2012 NDP leadership convention

[RogueBeaver]

Not openly, but they might on preferences. I saw speculation that Topp might throw in with Mulcair a few weeks ago, but that makes absolutely no sense.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Topp+Nash+team+against+Mulcair+managers/6266402/story.html

[Peter the Lefty]

Not openly, but they might on preferences. I saw speculation that Topp might throw in with Mulcair a few weeks ago, but that makes absolutely no sense.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Topp+Nash+team+against+Mulcair+managers/6266402/story.html

Topp bowing out and endorsing Mulcair is the most hilariously rediculous idea I've ever heard.  There seems to be quite a bit of (possibly personal) animosity between them.  And it seems like few of Topp's big-name backers could ever stomach voting for him (just picture Libby Davies casting her ballot with Mulcair as her first choice lol)

[lilTommy]

Damn it!  I may just end up having to put him first on my hypothetical ballot.  I really hope he at least makes clear his support for a Palestinian state (or lack thereof) or opposition to Israeli settlements (or lack thereof).  Not to mention the things the Charest government did while he was in it, and his explanation of his flirtations with the Conservatives seem less-than-satisfactory to me.  He also has some explaining to do regarding his Bay-Street donors.  But I can't see anyone else leading the NDP to power, but I really wish it didn't have to be with his approach.  I really wish Topp had more charisma, he'd be great if it weren't for that.  I STILL wish Megan Leslie or Peter Julian were running.  Nash needs to get to Quebec and work really hard campaigning if she wants to hang onto it, by the look of this poll.  She'll have a bit of time, but she'd still have a helluva lot of work to do (I'm surprised they're so unfavorable to her.  Is it that her French sounds too European? lol).

By the way, just out of curiosity...are Andrea Horwath and Adrian Dix likely or expected to make endorsements?  I'm a bit surprised that they haven't yet, seeing as they could be potential kingmakers (or queenmakers, if one or both of them go for Nash).  Dix especially.

Well in regards to the Middle east, its well known why he is more pro0Israel since his seat is very jewish; but i believe he has said he support party policy on the issues... my issue with him was how he treated Libby.
What don't you like about his explanation? i'm pretty sure its what actually happened;
Topp also has Bay street backers who have given larger sums of money then Mulcair who has more but given less (from what i remember) so Mulcair ain't the only one. Unfortunately in the days of post-gov't funding parties have to generate funds. I'm glad to see there are some progressives on bay street! i hope
Topp, in my opinion was never going to win; No seat (so another year without a leader!) NO elected experience outside of ACTRA and the NDP, and his campaign has been far too aggressive and blatantly anti-mulcair. Is he had one, i think Mulcair would had resigned.... i think Topp has made the blood that bad between the two. I agree i wish Nash had more charisma to her and the french thing i don't get either... a quebecer can maybe jump in, i'm franco-ontarian so my accents probably off too
Hmmm i thought most leaders haven't endorsed (except Michaels in NFLD)? I know the premiers haven't endorsed anyone... makes sense, who wants to divide.

If you don't want Mulcair as your first spot, don't. I doubt this is going to be a first or even second round win for anyone.

I think Libby made the wrong choice in Topp, i thought she would have found a better place within the Nash camp? I wonder how many Topp initial supporters regret their choice to endorse him early on?

[Linus Van Pelt]

Leader / BC / AB / PR / ON / QC / AT / CAN / M / F

Mulcair / 25 / 12 / 26 / 25 / 37 / 30 / 27 / 25 / 29

Topp / 20 / 12 / 30 / 24 / 19 / 27 / 21 / 18 / 24

Nash /20 / 12 / 25 / 27 / 16 / 27 / 22 / 18 / 26

Wait, what is this? A poll of members, or of supporters? And is it just of decided voters, in traditional Canadian style, or does it include "undecided" in a separate category? Is it an internal for one of the candidates?

[lilTommy]

Sorry it came from a forum poll i believe...

Forum released a poll but i don't have an account so i can't link it.
https://www.forumresearch.com/PollsLogin.asp?c=ar95eryrn5r5&f=MHJED_Pn0nqn-9vqr_-_Srqr4ny_V557r5_c1yy_(S147z_er5rn4pu)_(FDEFDFDI).2qs

Leader / BC / AB / PR / ON / QC / AT / CAN / M / F

Mulcair / 25 / 12 / 26 / 25 / 37 / 30 / 27 / 25 / 29

Topp / 20 / 12 / 30 / 24 / 19 / 27 / 21 / 18 / 24

Nash /20 / 12 / 25 / 27 / 16 / 27 / 22 / 18 / 26

[Linus Van Pelt]

Yes you said that in the post above, but where did you see the numbers, and does that indirect source answer any of my questions?

