish all polling companies would do that, actually.

While I agree, the ULA are still officially two separate organisations, and I don't see the local affiliates of the CWI and the IS agreeing a merger soon. Indeed, I wonder how long it will be before we see a bust-up between the two. But either has more seats than the fecking Green Party.

There's also the question of how distinct the general public view the ULA as being from the likes of Wallace, McGrath, and other left-wing independents.

[ObserverIE]

The two ULA leaders (of their respective parties) hate one another.

Also, do you think there'll be any breakdowns by party in the polls? for example?

FG supporters
20% Gay
40% Norris
10% Higgins

SF supporters
50% McGuinness
30% Norris

Labour supporters
30% Higgins
30% Norris

etc etc etc

The accompanying comment article in the paper (not online) says that Mitchell is attracting only a quarter of FG voters and that Norris, when added, gets almost as many from that party. No other details provided.

[ObserverIE]

South Dublin (which is actually Tallaght/Rathfarnham/Lucan/Clondalkin in case anyone actually knows Dublin geography) has voted 12-11 not to support Norris.

[ObserverIE]

Do you think there'd be any backlash if Norris does not manage a nomination?

I would expect it to create more cynicism about the political system if the candidate who hasn't a hope in hell of winning (Dana) gets through while a candidate who has significant support (though he won't win) gets blocked.

[ObserverIE]

Donegal says Aye to Dana.

[ObserverIE]

Dana and Norris now on three each.

Westmeath and Offaly vote on Dana at 2. FG aren't strong enough on either of those councils to block her on their own (and in any case the negative votes are being aimed at Norris).

According to a Longford councillor on RTÉ radio this morning (4:30 in in the first clip), there are motions there to nominate both Dana and Norris, and if Dana already has four nominations by 4 o'clock, they may discuss Norris's nomination instead. However, FG hold 10 seats out of 21 in Longford so it may not get through anyway.

[ObserverIE]

Offaly supports Dana, giving her the fourth council she needed.

Westmeath votes down Dana 10-9 but it doesn't matter at this stage.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times, sample 1000, carried out face-to-face on Monday and Tuesday (after the first debate on Friday night, but before last night's debate), changes from last poll in July:

Michael D. Higgins 23 (+5)
Seán Gallagher 20 (+7)
Martin McGuinness 19 (new)
Mary Davis 12 (-)
David Norris 11 (-14)
Gay Mitchell 9 (-11)
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 (new)

(In case anyone's wondering why the change figures don't add up, the last poll had Éamon Ó Cuív on 11).

More details at http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times, sample 1000, carried out face-to-face on Monday and Tuesday (after the first debate on Friday night, but before last night's debate), changes from last poll in July:

Michael D. Higgins 23 (+5)
Seán Gallagher 20 (+7)
Martin McGuinness 19 (new)
Mary Davis 12 (-)
David Norris 11 (-14)
Gay Mitchell 9 (-11)
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 (new)

(In case anyone's wondering why the change figures don't add up, the last poll had Éamon Ó Cuív on 11).

More details at http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html.

My important and insightful commentary -

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Good performance in the debates, generally popular,  remains the clear favourite. Don't see him losing, but who knows?

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What? Oh, God, what? This is horrible news. I'd have thought Mary Davis would be the more popular of the two bland independents, but there you go. Ew. Ew. Ew.

He comes across as amiable and normal - how much substance there is is another matter - and he hasn't engaged in or been the subject of a lot of the mudslinging mainly emanating from Mount Street (FG HQ) and Talbot Street (Independent Newspapers HQ).

[ObserverIE]

Norris's campaign seems over in practice. He can't even get good press in the Times. The stream of stories on Mary Davis's quango background seems to have at best stalled and at worst derailed her campaign.

Gallagher benefits as the only independent with pretty solid media credibility left, and from what seems to have been a non-controversial campaign so far.

Where will all those Mitchell and Davis transfers go?

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While it's more than well-deserved (for both Mitchell himself and for the clowns who've been "cheerleading"), I think Norris and Davis will be in his rear-view mirror. It will be a question of who falls fastest by the 27th.

[ObserverIE]

Who did that poll? The graphic looks exactly like we get in Canada.

http://redcresearch.ie/about

[ObserverIE]

Are they linked to Commies, or it is a rather strange name choice?

Commies? ROFL.

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Morkeshing bullsh**t.

[ObserverIE]

Party support from the MRBI poll (changes from last poll in July):

FG 35 (-3)
SF 18 (+8.)
Lab 17 (-1)
FF 16 (-2)
Greens 2 (-)
Others 12 (-2)

[ObserverIE]

RedC carried out on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (sample 1,000, changes since last RedC poll):

Gallagher 39% (+18%)
Higgins 27% (+2%)
McGuinness 13% (-3%)
Mitchell 8% (-2%)
Norris 7% (-7%)
Davis 4% (-5%)
Scallon 2% (-3%)

[ObserverIE]

There's allegedly new Red C figures up on Politics.ie. No confirmation on whether they're accurate yet, and done before the debates, where Gallagher got grilled quite a bit, so maybe he's peaked, but uh... Gallagher leads with 39%.

I am going to flee the country.

The way I look at it is this:

Dana has imploded and is now coming across as being as firmly connected to reality as Mother Bernadette Sinéad Jah O'Connor.

Davis hasn't so much imploded as developed a slow puncture. Running what looks to be an extremely well-financed campaign and describing one of our would-be oligarchs as your "mentor" is not going to win you the non-/anti-politics vote.

Norris has descended into self-parody mode and has turned the dial on the Queeny Joycean Scholar schtick up to 11. It may well appeal to the hipster vote in Dublin but it passes by everyone else.

Mitchell is a horrible candidate who has run a horrible campaign aided and abetted by the arrogant jackass wing of his own party, and has alienated all but his own ultras as a result. (And the fact that the ultras are in single percentage figures should make the Fine Gael hierarchy fear what might be coming down the line at the next general election.)

McGuinness has been subjected to an over-the-top campaign by the broadcast and national print media, which might well get him some of the "f*** you" vote on election day, but there's still an upper limit on the SF vote by those who remember 69-94 even if they don't share the foaming-at-the-mouth stance of the Sunday Independent & Co.

Higgins has performed well, but being the de facto government candidate won't benefit him and in the TV3 debate he may have looked distinguished but he also looked old.

I'm not personally impressed by Gallagher, I don't think he'll make a particularly good President, but I can see how he's picking up the "best of a bad lot" vote beyond just the ex-FF base. I don't see him being beaten at this stage.

[ObserverIE]

There's allegedly new Red C figures up on Politics.ie. No confirmation on whether they're accurate yet, and done before the debates, where Gallagher got grilled quite a bit, so maybe he's peaked, but uh... Gallagher leads with 39%.

I am going to flee the country.

Higgins has performed well, but being the de facto government candidate won't benefit him and in the TV3 debate he may have looked distinguished but he also looked old.

Is Michael D one of those guys like Wilford Brimely who came out of the womb looking old?  I was pretty surprised he is only 70.

He's always had that hairstyle for as long as I can remember, although the colour used to be a reddish-brown.



It matters, I think, that he also looks older than the others in the same age group - Norris is only a couple of years younger but is well-preserved in comparison, McGuinness is about a decade behind him but looks much younger, Davis has done a reverse Dorian Gray with her posters, and Mitchell - well, you know what they say about the undead...

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http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/SBP-President-Poll-Report-16th-Oct-2011.pdf

MRBI also does regional/age-group/social class breakdowns, because the Irish Times polling analysis refers to them in the accompanying articles, but they aren't published.