2012 NDP leadership convention

[Smid]

Wanting to vote for a particular candidate for party leader is, perhaps, not the greatest reason to join a political party.

That's the main reason anyone joins parties in Canada (that and nomination contests)

It's interesting how different our two political cultures are. Over here, signing up members for this purpose would be called branch stacking and is heavily frowned-upon (and often criticised in the media and by people whose opponents have signed up many new members).

[Smid]

Moving on, I assume resident Dippers approve of Topp's "junk the Senate, institute PR" ideas?

I don't, but I think most dippers will. I say, keep the Senate, but elect it *with* PR.

Personally, I like this idea.

[Smid]

Wasn't there a high-profile female MP booted from the NDP caucus for opposing SSM a few years ago?

Bev Dejarlais - Member for Churchill. Subsequently hired by Harper after she was expelled from the NDP. She ran as an independent in 2006, splitting the vote and thus allowing the Liberals to win the seat in that election.

[Smid]

So will many BC seats swing to NDP?

Hmmm... NDP would strengthen their hold on the two Surrey seats they picked up last election, the reduced Liberal vote in Vancouver South (due to loss of incumbency) would help bring them close or in a winning position there (take a look at the Council poll map), depending on incumbent popularity, could probably pick up Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Island North and Nanaimo-Albirni? West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea-to-Sky Country might be a bit too far, but if the Liberal vote declines enough, they could be competitive there? I don't have my maps and vote spreadsheets in front of me, so I could be mistaken in some of these and there could be others I'm overlooking (V-Quadra?).

[Smid]

Of course in the next election if the federal Liberals are led by Bob Rae and the NDp by Thomas Mulcair there will be a weird role reversal where the Liberals will be stigmatized by being led by a man known for being a totally incompetent "tax and spend" premier - who managed to do both very incompetently, while NDP will be led by a man who was widely viewed as having been a competent cabinet minister in a Quebec government led by an ex-Tory leader!!

By 2015, the NDP may start to look like the moderate centre left pragmatic party that any suburbanite can be comfortable with - while the Liberals are stuck with Bob Rae's legacy and prattle on about euthanasia and drugs.

If the Liberals are squeezed from both sides, and the two alternative governments are either Tory or Dipper, swinging voters will likely begin to vote accordingly, and be comfortable with either. BC and Manitoba both are effectively two-party with the NDP and a party on the right (although BC may be changing to three parties, and then possibly change again into an NDP vs BC Conservatives two-party system... remains to be seen). Regardless, the NDP has demonstrated that it can perform well and attract swinging voters when it is a credible alternative government.

[Smid]

Furthermore, it's not like the NDP is substantially different from Labour/Labor parties in Australia and the UK, nor are Canadian voters likely to be substantially different from voters in those two countries, and swinging voters there don't have too many problems swinging from Conservative to Labour or Liberal to Labor. The NDP is potentially where British Labour was in the 1920s, and where Australian Labor was even before then.