2012 NDP leadership convention
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #875 on: January 17, 2012, 08:29:29 PM »

Any type of witch-hunt against Mulcair for his dual-citizenship would be an equivalent of the birthers here in the US.  However, something noteworthy which I'm surprised that the other candidates aren't making an issue of is the fact that his wife ran as the UMP candidate in a French election, according to the article below.  It would certainly help candidates like Topp and Nash portray him as a rightist neoliberal since Topp's whole fuss about Mulcair's past serving in a cabinet led by Jean Charest seems to have fallen flat. 
http://www.torontosun.com/2012/01/16/ndps-mulcair-will-keep-french-citizenship
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #876 on: January 17, 2012, 08:36:06 PM »

That'd be pretty desperate of them, especially considering the subtext would be "a wife can't have differing political opinions from her husband's." In an NDP race, no less. That said, Mulcair's was always on the left of a centre/centre-left PLQ.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #877 on: January 17, 2012, 08:39:38 PM »

Did you oppose Dion's '06 candidacy for that reason? Of all the things to criticize Mulcair for... that should be near the bottom of the list.
I opposed Dion for a LOT of reasons. Even my grandmother, who had voted Liberal in every Federal or Provincial election in her entire life, refused to vote for Dion.

Unlike the US, you can be leader even if you are not born here. People choose to be Canadian. My father did. Mulcair should choose to be Canadian, and not leave a backup option.

Why should he have to renounce his other citizenship?
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #878 on: January 17, 2012, 10:16:04 PM »

Moving back a topic, here's what I take to be the case for Topp, as I understand it. (I'm not, just to be clear, saying I'm endorsing this - more trying to understand what's going on. But to be honest I don't reject it as vehemently as the rest of the forum either). There are a couple of aspects of this.

The first thing to understand, which I think a lot of people don't, is that Topp very much comes across as a Quebecois when speaking French, in terms of his accent and his general understanding of the province's history. Which is unsurprising, given that he grew up there with one parent of each language, just like Trudeau, Charest and Mulcair. Now ask yourself: is the party's position in Quebec sufficiently secure and policy-based that we can be confident it will survive someone like Peggy Nash who knows the language but is obviously an Anglo outsider? Suppose you think the answer is "no". So most of the field, from this perspective, doesn't look so good. But suppose further you joined the NDP in 1977 since it was the party that stood for economic egalitarianism and the elimination of poverty, and you maybe don't think that Liberal-plus-actually-doing-something-about-climate-change instead-of-merely-talking-about-it is a maximally attractive governing programme. Uh oh! But then here's this guy Brian Topp, who, you think, can go on Quebec TV and tell folksy stories about his upbringing in St-Lambert, all the while being closely tied to the traditional western party and serious about reducing inequality and poverty. Looks pretty good!

The other thing, meanwhile, is Topp's distinctive emphasis on raising taxes on the wealthy, and generally being up-front about the fact that expanding the welfare state actually costs money. Now, leaving aside winning elections for a second and looking at policy on the merits, this is, in fact, much better than a lot of what we have seen from the traditional Anglo side of the party in recent years. It is better than Paul Dewar going around promising initiatives with no idea how to pay for them, and it is better than Andrea Horwath going around promising random minor cost-of-living modifications. So, that probably counts for something. But even moving away from policy merits back to winning elections, there's at least an argument to be made that the real problem with the party's economic image in Ontario especially stems from the massive Rae deficits, and getting a serious reputation for deficit-tackling is worth the unpleasantness of "I will raise taxes".

And maybe, just maybe, if you're an MP from New Westminster or Surrey and your narrow re-election over the Conservatives depends on a large turnout from certain people who are maybe not so interested in the boreal forest and gay marriage and the Atlas Forum, you think it's actually an electoral positive for the news to be dominated by the question whether people in the bracket over $ 250,000 should pay more tax...

Anyway, I'm not too sure what to think of all this. But it has a certain logic, from a certain perspective, which at least explains where all these endorsements are coming from.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #879 on: January 17, 2012, 10:24:21 PM »

He doesn't have to renounce his citizenship.

If he wants my support however, he will need to.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #880 on: January 17, 2012, 10:35:34 PM »

TGP: I understand the case as well, but forgive me for thinking that Topp would at least be moving the party to Layton's tactical left (can't recall Layton using the words "tax increase" WRT personal income tax in either '08 or '11) if he won. As for Quebec, our punditocracy flirted with Topp for a while, and I'd still give him a slight edge in their hearts over Mulcair. Whether or not Quebec Dippers agree with CSD, I don't know.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #881 on: January 17, 2012, 11:10:17 PM »

TGP: I understand the case as well, but forgive me for thinking that Topp would at least be moving the party to Layton's tactical left (can't recall Layton using the words "tax increase" WRT personal income tax in either '08 or '11) if he won.

