2012 NDP leadership convention
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Author Topic: 2012 NDP leadership convention  (Read 144464 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #675 on: December 20, 2011, 03:48:43 PM »

Parties guard membership lists with their lives
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #676 on: December 20, 2011, 04:54:28 PM »

Also, based partly on the numbers I've discussed in the past, and, the new poll, and, a few other numbers, I've come up with my own projection as to where I feel the race stands at the moment.

Topp - 32%
Mulcair - 32%
Nash - 24%
Others - 12%

I think far more "NDP supporters" back Mulcair (heavily) but far more "NDP members" (very heavily) back Topp
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #677 on: December 20, 2011, 04:57:14 PM »

Also, based partly on the numbers I've discussed in the past, and, the new poll, and, a few other numbers, I've come up with my own projection as to where I feel the race stands at the moment.

Topp - 32%
Mulcair - 32%
Nash - 24%
Others - 12%

I think far more "NDP supporters" back Mulcair (heavily) but far more "NDP members" (very heavily) back Topp

So Topp wins on the first ballot, since obviously only members can vote.
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Holmes
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« Reply #678 on: December 20, 2011, 05:10:54 PM »

I think far more "NDP supporters" back Mulcair (heavily) but far more "NDP members" (very heavily) back Topp

Source? That's not the impression I get when I speak and have spoken to NDP members.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #679 on: December 20, 2011, 05:16:07 PM »

It's a control thing. Are you a member of any party? Ask them to see their membership list and see what they tell you. If you can convince them to let you see it, tell them you want to share this information with another party and see what they threaten you with (clue: lawsuits, and they wont be very nice about it, in fact, they'd probably kick you out of the party just for asking)
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #680 on: December 20, 2011, 05:16:53 PM »

Also, based partly on the numbers I've discussed in the past, and, the new poll, and, a few other numbers, I've come up with my own projection as to where I feel the race stands at the moment.

Topp - 32%
Mulcair - 32%
Nash - 24%
Others - 12%

I think far more "NDP supporters" back Mulcair (heavily) but far more "NDP members" (very heavily) back Topp

So Topp wins on the first ballot, since obviously only members can vote.
Well this is my estimation of the first ballot. Remember Mulcair did have a huge lead in the poll, even if it's an outlier, we can't ignore it. As well, memberships are being sold every day, and that's good for Mulcair.
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Holmes
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« Reply #681 on: December 20, 2011, 05:21:03 PM »

I'm a member of the NDP, but that doesn't answer why you think more members support Topp and more non-member supporters are behind Mulcair.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #682 on: December 20, 2011, 08:33:18 PM »

I don't believe federal NDP membership lists can be bought by third parties. Those lists are only made available to candidates for the leadership.

For the record, we didn't have names, only #s. And we weren't told that they were Liberal members, but I figured it out pretty quickly.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #683 on: December 21, 2011, 01:41:31 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2011, 01:54:11 PM by Parson Brown (TEDDY) »

 
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Updated to reflect Chisholm dropping out of the race
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1105379

edit
further edited the curve to reflect the new poll.

edit edit
further updated to reflect commentary that came along with the poll

edit edit edit
further further updated to link to each candidate's website

More edits:
> made the text about Chisholm larger so people dont scroll past it by accident.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #684 on: December 21, 2011, 01:44:12 PM »

For the best, really.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #685 on: December 21, 2011, 01:57:40 PM »

Hopefully Saganash and Singh will be next. I presume that the candidates will tell their supporters who to preference for. Either Dewar or Cullen could be chosen as a compromise candidate if the convention ends up like LPC '06.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #686 on: December 21, 2011, 02:01:46 PM »

FB fans:


Cullen - 5343
Nash - 5289
Dewar - 3890
Topp - 3097
Saganash - 2786
Mulcair - 2175
Ashton - 681
Singh - 634



Twitter fans:

