WI-PPP: Tommy Thompson, Mark Neumann dominating non-Feingold candidates

[krazen1211]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0818424.pdf

Now Neumann tops Ron Kind, 43-40; Tammy Baldwin, 44-40; and Steve Kagen, 45-38,
while trailing Feingold, 51-44.

Thompson lags Feingold only 48-47, a closure of nine points in three months. But he leads Kind, 48-41 (up seven); Baldwin, 50-42 (up seven); and Kagen, 49-41 (up five).



Hopefully Feingold stays out and we can nab a 2nd senate seat.

[DrScholl]

Even if he makes it out of the primary (which is debatable), most of his opponents are not that known, but still pull into the 40s, that's a lot of room for change.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Note that the other 2 candidates have little name recognition.

[TheGlobalizer]

Interesting to see Republicans gaining ground in WI despite the vitriolic union goings-on.

[DrScholl]

They haven't gained ground until they've actually gained something and it's a year out from the election. And Thompson strength is more based his own past record than anything to do with the unions or the current situation.

[Miles]

Tom Jensen:

"The timing of both Wisconsin polls we've done since Kohl's retirement announcement has been a little odd. The first was done just a couple weeks after the killing of Osama bin Laden and may have represented somewhat of a high point for Democrats. This one was done the same weekend that we nationally found a record low approval rating for Barack Obama. So unless Obama's numbers continue to get worse, this may be something of a high point for the Republicans. "

[krazen1211]

Tom Jensen:

"The timing of both Wisconsin polls we've done since Kohl's retirement announcement has been a little odd. The first was done just a couple weeks after the killing of Osama bin Laden and may have represented somewhat of a high point for Democrats. This one was done the same weekend that we nationally found a record low approval rating for Barack Obama. So unless Obama's numbers continue to get worse, this may be something of a high point for the Republicans. "

The high point is us beating Feingold by 5, as we have done before.

Jensen has a habit of spinning, though.

[Lief 🗽]

Mark Neumann is still doing things? Gross.

[CARLHAYDEN]

The PPP survey cited in this thread is again, rather interesting in its internals.

Here's some comparisons between exit polls and the PPP poll:

Category                                       Source        
                              PPP     2008 Edison     2010 Edison Senate

Liberal                     33 %         23 %                         21 %
Moderate                 29             47                             43
Conservative           38              31                            36

Woman                    55             51                             50
Man                         45              49                            50

  

[Miles]

Feingold isn't running for anything in 2012

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/19/russ-feingold-not-running-for-senate_n_931138.html

[bore]

This is looking like the sort of election which unfortunately Baldwin won't be able to win. If I were the Dems I'd want to nominate an unconfrontational moderate like Kind.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm still holding out for a left-wing revival. Americans will soon grow tired of do-nothing centrists and those who don't even pretend to serve the people.

[Napoleon]

Is there a strong socially liberal anti-war candidate? Strong meaning able to win.

[TheGlobalizer]

So unless Obama's numbers continue to get worse, this may be something of a high point for the Republicans. "

Tautology is tautological.  WTF.

[whaeffner1]

It would be devastating for Democrats if the GOP picks up another seat in Wisconsin.  It would prove the ineptness of the party and the resurgance of Republicans.

[redcommander]

It would be devastating for Democrats if the GOP picks up another seat in Wisconsin.  It would prove the ineptness of the party and the resurgance of Republicans.

When was the last time Wisconsin had two Republican senators anyways? That would be amazing if Republicans could pull that off again.

[Frodo]

If the trend from 2010 continues, and Wisconsin elects yet another Republican to high office (this time Herb Kohl's Senate seat), then it will confirm that Wisconsin has realigned itself with the Republican Party, and that though Democrats can still rack up a victory here and there in the state, by and large it will be an uphill battle.  We have already seen some recent hints of that with the largely failed recall campaigns. 

[DrScholl]

Most of the recalls were in traditionally Republican districts that never elected anyone but Republicans, there was no realignment. The result of the Senate race depends on Obama winning the state or not, split results in Senate races and Presidential elections are rare. If Obama wins, the Dem Senate candidate wins too.

[Vosem]

The last time Republicans held both of Wisconsin's Senate seats was the early days of the 85th Congress (1957), with Joe McCarthy and Alexander Wiley. McCarthy died that year and was replaced by a Democrat.

The last time Republicans held all of Wisconsin's House seats was during the 80th Congress (1947-1949), with Lawrence H. Smith, Glenn R. Davis, William H. Stevenson, John C. Brophy, Charles J. Kersten, Frank B. Keefe, Reid F. Murray, John W. Byrnes, Merlin Hall, and Alvin E. O'Konski.

[TheGlobalizer]

It does seem that WI is shifting to right just when the Tea Party energy is petering out a bit.  A bit strange considering all of the recall mania, and the seemingly opposite outcome in MI/OH on similar bills.