I don't disagree with that. Adrian Dix definitely has, though, and he seems to be doing rather well in the polls.

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That's interesting; I didn't know that. Do you have any particular examples in mind?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #882 on: January 17, 2012, 11:14:28 PM »

It really looks bad that Mulcair has French citizenship. But if you think about it, it is very Canadian... a lot of Canadians are dual. My girlfriend is dual, for example.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #883 on: January 17, 2012, 11:16:47 PM »

I posted various columns from La Presse and Le Devoir about Topp back in September-October. Le Devoir editorial board, Chantal Hebert, Lysiane Gagnon among them.

Citizenship: The knock against Mulcair is that he's too right for the base. In a general election, citizenship will become fodder- Rae and Harper have already said as much just today.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #884 on: January 18, 2012, 06:15:10 AM »

It's a glass half full thing. You can view it as fully both, or half and half, and I view it as the latter.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #885 on: January 18, 2012, 07:28:44 AM »

Speaking of Adrian Dix, has he endorsed anyone yet?  If not, who would he be likeliest to endorse?
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Holmes
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« Reply #886 on: January 18, 2012, 08:16:54 AM »

I just don't understand the outrage against dual citizenship. Sounds very much like a redneck sort of thing. Coming from the guy from Northern Ontario, here.
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Hash
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« Reply #887 on: January 18, 2012, 08:38:59 AM »

It seems as if Mulcair's wife was only a UMP list candidate for the AFE, which is a massive joke which nobody cares about. Mulcair being a dual citizen and facing all this retarded Canadian nationalist faux outrage makes me much more likely to support him.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #888 on: January 18, 2012, 08:46:41 AM »

It seems as if Mulcair's wife was only a UMP list candidate for the AFE, which is a massive joke which nobody cares about.
That still leaves the UMP part, though. I do think that's somewhat damaging.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #889 on: January 18, 2012, 08:57:34 AM »

Mulcair is defending it:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/01/17/pol-thomas-mulcair-france.html

"We celebrate our diversity, we have a minister responsible for multiculturalism. But when push comes to shove, if you give him half a chance, the real Stephen Harper comes out (suggesting) 'I'm more Canadian than you are because my family doesn't have a background in different countries,"' Mulcair said

He can handle himself... i don't think this will affect those voters who the NDP are trying to attract anyway. The articule is rather positive towards Mulcair and makes Harper look like he truely is, a small minded man.

there was a rabble write-up about Mulcairs meet and greet in TO last night... the Union stance was brought up by one babbler
"..."what's wrong with letting the party members elect the leader?" rings very badly in Ontario. Affiliated members are members. Andrea Horwath got excellent support from the affiliated members when she won the leadership. A minority of Ontario members want to end the affiliate vote for the Ontario leadership in future. Mulcair risks being seen as siding with them. Andrea is proud to be one of Hamilton's "Women of Steel;" she was not the candidate of the party's Toronto establishment. In my small town, we have three union locals affiliated with the NDP, all Steel locals. They are not a pressure group, they are at the core of our founding partner, the labour movement. Mulcair knows the words, but I haven't heard him sing the tune."

So i agree with his perception of unions, but i disagree with having affiliate groups getting block voting. Union members should take out individual memberships, as its presumptuous to assume all members would vote for one candidate. Because they are a block and no other affiliate group gets blocked votes (i was ONDY and NDYC and we never have a block vote) they do become a pressure group and weld undue influence. I have no problems with union executives deciding to endorse candidates but each member should cast his own vote and i applaud the NDP executive for making the leadership vote that way.

in reference to TGP; Topp has been saying some great things in his pitch to the base, and thats part of the problem is that it feels like pandering to me. I am absolutely sure everyone of the candidates support increased equality in taxating and he won points with me for bringing those specifics up. But the man dosen't impress me and his out the door before jack was even cold was distasteful. To me experience is just as important when your leader. Your comments somewhat say all other candidates can't win over specific communities, economics being what drives people to vote... so Nash who has almost exclusively been focusing on economic issues or Mulcair who is pushing sustainable development everywhere can't win these folks over? I just don't buy that.
Oh about Andrea, most people live day-to-day on those minor cost-savings, they may seem minor to people like us who love big policy, but some people its the little things, the real tangible things that peak their interest and maybe, just maybe get them to look at you and your party a little closer... I love big policy don't get me wrong, but campaigns should be balanced by both big and small initiatives.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #890 on: January 18, 2012, 12:35:29 PM »

OK, so lots of endorsements today...

