Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[patrick1]

There's allegedly new Red C figures up on Politics.ie. No confirmation on whether they're accurate yet, and done before the debates, where Gallagher got grilled quite a bit, so maybe he's peaked, but uh... Gallagher leads with 39%.

I am going to flee the country.

Higgins has performed well, but being the de facto government candidate won't benefit him and in the TV3 debate he may have looked distinguished but he also looked old.

Is Michael D one of those guys like Wilford Brimely who came out of the womb looking old?  I was pretty surprised he is only 70.

Anyone know if there are any polls that have a regional breakdown?

[patrick1]

Jeez, I don't think Ive ever seen a debate that focused so much on the polls and the campaign itself.

Very efficient take down of Gallagher by McGuinness.

[patrick1]

Gallagher whinging on the radio this morning that all the hard questions last night were part of a Sinn Féin conspiracy and hinting that the businesswoman who'd asked him about the money resting in his account was also politically involved.

At which point the said businesswoman rang the radio show from her car and started asking more awkward questions.

Car crash radio.

Yeah, been following some of the play by play over at politics.ie.   Gallagher is not doing himself any favors and his tactic of going after Sinn Fein will backfire- transfers.   Gallagher is effectively being linked to the FF culture of corruption and cronyism. For a largely ceremonial office, the election of SG would really send the wrong message. I'd have to think that Michael D. will win this.

[patrick1]

Gallagher's campaign had previously claimed that he never solicited money for FF.  In the early part of the debate McGuinness said that Gallagher was up to his neck in FF and their dealings and that he had spoken to a businessman who said Gallagher had personally collected a check of 5000 euro on behalf of FF.

The 2:34 mark is where he puts the foot in his mouth by collecting envelopes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTMzZAtlLt4

The fact is that I dont think this story to be particularly bad in and of itself.  However, he has been so desperate to keep the FF stink off him that he has now been caught in a series of lies. Through several of his dealings and his political activity it is clear that he was caught up in the cronyism and basic corrupt political culture.

Additionally there are questions about an 80,000 euro loan that he paid to himself from his own companies funds.  Gallagher claims this to be honest mistake.

[patrick1]

So who gets more transfers on a Gallagher-Higgins final ballot?

Specifically who gets McGuinness' transfers

Given that Gallagher is now trying to out-Mitchell Gay Mitchell in terms of shroud-waving and making allegations of dark Shinner plots to do him down, I think we can make an educated guess who won't get them.

Yeah, I had a long post that timed out making that point. He also clumsily made allusion to sinister forces along the border.   Like he is from there and it struck me as really tone deaf. Listening to Gallagher's Pat Kenny radio interview,  I found it a inarticulate bunch of rambling nonsense.  Chock full of contradictions and malapropisms.  IMO, Gallagher is sunk and I think Higgins wins this easily.

After these past two days you will not see the transfers. It is in Sinn Fein's interest to defeat any FF or their proxy candidates. McGuinness never had a path and still does not to win this.  However, you have to go out there and attempt to broaden your appeal and remain relevant on a 32 county level.  This will help the strategy of being the main opposition party.

Lastly, on that map.   Gallagher would have to do better where people actually live.  Like Leitrim has what 12,000 votes?

[patrick1]

It was my understanding that a large amount of Gallagher's support was coming from traditional FG voters.  I would hope that they have bailed after seeing how tied up in FF Gallagher actually was and go toward Higgins.

As an interloping American I would go

McGuinness
Michael D

Davis
Norris
Mitchell
Dana
Gallagher

[patrick1]

[reposted from another place]

Unconfirmed alleged exit poll:
Sean Gallagher 32%
Michael D Higgins 27%
Martin McGuinness MP MLA 20%
Senator David Norris 11%
Gay Mitchell MEP 6%
Mary Davis 2%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 2%

Hmm, yeah saw that quoted and see its from  irishcentral.com .... which is an Irish American website.  It doesnt say anything about where it comes from or who conducted etc.

There are a lot of things floating around so I would say take that with a grain of salt.

[patrick1]

I think Higgins will top first preference by a decent margin and run away with this. 

Interested to see what results will be on referendum- which are more important.

[patrick1]

I thought with Gallaghers decline that Mitchell and Norris would pick up some support but from vote leaking out they are both doing horribly.  Martin McGuinness #'s look to be pedestrian (17%?) but more than enough for 3rd.