[lilTommy]

I was over at Rabble.ca and thats where i grabbed the numbers... looks like it was a pool of all canadians... not just NDP members

"Forum Research polled Canadians (n=1675, 5 Mar) with different putative NDP leaders at the helm.  They seem to indicate that with Topp or Nash, we're back in 4th place in Québec.  The results are:"

Leader/Cons/Lib/NDP/Green/Other/Undec

Mulcair/29/21/27/7/4/3/9
Topp/31/23/21/7/6/3/9
Nash/30/22/22/8/6/3/8
Unspecified/33/22/25/4/5/1/11

More NDP numbers (not repartitioning undecided):

Leader/BC/AB/PRA/ON/QC/ATL/CANADA/MALE/FEMALE

Mulcair/25/12/26/25/37/30/27/25/29
Topp/20/12/30/24/19/27/21/18/24
Nash/20/12/25/27/16/27/22/18/26

[RogueBeaver]

At Issue: No insight we haven't heard a thousand times before. They think that Mulcair wins if Cullen places 3rd, and that Nash places second no matter what.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I was over at Rabble.ca and thats where i grabbed the numbers... looks like it was a pool of all canadians... not just NDP members

"Forum Research polled Canadians (n=1675, 5 Mar) with different putative NDP leaders at the helm.  They seem to indicate that with Topp or Nash, we're back in 4th place in Québec.  The results are:"

Leader/Cons/Lib/NDP/Green/Other/Undec

Mulcair/29/21/27/7/4/3/9
Topp/31/23/21/7/6/3/9
Nash/30/22/22/8/6/3/8
Unspecified/33/22/25/4/5/1/11

More NDP numbers (not repartitioning undecided):

Leader/BC/AB/PRA/ON/QC/ATL/CANADA/MALE/FEMALE

Mulcair/25/12/26/25/37/30/27/25/29
Topp/20/12/30/24/19/27/21/18/24
Nash/20/12/25/27/16/27/22/18/26

Oh I see, it's support for the NDP depending on who the leader is, not support for leadership candidates.

Not a tremendously useful poll, but at least the numbers make more sense that way.

[Peter the Lefty]

Damn it!  I may just end up having to put him first on my hypothetical ballot.  I really hope he at least makes clear his support for a Palestinian state (or lack thereof) or opposition to Israeli settlements (or lack thereof).  Not to mention the things the Charest government did while he was in it, and his explanation of his flirtations with the Conservatives seem less-than-satisfactory to me.  He also has some explaining to do regarding his Bay-Street donors.  But I can't see anyone else leading the NDP to power, but I really wish it didn't have to be with his approach.  I really wish Topp had more charisma, he'd be great if it weren't for that.  I STILL wish Megan Leslie or Peter Julian were running.  Nash needs to get to Quebec and work really hard campaigning if she wants to hang onto it, by the look of this poll.  She'll have a bit of time, but she'd still have a helluva lot of work to do (I'm surprised they're so unfavorable to her.  Is it that her French sounds too European? lol).

By the way, just out of curiosity...are Andrea Horwath and Adrian Dix likely or expected to make endorsements?  I'm a bit surprised that they haven't yet, seeing as they could be potential kingmakers (or queenmakers, if one or both of them go for Nash).  Dix especially.

Well in regards to the Middle east, its well known why he is more pro0Israel since his seat is very jewish; but i believe he has said he support party policy on the issues... my issue with him was how he treated Libby.
What don't you like about his explanation? i'm pretty sure its what actually happened;
Topp also has Bay street backers who have given larger sums of money then Mulcair who has more but given less (from what i remember) so Mulcair ain't the only one. Unfortunately in the days of post-gov't funding parties have to generate funds. I'm glad to see there are some progressives on bay street! i hope
Topp, in my opinion was never going to win; No seat (so another year without a leader!) NO elected experience outside of ACTRA and the NDP, and his campaign has been far too aggressive and blatantly anti-mulcair. Is he had one, i think Mulcair would had resigned.... i think Topp has made the blood that bad between the two. I agree i wish Nash had more charisma to her and the french thing i don't get either... a quebecer can maybe jump in, i'm franco-ontarian so my accents probably off too
Hmmm i thought most leaders haven't endorsed (except Michaels in NFLD)? I know the premiers haven't endorsed anyone... makes sense, who wants to divide.

If you don't want Mulcair as your first spot, don't. I doubt this is going to be a first or even second round win for anyone.

I think Libby made the wrong choice in Topp, i thought she would have found a better place within the Nash camp? I wonder how many Topp initial supporters regret their choice to endorse him early on?

My issue with his explanation was that he said he realized his views on the environment were too out of sync with the Conservatives (specifically Kyoto).  If he were truly a social democrat (or left-liberal), he would've realized before negotiating with them that he didn't belong in the CPC (not just with the environment, but social programs, labour, corporate tax breaks, gay rights, health care, etc.). He broke off the talks because he was too far off environmentally from them, but he said nothing about the other issues.  He also sat in the Charest government while it tried to raise tuition fees and take away basic labour rights (which makes you wonder if all of his labour supporters did any of their homework before backing him).  And his talk of "renewal" and "modernizing" sends chills down my spine, almost to the point of hearing Tony Blair's voice.  And as it's been pointed out, Blair ran on a more radical platform in 1994 than Mulcair is now.  Considering what Blair did with the Labour Party, I cringe to think of what Mulcair will do with the NDP.  Though I'm forced to admit, with these polls, that I have no choice to put Mulcair as No. 1 on my (hypothetical) ballot.  He'd better keep Libby on his front bench, and as Deputy leader.  She still tweeted some not-so-nice post about him during the last debate (though you can't blame her). 

