2012 NDP leadership convention

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah well. Paul's been to my hometown many times. Also, I believe my MP was the first in the country to endorse him!

[Holmes]

Apparently met Thomas Mulcair. And he's shorter in person. Or maybe I'm just awkwardly tall.

Anyway, it was at the Duke of York pub in St George. Ritzy. There were membership forms, and I filled one out. Oh, and his volunteer form said "help us defeat the Conservative majority in 2014". *shrug* He went around and talked to everyone for about 45 minutes, then Dan Harris introduced him, and he made a 15 minute speech, then answered questions for about 20 - 30 minutes. He spoke rather well, and was really personable. He said he has a lot of surprise endorsements coming, especially from environmental groups. Said he's definitely not anti-union, and is definitely not a separatist, either. He talked about the election in Saskatchewan (he called it tragic, I call it pathetic), and the need to do things differently there... how you can't do things the same for three elections in a row, and hope to get different results. He also said places such as New Brunswick and PEI are target-rich areas.

Questions were pretty typical for Torontonians... they asked about Ford Nation, and things like transit, public housing, union questions... he answered them all rather well, I found. He didn't really dodge anything. Oh, and his wife was there too. She was nice.

Now that I think about it, I have a lot of questions I could've asked, but I was too nervous. When I told him I was from Timmins, he said "not everyone is perfect." Said he got that one from Charlie. Anyway, he's visiting the north in January.

[MaxQue]

And he's shorter in person.

Yes, clearly. I was shocked when I saw him at university in March. I thought he was taller.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to 308 http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/11/ndp-and-bq-leadership-endorsement.html Peggy Nash is currently comfortably in 3rd

[Хahar 🤔]

Is it okay if we all mutually agree to never mention 308 on this board? I think that would be good for everyone.

Said he's definitely not anti-union, and is definitely not a separatist, either.

Is this really something people are saying about him? The man was a Liberal frontbencher! If the Quebec Liberal Party stands for anything (other than the Mafia), it stands for federalism.

[RogueBeaver]

Is it okay if we all mutually agree to never mention 308 on this board? I think that would be good for everyone.

Said he's definitely not anti-union, and is definitely not a separatist, either.

Is this really something people are saying about him? The man was a Liberal frontbencher! If the Quebec Liberal Party stands for anything (other than the Mafia), it stands for federalism.

The PLQ takes Harper's soft nationalism stance in its good moods, heads more in the autonomiste direction in worse moods. But under no circumstances will they ever approach the PLC, Trudeauvian orthodoxy on that subject- with good electoral reason.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If someone has a sh**tty projection, and no one else has any projection, then clearly someone has the best projection around.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it okay if we all mutually agree to never mention 308 on this board? I think that would be good for everyone

It could be made A Rule, I suppose.

[Hatman 🍁]

If someone has a sh**tty projection, and no one else has any projection, then clearly someone has the best projection around.

Except someone else does have projections.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Oh?

[Hatman 🍁]

Are we talking about the NDP leadership race? Because, then maybe only he does... but those aren't projections, really.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Anything is a projection.

[Holmes]

NDP memberships on the rise in Quebec. Good news for Mulcair. I wonder if the Liberals will have effective membership drives during their leadership race... in 2 years? And the BQ's leadership race seems to be either really secretive, or boring. No one seems to care.

[RogueBeaver]

Quebec: BC still has 30,000 though. And even if Quebec continues expanding at their current rate they won't catch up. Long-term, Quebecers don't become party members regardless of party- even the BQ.

Liberals: They're having primaries, so presumably they'll sell a few more memberships.

[DL]

Quebec: BC still has 30,000 though. And even if Quebec continues expanding at their current rate they won't catch up. Long-term, Quebecers don't become party members regardless of party- even the BQ.

I'm not so sure about that. I just read that even after the debacle last May, the BQ supposedly has over 50,000 members in Quebec and I think the Liberals and PQ have each well over 50,000 members. I'm not sure how many members the federal Liberals and Tories have in Quebec...would be interesting to find out.

I would not be surprised if by Feb. 18 NDP membership in QC triples again to about 15,000. The 59 Quebec MPs half of whom back Mulcair and several of whom are backing other candidates are only just beginning to systematically promote NDP memberships in their ridings. It is not at all unusual for incumbent MPs to have riding associations with at least 300 card carrying members.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Here are the new Quebec numbers combined with the old numbers from other provinces

BC - 30,000
Ontario - 22,000
Manitoba - 10,307
Alberta - 9,000
Saskatchewan - 8,974
Quebec - 5,000
Atlantic and North - 13,024

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also, on the earlier 308 discussion; unless I am convinced otherwise, I am going to presume that Nash is the "3rd candidate" and will be the only other person, other than Mulcair and Topp, on the 2nd last ballot. I also don't see Topp being in 3rd on that ballot so that means Nash would have to edge out Mulcair.

How would Mulcair react to being 3rd in the race?
Could Nash beat Topp?

On the latter, I do not think Nash could beat Topp.

[Holmes]

Brian Topp's website sez the first leadership debate will be on December 4th, in Ottawa.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

308 posted more projections. I looked at this error margins and this is what I've been able to come up with:
Topp  31.2% - 57.1%
Mulcair 34.5% - 14.5%
Nash 29.2% - 9.2%
Chisholm - 13.5% - 0% (cont)
Culle - 13.3%
Dewar -12.5%
Ashton - 12.4%
Saganash - 11.8%
Singh - 10%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

When I was right in predicting the election, I used my gut, and, numbers to restrain my gut. Like a belt, I will use these numbers to show where I think the race is.

Scenario 1 : Topp on Top
Topp - 50.1%
Mulcair - 25.0%
Others - 24.9%

Scenario 2 : Mulcair breakthough
Topp - 33.4%
Mulcair - 33.3%
Others - 33.3%

Scenario 3 : Nash Smash
Topp - 33.3%
Nash - 25.0%
Mulcair - 24.9%
Others - 16.8%

Scenario 4 : Mullin Cullen
Topp - 33.3%
Mulcair - 25.0%
Nash - 13.4%
Cullen - 13.3%
Others - 15.0%

Scenario 5 : The Dewar Lure
Topp - 33.3%
Mulcair - 25.0%
Nash - 12.6%
Dewar - 12.5%
Others - 16.6%

Which of these scenarios will play out on the first ballot will depend on the campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

Personally, I'm hoping Nash wins.

[Holmes]

I think Mulcair's gonna be my first choice.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Dewar will be in third, not Nash. That seems to be the buzz anyways.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

New membership numbs
Ontario - 25,722
Alberta - 8,361
NS - 2,600
NL - 1,184

Total - 95,006

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

BC - 31,456
ON - 25,722
Man - 10,514
SK - 9,442
AB - 8,361
QC - 5,558
NS - 2,600
NL - 1,184
PE - 169

Not included : NB, TR
NB in September: ~300
Supposedly there are now ~1000 in NB
As well, estimated 201+ in TR