Dewar - 7327
Topp - 4723
Nash - 4318
Cullen - 3088
Ashton - 2852
Saganash - 2446
Mulcair - 2107
Singh - 643



COMBO:

Dewar - 11217
Nash - 9607
Cullen - 8431
Topp - 7820
Saganash - 5232
Mulcair - 4282
Ashton - 3533
Singh - 1277





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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #687 on: December 21, 2011, 02:03:54 PM »

Hopefully Saganash and Singh will be next. I presume that the candidates will tell their supporters who to preference for. Either Dewar or Cullen could be chosen as a compromise candidate if the convention ends up like LPC '06.
I'd like to see Saganash, and Ashton drop, and Dewar or Cullen (hopefully Dewar to Cullen) throw to the other prior to the convention, then have the top 4 run.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #688 on: December 21, 2011, 02:11:29 PM »

Agreed on Ashton. But with Dewar/Cullen you could see neither of them want to throw to the other, because both believe they have a shot at victory. See LPC '68 or '06 for details. As for which of them would have a better shot, no idea. I have heard that Dewar is supposedly the most moderate among the top-tier candidates, but unsure if that's true or not.

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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #689 on: December 21, 2011, 02:28:44 PM »

True, but I think Cullen has more staying power due to his age and location (as the only western candidate)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #690 on: December 21, 2011, 04:15:11 PM »

He had to drop his "strategic coop" plan though, since no one in either party took that seriously.
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Holmes
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« Reply #691 on: December 21, 2011, 06:38:22 PM »

No.

I love the words he has for the Bloc, though.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #692 on: December 21, 2011, 09:02:55 PM »

Mulcair touts experience.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/12/21/pol-thomas-mulcair-profile.html
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #693 on: December 24, 2011, 01:25:20 AM »

http://blogs.canoe.ca/davidakin/politicsndp/handicapping-the-ndp-leadership-race-a-surprising-top-tier-has-emerged/comment-page-1/#comment-35611

" it would be inaccurate at this stage to refer to Brian Topp as a frontrunner. In fact, he may not even be among the top tier candidates."

"A trio of candidates are doing very well and are clearly separating themselves from the pack when it comes to more first-ballot support. That trio is Thomas Mulcair, Peggy Nash and Paul Dewar. There is a bottom trio that is finding it difficult to get lots of first ballot support and, at this point, would be good bets for being dropped early in the balloting on March 24. That trio is Nathan Cullen, Niki Ashton and Martin Singh. Then there is a middle tier consisting of Romeo Saganash and Brian Topp. As I said, I’m piecing this snapshot together from sources who will not go on-the-record and are from  different campaigns and who are providing me information that needs a bit of deduction. So while I’m reasonably confident about this middle tier, if there were just two tiers, I would put Saganash in the top tier and Topp in the bottom tier."

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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« Reply #694 on: December 24, 2011, 08:01:04 AM »



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Updated to reflect Internet discussion
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DL
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« Reply #695 on: December 24, 2011, 04:21:36 PM »

Mulcair is not francophone. HIs mother tongue is English.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #696 on: December 24, 2011, 05:21:28 PM »

Mulcair is not francophone. HIs mother tongue is English.

Well, francophone is defined more by use of language than by mother tongue.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #697 on: December 24, 2011, 07:15:53 PM »

Brian Topp not a first-tier candidate? Such asininity must surely come from a Dipper Kinsella analogue.

Mulcair: Not that sh**t again. Like Topp, he self-identifies as an Anglo.
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Holmes
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« Reply #698 on: December 24, 2011, 11:01:40 PM »

Iirc, the people at the Mulcair event I attended back in November weren't buying what Topp was selling, and were more open to Nash and Dewar... then again, this was a small-ish event in downtown Toronto, which might explain it. Still. Anecdotal.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #699 on: December 25, 2011, 09:43:47 AM »

I can see Topp as not being considered in the top-tier. Maybe he's the Jon Huntsman of the race?
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