[RogueBeaver]

I will be thrilled beyond measure if Mulcair loses. Not because I dislike him either...

[Peter the Lefty]

Interesting article.  If true, it would explain why Singh was so bizarrely harsh on Topp at the last two debates.
http://www.globalnews.ca/canada/mulcair+singh+appear+to+team+up+in+ndp+leadership+contest/6442597793/story.html

Basically, it suggests that Singh is Mulcair's attack dog, doing his dirty work for him, and that it's an open secret.  His arguments against Topp's capital gains tax proposals were pretty bizarre, saying they'd hurt charities, and a woman's right to choose.  He even called Topp a liar.  He also pulled a Captain Renault by going after Nash, asking how she can claim to understand Quebec if she hasn't lived there, even though he hasn't either.  Pretty pathetic, actually. 

[RogueBeaver]

Shocker: the two rightmost candidates are allies. That's nothing compared to what Harper and the Permanent Campaign have in store for whoever wins... which only Mulcair is capable of handling. What I want to know is how things work downballot- but alas, that has to wait until Alice Funke posts again next Wed.

[Peter the Lefty]

Shocker: the two rightmost candidates are allies. That's nothing compared to what Harper and the Permanent Campaign have in store for whoever wins... which only Mulcair is capable of handling. What I want to know is how things work downballot- but alas, that has to wait until Alice Funke posts again next Wed.

Sorry.  Wasn't quite aware that such dirty tricks were so common in Canada. 

[RogueBeaver]

Negative attacks in a leadership battle are unusual for the NDP, (though what Singh did is very mild by Grit/Tory standards) I agree. Another reason why I think Mulcair might have problems is because his personality isn't in the traditional happy-warrior mold of NDP leaders. That doesn't mean being a "pleasant vegetable"- after all, Jack Layton threw (at Iggy and especially Paul Martin) and took punches, but it does mean storing the iron fist underneath the pillow. Mulcair's the reverse. And yes, there is a pillow, which I can attest to from personal experience.

[Peter the Lefty]

Negative attacks in a leadership battle are unusual for the NDP, (though what Singh did is very mild by Grit/Tory standards) I agree. Another reason why I think Mulcair might have problems is because his personality isn't in the traditional happy-warrior mold of NDP leaders. That doesn't mean being a "pleasant vegetable"- after all, Jack Layton threw (at Iggy and especially Paul Martin) and took punches, but it does mean storing the iron fist underneath the pillow. Mulcair's the reverse. And yes, there is a pillow, which I can attest to from personal experience.

What I didn't realize was that it's common for one candidate to simply act as a stooge for another.  The article makes it clear that they tend to hang out together in the debates, and it's basically an open secret that Singh is planning to back Mulcair later.  Like it's all arranged that Singh is doing Mulcair's bidding. 

[RogueBeaver]

You can't have a formal pact for two reasons: a) Counter to party culture b) how the balloting system works. 90% of voting will be done pre-convention. Perhaps the most famous pact in recent memory is Dion-Kennedy in '06, but that's the LPC, where such things are expected.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's last night's At Issue panel discussing the race.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/03/09/pol-at-issue-ndp-leadership.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Not going to watch those hacks. TV pundits are too used to the Liberals and Conservatives, and know the inner workings of those parties really well, but they don't know anything about the NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

Does anyone outside the NDP, apart from Alice Funke, know anything about the NDP?

Vintage Simpson.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/jeffrey-simpson/will-mulcair-beat-the-ndps-defenders-of-the-faith/article2364630/

Nash profile.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1143227--ndp-leadership-toronto-mp-peggy-nash-fights-for-her-neighbourhood?bn=1

BC standings.

http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/hopefuls%2BBattle%2BSunday/6280154/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Explicit Thirdism? Fat chance.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201203/09/01-4504256-la-troisieme-voie-de-thomas-mulcair.php

[minionofmidas]

Does anyone outside the NDP, apart from Alice Funke, know anything about the NDP?

And how many of those inside it do?

[MaxQue]

For sure, La Presse wants the NDP infringing.

It is not a secret than Desmarais prefers Liberals. Their blatant campaigning for the scolarity fees increase proved than they are the propaganda arm of Desmarais/Power Corporation.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anyone outside the NDP, apart from Alice Funke, know anything about the NDP?

This is true. I wont watch At Issue until Funke is on the panel.

[RogueBeaver]

The French press definitely favours Mulcair and the Quebec pundit class has been saying said "elect Mulcair or we'll start writing your obituaries in Quebec" since the race started.