Dewar gets an endorsement from former Toronto mayor John Sewell (marked in the other column in the map, since I don't have a mark for former municipal politicians)
Cullen finally gets some caucus support with endorsements from Fin Donnelly (New Westminister-Coquitlam) and Alex Atamenenko (BC Southern Interior). Mulcair gets 2 endorsements, one from former MP Ernie Epp (Thunder Bay-Nipigon).... super guy, I met him at the NDP convention. And, one from former MPP Elie Martel (father in law of former ONDP leader Howard Hampton and former MPP from Sudbury East)

New map:

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #891 on: January 18, 2012, 01:17:58 PM »

Dewar gets an endorsement from former Toronto mayor John Sewell

Now there's an interesting name from the past.

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Does his name still carry the weight it used to in certain circles? Anyway, that's a vaguely interesting endorsement even if not, Martel being very much on the Left back in the day.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #892 on: January 18, 2012, 04:38:46 PM »

There's a Toronto debate tonight, probably livestreamed on the NDP website.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #893 on: January 18, 2012, 04:46:20 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2012, 05:31:29 PM by The Great Pumpkin »

Your comments somewhat say all other candidates can't win over specific communities, economics being what drives people to vote... so Nash who has almost exclusively been focusing on economic issues or Mulcair who is pushing sustainable development everywhere can't win these folks over? I just don't buy that.

No no, just to be clear, I wasn't saying that at all - just trying to understand the Topp thinking on its own terms. I agree with the general consensus that Mulcair is a strong candidate for the general election, and Nash has a lot of strengths too though she is clearly a bit riskier in Quebec.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #894 on: January 19, 2012, 08:42:15 AM »

Your comments somewhat say all other candidates can't win over specific communities, economics being what drives people to vote... so Nash who has almost exclusively been focusing on economic issues or Mulcair who is pushing sustainable development everywhere can't win these folks over? I just don't buy that.

No no, just to be clear, I wasn't saying that at all - just trying to understand the Topp thinking on its own terms. I agree with the general consensus that Mulcair is a strong candidate for the general election, and Nash has a lot of strengths too though she is clearly a bit riskier in Quebec.

Thanks for clearing that, and i agree the "rich get richer, tax the rich... etc" type of policies worded right (fair or equitable tax reform?) can gain support... especially when you advocate for eliminating taxes on the poorest etc. Anyway, i don't see why Topp thinks he can win in ROC over Mulcair...

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/18/john-ivison-mulcair-in-pole-position-heading-into-ndp-debates/

Forum Poll... quick synopsis:

"More telling was his (Mulcair) performance among nearly 300 self-declared NDP voters, where he won 19% support, nearly double that of his closest rival, Peggy Nash (10%) and far ahead of Paul Dewar (6%) and Brian Topp (6%). This suggests his support extends beyond his Quebec bastion.
That the race is far from over is evident from the 48% of NDP supporters who say they haven’t yet made up their minds.
When those people are stripped out, Mr. Mulcair’s support rose to 36%, ahead of Ms. Nash’s 20% and 11% for both Mr. Dewar and Mr. Topp. (Romeo Saganash won 8%; Nathan Cullen 7%; Martin Singh 4% and Niki Ashton 3%). With such a small sample size, it should be noted that the margin of error is plus or minus 8%."

The debate last night, which i miss GDMF! (profanity lol)... anyone see? i am going to watch it on Rabble today... What i'm reading is that:

Mulcair - continues to impress, inspire, calm and collected, strong and feisty
Nash - started to shine, passionate, strong on policy, still no charism queen but improving
Dewar - looked more comfortable and at ease then previous, improving
Saganash - huge improvement over the last televised one, still an uneven performance
Topp - i saw uneven coverage; some saying they saw why he was endoresed by bigwigs, knows policy can be trusted to be the SD etc, others saying he came across the most negative and frowny?
Ashton - Impressive but not leader quality just yet
Cullen - the most likeable and funny, but least able to connect (mostly cause of his shoot-in-the-foot policy on joint nominations (? right)
Singh - will make a great MP, too one-note
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #895 on: January 19, 2012, 11:31:29 AM »

Singh is ahead of Ashton? Not likely...
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #896 on: January 19, 2012, 12:16:02 PM »

I think this counts as an endorsement: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8UZKscDysA&feature=youtu.be

I'm surprised has hasn't gotten more actors endorsing him considering he was head of the actors' union.
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Holmes
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« Reply #897 on: January 19, 2012, 12:36:45 PM »

I'll try to make it to the Jack Layton tribute on March 23rd, Earl.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #898 on: January 19, 2012, 12:37:52 PM »

Updated

ES = Estimated Support


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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #899 on: January 19, 2012, 05:56:00 PM »

Teddy: I think you need to change the big backers for some. I think Charlie Angus counts as a big backer for Dewar.

Holmes: Cool, I might see you there then.


It's not an endorsement really, but Bruce Hyer (MP for Thunder Bay-Superior North) told me today he is undecided between Dewar and Cullen. It sounds like he won't be making an endorsement though.
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