Election Polling
Clinton: 50%
Palin: 46%
Good Evening and welcome to Election Night 2012. It is a historic race no doubt. President Hillary Clinton vs. Governor Sarah Palin. Two women, running for the highest office in the land tonight, but only one will make it. Will it be, four more years of Hillary Clinton, or Sarah Palin?
Looking at Pres. Clinton's job approval rating she is doing fairly well. With an average of around 54%, Clinton looks to be in good shape tonight. At last glance she was beating Palin by five points in the polls.
But, polls don't vote. People vote. So we shall soon see.
Our first projection of the night goes for Pres. Clinton in the state of Vermont.
Vermont: 60.7%-39.0%
We can also project the states of Kentucky and South Carolina for Sarah Palin. Strong Republican states and they remain so tonight.
Kentucky: 55.9%-44.1%
South Carolina: 57.6%-41.1%
We are also calling Georgia for the Governor as well.
Georgia: 55.3%-44.6%
Palin: 33
Clinton: 3
Let's take a look at the map and it is Palin with an early lead tonight, but the same was true for John McCain four years ago, so this race is not over yet.
Now, four years ago John McCain kept Ohio Republican, turned Pennsylvania Republican and flipped New Hampshire back into the GOP column, will Palin be able to do so tonight?
New Hampshire will probably be a stretch, but she spent a lot of time in the Keystone State, she visited the rural areas and tried to connect with the voters. Though more conservative in some of her statements she tried to appeal to the very voters Clinton did well with in 2008.
How is it looking for the Congressional Election tonight?
Well the Democrats retook control of the Senate in 2010, but split control of the house with the Republicans, so we'll see how tonight goes. They'll probably hold onto the Senate, but the House may stay into Republican hands once more.
So Nancy Pelosi has been speaker, then Minority Leader, and possibly Speaker again. We'll have to wait and --
We are now projecting Indiana for Sarah Palin.
Indiana: 52.9%-47.2%
Another Republican states stays Republican again tonight. Looking to the map it is still Palin with a lead of 44 to Pres. Clinton's 3 electoral votes.
8:00
It is that time on the east coast and we are now projecting for Pres. Clinton the following states:
Maryland: 60.0%-39.4%
Delaware: 60.3%-39.7%
Massachusetts: 59.9%-39.4%
Connecticut: 60.4%-39.6%
Maine: 56.6%-43.1%
New Jersey: 57.7%-41.0%
Illinois: 59.4%-40.2%
New Hampshire: 52.2%-46.9%
District of Columbia: 90.0%-9.2%
For Sarah Palin we project:
Tennessee: 56.6%-43.2%
Alabama: 61.9%-37.1%
Mississippi: 61.0%-36.9%
Oklahoma: 61.9%-37.2%
Clinton: 79
Palin: 77
And there is the map at this hour. Clinton with the narrowest of leads in the electoral college, but there are still many undecided states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, West Virginia to name a few.
Florida, the site of the Republican Convention, the state that Clinton carried four years ago and tonight she looks like she's in a bit of trouble.
FL:
Palin: 48.8%
Clinton: 48.4%
It is Palin leading, but we still have results coming in. Now at this time we can project a winner in the state of North Carolina. Sarah Palin will carry the state.
North Carolina: 51.1%-48.0%
The state which housed the Democrat's Convention has gone to Sarah Palin. Now this has to be a tough one to swallow. Pres. Clinton campaigned fiercely in that state, Vice-President Obama was there just yesterday making their pitch.
Palin: 92
Clinton: 79
As we look back at the numbers from four years ago, Sen. McCain did not do as well in the southern states as Palin is doing tonight. Looking at the margins she is doing quite well. An area where she tried to swing was in the Northeast. The addition of Gov. Romney was seen as a way to swing New Hampshire in their direction, but it wasn't so.
Some conservatives are skeptical of Romney, but his presence on the ticket is having no effect on Palin's win in the deep south tonight. We'll see if he comes in and is able to help her keep the battlegrounds of Ohio and Pennsylvania.
He did give a great speech in Florida back at the end of the summer. He really seemed to come alive and showed America a side that many didn't think was there. He reaffirmed Palin's qualifications and ability to lead this nation and came down hard on Clinton and Obama in a non-traditional liberal/conservative confrontation.
If Palin does not win tonight does Romney have a shot or does the runner-up Mike Huckabee have it?
Technically Romney was the frontrunner for the nomination this time around, but he passed on it. Now him accepting the Vice Presidency is an interesting move. If Palin loses and loses badly he's finished. If she wins then he's Vice President for a four to eight years depending on her reelection in '16 and then he could have a go at it in 2020 if he wants. He'd be 72, so not likely, but still possible. But, the key will be if Palin loses tonight, but only by a hair then Romney could make the case and sidestep Huckabee in 2016 and possibly win this thing against Barack Obama if he choses to run, which given all indications if Clinton wins tonight he will.
What about Obama, if Clinton should lose tonight?
Well he could run and win the nomination but he has the possibility of becoming a Walter Mondale is Palin is a successful President. Obama has the most to lose and the most to gain in many ways tonight. If Clinton goes down then he's finished. If she does win and continues on a path of success then he's golden.
Hold up, we're now projecting West Virginia for Sarah Palin.
West Virginia: 53.3%-45.6%
This is quite a shock. Clinton carried the state four years ago and tonight it switches back to the GOP. Is this a sign of anything?
No, I don't think so. Clinton's approval numbers speak volumes for herself. She's run a great campaign, Palin is a great campaigner too and has a real connection with people, but I don't know if she's got what it takes to beat Clinton. Perhaps if it was Romney on top tonight then maybe things would be a little tighter, but I just don't see a path for Palin to win.