Senate Map: (9/24/11)
Some notes:
- Montana and Missouri are going to be two very close races. Right now, I have them listed as toss-up's, but Republicans are running some decent candidates in both states. If I had to give one side an edge, I'd give the GOP an edge in both matchups, due to national environment.
- Massachusetts will be competitive, despite early polls suggesting Brown would cruise. I'll have to wait to see some more polling before I move this to toss-up, as right now I think the PPP poll may have been somewhat of a fluke.
- Wisconsin is a really good opportunity for the GOP. Hopefully they'll capitalize and pick a good candidate. There was a lot of uproar in early 2011 with the GOP in Wisconsin, but they seemed to have rebounded nicely by keeping the Senate there. Walker's approval ratings have rebounded, and I think the GOP has an excellent shot at holding both Senate seats.
- Some states, such as California, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, I think the Democrats will more than likely win, I'm just keeping them at "Lean Democratic" until we have a better idea of who the GOP candidates will be in each race. Feinstein's approval ratings aren't as hot as they've been the past few years.
- Anyone know what's going on in New Mexico? Haven't heard a lot from there. Could be a potential sleeper seat for the GOP to pick up.
Current Senate: 53-47 Democrats
Map Projection: 50-48, Republicans, with 2 toss-ups
No Toss-ups: 52-48, Republicans (R+5)
Really not looking at the shades -- just at the individual calls. I agree with you on most of them, but I would say Virginia is the true flip-a-coin seat; Missouri
ever so slightly leans McCaskill and Montana
ever so slightly leans Rehberg.
