Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[argentarius]

I want to see Sinn Féin top the poll at the next election. It would be fascinating.

Hopefully I will be out of the country by then. I don't think they'll top the poll though. They always seem to overpoll before elections and go down throughout the campaign.

With regards to the referendum, I'll vote no.

[argentarius]

That is one of the strangest polls I've ever seen. SF support up yet treaty support up too? Very strange. Typically in elections the treaty loses popularity, the last contested referendum we had it was at like 80% a week beforehand but still went down 60:40.

[argentarius]

Paddypower, the main Irish betting company has yes at 1/6 right now. Famously they paid out on a yes vote for the first Lisbon on a rumour of a landslide victory but it's not looking good at all for the no side.

[argentarius]

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

They hate everyone. They could go in with FF technically who are RINOs.

[argentarius]

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

[argentarius]

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

I imagine people are well aware that they exist; it's just that they have no intention of voting for them.

What I meant was they are nowhere to be seen during the referendum while everyone else has posters up.

[argentarius]

Anyone know when the votes will start to be counted? Tonight or tomorrow?

Tomorrow morning. First to report will probably be some of the Dublin constituencies, and I guarantee last to report will be Donegal. They're very lazy.

[argentarius]

It will be interesting to see which constituency is most yes and which is most no. I think the yes title is once again between my home constituency, Dublin South, and our coastal neighbours, Dun Laoghaire, both constituencies being largely middle class paradises. The most "no" constituency is harder to predict, it could be Dublin North West, which is a working class hellhole which was the only constituency not to elect a Fine Gael TD, or Donegal South West, which elected a Sinn Fein TD and a de-facto Sinn Fein independent TD in the last election, but it's anyone's guess. Only Donegal northeast and southwest voted no to Lisbon 2.

[argentarius]

Looks like I got my constituency prediction spot on. I'm a little disappointed by the result, but I wasn't really that interested.