[patrick1]

68% of boxes now open in Dublin West. Tallies: Nulty Lab 25%, McGuinness FF 22%, Coppinger SOC 20%, Loftus FG 15%, Donnellly SF 8%, O Gorman GP 5%

[patrick1]

So overall it looks like something like

Higgins 40%
Gallagher 28%
McGuinness 13%
Norris 6.5%
Mitchell 6.5%
Dana  3%
Davis 3%

[patrick1]

Wasnt Gallagher getting beat 2-1 in a lot of parts of Louth.  I know he was losing his hometown of Blackrock by that margin.

I thought McGuinness, Mitchell and Norris did worse than I thought they would by a few percentage points. I thought Higgins would have been around 35 than 40.  Gallagher is right around where I thought he would be.

[patrick1]

Higgins has had this in the bag since monday night, teddy.  Gallagher wilted under scrutiny.  The one thing I'm surprised at if that most everyone who jumped ship all broke for higgins.  Martin did a good job taking sg down but that didn't ttranslate into votes.

 

[patrick1]

I havent watched Father Ted in a decade so I didnt really get the reference.

After following Gallagher recently I don't think he was capable of any humor- embarrassing or otherwise.  He just spouted out a bunch of platitudes and nonsense really.  Ive never seen his reality show but I can't fathom what he brings to the table.  Scratch the surface of his supposed business acumen and you just find shady deals helped by politicos.

Anyway, glad Michael D pulled it off. He is a bit of a windbag and getting older but it is not really a high impact job. I am disappointed that McGuinness was unable to bring in more support. I am glad he ran but it is time for the younger generation to start taking a more marquee role.

[patrick1]

Have there been any polls or is there a general sense of how a greater EU integration referendum would go?

[patrick1]

First government campaign pro-treaty video launched:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TZfzAOooEOU

...eh, sorry, I meant this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NyqHTJ3h90U

Easy to get mixed up with those non-threatening regional accents...

Haha, hilarious.

[patrick1]

Irish opponents of Europe’s fiscal treaty are drawing inspiration from Athens and Paris as voters across Europe rebel against austerity.
The Irish hold a referendum on the treaty on May 31, after Greek and French voters rejected candidates promoting budget cuts to help solve the euro-region debt crisis. While opinion polls show the “yes” side ahead, that was also the case before previous unsuccessful plebiscites in Ireland.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-08/ireland-s-treaty-opponents-gain-anti-austerity-ammunition.html

I'll be keeping an eye out for the next poll. I'd like to think the margins would narrow

[patrick1]

The support for the Yes vote on most of these referenda is soft.   With spreads like those, light turnout could lead to a surprise No win. And then they will hold more votes until they get the result they want....

[patrick1]

To be honest, I don't think a lot of the "no" vote is any less soft.

True, and it is quite a disparate "coalition"- I guess gaggle would be more accurate.

[patrick1]

Anyone know when the votes will start to be counted? Tonight or tomorrow?

[patrick1]

Louth - Yes 52% No 47%
Clare - Yes 65% No 45%
Tipperary North - Yes 64% No 36%

Thanks for the tally Jas.   

Is Clare 35% No?

[patrick1]

Oh dear...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,15987594,00.html

Haha,  I think Enda would answer to any name that a German wants to call him. And if his surname was actually Kennedy they may even pay attention to him.

As for the vote, there is nothing really surprising. Perhaps a stronger yes vote in several constituencies than I would have thought.  One more rubber stamp for the loss of more sovereignty- although sadly some technocrat in Brussels will probably do a better job at governing....

[patrick1]

Given the overall tally, I'm kind of surprised that Leix-Offaly was very slightly below the national average. From my general perception I'd think it would have been around the 62-63% level.  
Small number of dissatisfied commuters or holders of vacant properties?

[patrick1]

Given the overall tally, I'm kind of surprised that Leix-Offaly was very slightly below the national average. From my general perception I'd think it would have been around the 62-63% level.  
Small number of dissatisfied commuters or holders of vacant properties?

Much more straightforward; it's the reverse of Mayo's Enda-worship. Biffo Cowen is no longer Taoiseach so his constituents feel no need for loyalty.

Yeah, I thought that could have something to do with it but the Kings and Queens are still rural right? The scare tactics seem to work well on the muckers...